Member Info for Velo

iWeb v AJ Bell v HL (and maybe IG who do ISA's too).

Apologies to Jack and Simon19.(& anyone else) Just couldn't fit it in today. Had a CH/Hot Water boiler leak that got worse on Sunday, so tied up with that today (Repaired now).

However, intend getting the broker test comparison done and posted tomorrow.

Faultsman @ "....tell that chap that has zero faith in BT to invest his money in BT shares rather than buy a house, whats the worse that could happen. "

I think you're guilty of no more than speed reading there. The person concerned has more "faith" in BT than you or almost anyone else on this forum. It was not some newbie with "zero faith in BT" as you put it - but the exact opposite. The most bullish investor on BT I know of.

I doubt very much there are any investors on here with a bigger £holding than he holds, who for the second time wondered aloud about his new house and investing and had already made it clear he wasn't going to risk the house money, so I attempted to confirm my concurrence with his decision. Repeat: He is no newbie.

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I'm concerned by your admission of:

" ....anyway I am utterly knackered as been up all night gambling on line and it takes it out of you..".

Perhaps you were engaged in some kind of humorous satire that has gone completely over my head, as I take that statement at face value. If it is a joke, I don't get it. But with such a serious issue as implied in your sentence, I will desist from any form of baiting.

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Incidentally your line of sarcasm on: "... and then writing it on here so I look big and clever, then when it all goes tits up just go all quiet for a few months..."

I take it you're referring to my absence from approx last November until this month, yes?

If so, it was supposed to be permanent. I have to admit I have discovered that the more I engage posting on forums - the worse I become in devoting quality time to my regular personal investing. And that was my sole reasoning for skipping bail. And it did do the trick. Yet here I am again, back on this forum, failing to stick to my resolutions. Lack of personal discipline on my part.

FYI, I will be attempting v soon to reduce my contributions to something like either no more than one (maybe two) per week or per month, or better still, infrequently. I hope I succeed as I think all will agree, forum posting can get out of hand and become addictive :)

It's a confession - I invest better when I cut out excessive forum posting, that's all.

The following comment is not directed at you F/man - but the originator/s of the utterly meaningless:

" Do not invest any money you cant afford to lose".

What claptrap! I have never, ever in my life, ever met anyone who has lose thousands of ££££'s and say:

"On the bright side, I can afford to lose all that money". (because I had too much to start with, or more money than I needed????)

Only the seriously wealthy could get away with saying that. "I can afford to lose money". Sheesh. Do they know it's THOUSANDS we lose, and not the odd fifty quid?

Who can AFFORD to lose thousands without so much ass a bye or leave. Who?

Who, on this forum will be the first to say, the corallory of 'don't invest more than you can afford to lose' which is

- Yeah, I can afford to lose money?

If so, a) You're overpaid or

b) Nicking stuff shoplifting.

Only millionaires and beyond could ever get away coming out with that load of codswallop.

New motto required. I hate that one and nobody takes a blind bit of notice of it anyway, do they?

- It's used soley by preachers - to preach I am holier than thou, mantras on to the lower orders.

Rant over. Carry on :)

Fleccy - Good rebuttal to my post last night, despite my not being fully on board with the last sentence of your main paragraph that commences:

"I suspect that Vodafone could have maintained the dividend......."

and closes with

"......pressure was applied to the board members externally".

- Good rebuttal, nonetheless.

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"....I'm dying to sink more cash into both companies, my head is telling me that I might need all my spare cash to find the right house, so I'm reluctant to tie up more cash.... "

Then don't use any more additional cash at all (instead see suggestion below). To assist in this, you have now summarily been served with a Cease and Desist order; activated upon reading this. It is now enacted. The house comes first - No contest!

Suggestion:
To help control your urges, maybe decide which is the share you currently favour more/think might pull ahead of the other, and sell some (some as in a small tranche only) of the 'slower' share (Ha! Now there's a question:) and then use that cash generated, to buy the one you favour more - and reverse the whole process in the opposite direction should things later change position in the future, and so on.
That might nail your urges until actually sitting in the new house.

If that sounds too much like a distant cousin of trading, rather than investing, then your final thought sounds the much safer, better decision, and ultimately - the only option.

Well if the dog's tipping it - I'm in!!!

I've seen what octopuses can do predicting major football tournaments. So if anyone's got a pet octopus then I'm sorry halfpenny - your dog would be toast.

Simon, with Jack's input, your initial post has now resulted in setting me off on my own quest.

I will run some dummy test quotes on Monday, or later in the week if overly busy, and report back here under this thread, on the results of a three way test between:

iWeb . v . AJ Bell . v . HL

and try to have all three open at the same time live on tabs, for ultra fair comparison.

I'll use VOD as the first test then a smaller share (Hils) that I 'felt' I had received a poor price offer from iWeb.

- It'll only be possible to get buy price comparisons in this experiment, but that will do.

Meant to mention I was with Selftrade many years ago. Loved it then, but it got sold and their platform changed.

It looked like somebodyhad hired a teenager to do it in their bedrrom. Dreadful after that. I was out fast. So nil points for Selftrade they were £12 odd per trade back in the day, too.

.

Jack @ "...They use 32 different places to get best execution prices.....For regular traders, what you save in cheaper commission can cost you in worse execution prices.."

That must be it, one of the reasons I prefer HL

A few weeks ago I sold a share that had more than doubled in price. I'd held it so long that I had forgotten that if you caught it on the wrong day the spread could bite you on the bum, or that's what I thought until your reminder of HL's 30 odd places to check for best price.

I was using iWeb to sell it. Hardly done any selling on iWeb - all buying mostly. The price offerred was obnoxiously low. Checked HL and thir prices seemed much, much keener.

Confused I checked AJBell. They too were better than iWebb but dearer than HL

Thinking it was just a blip I returned to iWeb and the price on offer had gotten better somewhat but still not as good as the other two. Didn't dare waste any more time so had no option but to accept the sell price of iWeb.
A little bit dissapointed by the net funds received I went back for a third round of checks and yep HL was the best and it wasn't a blip. I felt peeved all that day, muttering: They saw me coiming, the blaady rob dogs etc.,etc., etc.,

But you've just reminded me how much of HL I take for granted. The only reason I don't have ISA's in HL is fear of a broker bankruptcy, so I spread my funds around for safety should brokers go under. Think I'll do a bit more checking and comparisons with say dummy buys on all 3 brokers and compare. I might yet open an ISA within HL if it pans out.

Want to check if that heavy SIPP monthly fee would count towards letting me off a bit for an ISA account with them.

That's another thing, HL available to speak to, by phone all Sat mornings. No chance with the other two Isa brokers.

My own post has triggerred a potential considerastion for the REAL reason for the price crash in BT when I posted this bit:

".. Jansen. He was forced to announce no cut - but could say only as far as this year and next guaranteed. (So it's open season on the divi after next year)."

If Fleccy's view holds water that these price crashes are soley to do with divis, could it then be said that the market is way ahead of us private investors in reading between the lines of CEO's doublespeak?

Jansen said specifically guaranteed that the divi was being maintained for the this year and next. Full stop. Then he addressed other matters.

Reading between the lines means that after next year is over the divi is up for consideration of being cut.
So did those big funds decide to get out now as with a reduced divi in the future they think they can be better served with what they regard as something more reliable for the future?

Is that it? Is that the reason? That the market believes the divi WILL be cut for certain after next year????

Fleccy, don't overlook other possibilities.

In November the new VOD CEO, Assured the market (assured!) that the divi was safe and would be maintained (was progressive but now "maintained"). Barely 6 months later he shows what a dithering indecisive clot he is with no forward vision capabilities when he annouces sorree peeps - I am going to cut the div after all (and then I think labelled future divis as back to progressive).

Did the market in VOD really tank because the divi was cut? Or maybe they've just been made aware they now can't count on reliable certainty any more? Funds can't plan to pay pension holders with any degree of reasonable certainty, faced with a 'oops I've changed my mind again' type of CEO.

As I recall, it zoomed up to XD day last November was it to 170p's? Then it too crashed back to earth and was in a terrible state by the time of this just released update. You might say baked-in. But the SP crashed from the time of going XD in November and instead of coming out of that XD period and returning to pre-XD price come January, it continued dropping like a stone ever since.

I'm not buying that the SP of VOD stayed up once confirmed the divi wasn't being cut. It fell and stayed fallen!

He announced it cut a few days ago yes, but the SP dissapointed more IMO due to the market realising the VOD CEO is a ditherer and not to be trusted to change his mind on a dime rather than do due diligence and plan ahead. He's a former highly qualified accountant - and yet he can't decide from a couple of months ago to the next, to stick with a decision. The market HATES uncertainty. I don't accept your explanation for VOD's current SP malaise is due to a divi cut. It would drop some but it had already dropped big time and now it's dropped so much it too is in oversdold territory.

There is IMO more to VODA price crashing than just a divi cut alone.

halfpenny - I would dearly like to borrow your dog. How much does he charge for mowing lawns? 2 tins of pedigree or 4 per lawn?

Yes got an iWeb account for a new ISA a year or two back. Was searching for a cheap as chips, broker - and this is it - a fiver a trade Bazinga! Mission accomplished.
But a very dull, no frillls, basic platform - waddya expect for a fiver? :)

- (But I have been spoilt using the platform of one of the country's best broker's, more of them in a moment.)

Before that I had and still do have in active use an A.J Bell account at £9.95 per trade and charges of a couple of quid per quarter.of £7.95 - less if you just have a a couple of grand in.

Freebie - Keep a minimum of £4k in this account and you get Shares magazine free every month. Online only these days.

Their platform is okay but I had issues with them being down, and iffy phone response, so really searched for a cheap un and got iWeb. Both platforms are okay , but if you want the best platform experience by far, telephone help etc., then it's no contest - it's HL - Hargreaves and Lansdown.

I thoroughly and highly recommend them above all others - but they are pricey. Keep my 6 figure SIPP in there - £11.99 per trade and £16.99 per month MONTH account fee. Doesn't put me off. They're good. The best. Recomended.

Also don't be afraid that there's some law that says you're only entitled to one broker - If it's for your ISA's you could open a new account every year - I've got 5 accounts all told. Each for a different purpose.

That reminds me - don't go for an ISA account with IG - as many say here and there. It's rubbish for ISA's. Best keep IG for what they're the best at - spreadbetting.

Also have an account with SpreadEX another spreadbetter.
Nicer charts than IG but for spreadbetting on a regular basis it's IG for me.
SpreadEX is for easing complications - one for shorting the other acc for longs

To sum up:

1) iWeb is bladdy cheap, but basic platform.

2) HL is the best in the country but pricey, it's got all the bells and whistles - bootiful plarform; beware it'll ruin you for any other platform -but you will fall in love with it.

"...I have a feeling that Put Options are going to start to be sold and next week we could start to see some result of that"

Seconded!

Had a further two bullish indications tonight to add to my assertion that that the SP is oversold and due some respite soon. That's as far as I'm prepared to go - respite :)

1) Clear change from distribution to accumulation. It has ceased diving and has levelled and slightly lifting as of tonight. Price usually capitulates in the following days in the same direction (usually; not always). So I believe you're on to something with those "big trades" that you're "not convinced are all sells". AGREED - provisionally.

2) The price action today closed with a Doji candlestick - and that's good news at the bottom of a downtrend - it (USUALLY:) indicates indecision by the market. Indecision in that the market could be on the turn and undecided on chasing the SP down.

Accumulation indicates there is some off book dark pools buying going on, that is not yet reflected in the price.

Both those do not indicate a rally, but a change may be under way of some sort. But bullish indications ARE becoming more visible. That's all.

( Concludes) ....

......The media reports tell that du Pessy was adamantly against a cut, so were a majority of the board, so a compromise was reached to placate Jansen. He was forced to announce no cut - but could say only as far as this year and next guaranteed. (So it's open season on the divi after next year). When the market received the decent results (curtsy of ol' departed Gavpants) they were unimpressed by a lack of immediate vision by the new CEO - they had heard his plan for the future before last year from Gavpants 1, the plan was the same but being delivered to all intents and purposes by Gavpants 2.

The SP tanked immediately and hasn't stopped since. They weren't buying that a facsimile of Gavpants amounted to change - he was saying the same things. He was bound and gagged by the newly empowered du Plessy and certain board members. The new CEO is a wimp. His strings pulled by du Plessy. The market wasn't fooled. The results were fine - as promised by ol' Gavpants - forget the market disliked the trading results - the results were fine.

Jansen should have done as I suggested at the time. Threatened to resign on the spot unless full CEO authority was made available to him. The consequences of the anybody-will-do-as-a-CEO resigning would have been catastrophic for the company and IMO they would have had to capitulate to Jansen - and his first action should then have been to have told the board: "Now fire du Plessy, or get another CEO".

When the media got hold of that, his authority would have been stamped on BT AND THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN NO SP CRASH - which as of tonight none of us is any the wiser as to when this price crash will cease tanking.

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1) du Plessy MUST be replaced.

2) After a new chairman is installed, those board members who failed to support the CEO's call for a divi cut must get the boot too.

But is Jansen 'man enough' to do that, or is he riding the gravy train into retirement and riches galore? He hasn't impressed with his backbone so far. He failed to get any changes whatsoever, to anything.

3) So eventually if no improvement after all that, it's a new CEO required too.

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But first, start with action No:1.

(Cont)....

Finally, they got one! Jansen. How did he feel about not being the desirable first choice, nor the second best choice, nor the third choice but a panic slot-in a last minute, anyone will do choice? Hardly confidence inspiring to anyone - how would you feel, wanted or tolerated? It had taken so long that Gavpants was asked to stay on even longer - to just a few months ago!

My point is the chairman fecked up big time. Had he and the board planned ahead, they would have contacted the head hunter in confidence who would ensure confidentiality as she would have had a couple of months to draw up a list of suitable candidates without speaking to any of those candidates whilst Gavpants beavered away, unaware he was a dead man walking. But it was a panic induced decision, so she spent all summer searching. Had it been planned, as each candidate declined, she would have swiftly moved on to the next as she would already have a prepared list. Instead each time she had to search. No interviews took place because the 'chosen ones' all declined! And if you want more evidence of Chairman DuPlessy's incompetence for he is the head I'm calling for, listen to this (you should recall it well).

When Jansen was unveiled to the public (and again we have to rely on that media for this) Jansen was silent. The reporter asked Jansen directly if his appointment meant the dividend would be examined for a cut and would Openreach be sold off completely? The reporter was amazed that the chairman, Jan du Plessis, barged in front and LOUDLY announced there would be no dividend cut and no tolerance of any changes to Openreach as it was board policy. Jansen never uttered a word. du Plessy was exercising his new found power.

Silent under Gavpants, now he ruled the roost through the board. Want more proof? Fast forward to this last month or so, and you couldn't miss a deluge of media reports citing a tussle in the BT boardroom with Jansen calling for a dividend cut to help finance the 5G budget and so that would stamp his authority on that he had "arrived". The media reports tell that du Pessy was adamantly against a cut, so were a majority of the board, so a compromise was reached to placate Jansen. He was forced to announce no cut - but could say only as far as this year and next guaranteed. (So it's open season on the divi after next year). When the market received the decent results (curtsy of ol' departed Gavpants) they were unimpressed by a lack of immediate vision by the new CEO - they had heard his plan for the future before last year from Gavpants 1, the plan was the same but being delivered to all intents and purposes by Gavpants 2.

(Cont)...

First off, after the summing up of today's price action below, believe it or not, I'm still 51% optimistic that this escapade can conclude without ever breaking past 200p.
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Right. Consider this. Who's fault is this debacle?

Go back to last year and after delivering the year end results with an excellent plan for the future (still in force today) Gavpants must have watched in disbelief as the SP crashed straight to the 200 vicinity. It had been falling since early 2016 without let up, apart from the odd rally here and there. The much criticised Gavpants (by us all, bar one:) was singled out and fired immediately. The SP plunge immediately floored, and eventually lifted away to enjoy the best rally since the all time high of early 2016. Why was he fired?

For some reason unknown to me, the FT set up an investors meeting to gauge investors sentiment as rumours were circulating that there was to be a major shareholder revolt in demanding Gavpants be replaced. It turned out just one individual was behind it all, a wealthy, large holding, active-investor, as they call themselves or some such. One reporter revealed that far from all the major investors demanding the change of the CEO, it was mainly just that one major active-investor. Their were murmurs in nodding agreement but one guy was making all the noise as a self appointed spokesperson. The reporter mentions this fact because he was surprised Gavpants was fired so quickly after that meeting, and offered that the BT board were using investor dissatisfaction to hide behind, because all he could witness was one important investor doing all the talking. Hardly an investor revolt brewing at all.

I mention all that preamble because, subsequently, a litany of Carry-on comedy ensued in which the initial star replacement candidate publicly turned BT's offer down point blank. Then candidate after candidate turned down the so-called poisoned chalice. The chairman, who acting on the board's wishes had fired Gavpants, announced a candidate would be selected by October at the latest, and installed in the ensuing months and Gavpants had been asked to extend his notice and stay until Christmas. October arrived and early on all was quiet, it had been a PR disaster for the hunt of a new CEO.

Finally, they got one! Jansen. How did he feel about not being the desirable first choice, nor the second best choice, nor the third choice but a panic slot-in a last minute, anyone will do choice? Hardly confidence inspiring to anyone - how would you feel, wanted or tolerated? It had taken so long that Gavpants was asked to stay on even longer - to just a few months ago!

(Cont).....

Well, what do you make of today?

I happened to be near a screen when it was showing the big 200 itself and I think this has been the most nerve-racking day for BT since I first looked seriously at BT just 2 or 3 years ago. If you couldn't hear your heart pounding in your rib cage today, when 200 turned up, then you're just not taking this clear and present danger seriously at all, are you? :)

You can be sure the board, if they haven't already held one, are most likely holding an emergency meeting this weekend or on Monday - because the last time it headed for 200 (after a results update and got no further than 200) - they fired Gavpants out of hand with no planning and fecked up the succession planning too. And what good has that panic firing of Gavpants done? 12 months later and it's straight back to square one! Solved nothing!

I hold one man responsible for that but will post separately why - as I'm calling for his head. This is all down to him and after him being replaced, approx 25% of the board need culling and replacing too. Anyway - separate post for that.

That was shocking today, seeing 200 intraday, from a launch of the previous night's close of 204p. Whatever, even though it slipped past 201, the strength of the 201 support exerted itself and hauled it back topside. Small mercies and a phew! there. A reprieve. Can anything be made of this reprieve, or is it the last straw?

It's now a race to see if the oversold condition can climax before renewed attacks on 200 return in earnest.
50/50 I'd hazard.

Breaking past 200 and holding/closing past that will be soul destroying and sap both moral and will power for BT.
The human emotion doesn't look at 1.99 and say that's £2. It say's £1 & odd. Doesn't matter if 1.01 or 1.99, it would be bandied about as BT is now at £1. odd. It's a psychological thing, and will have serious ramifications.

Still, let's not be too quick to write off the fight back from 200 to 202. That's significant in itself. But really it's still only 'significance' in a very bad situation. It means the bears broke through and destroyed the 203 support but failed to close better or break past any further supports (which it did with ease intraday when it sat briefly on 200).

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Minimum safety on Monday is to stay put and not move a muscle below where it is tonight.

Close Monday on 202, and it'll be a positive.

The first support is now, not 201, but the big 200 - next support down is an 'acceptable' cough, 198p

- and if it gets past that, the next support is a very shocking 194p!!!

If you want this over then just a measly 2p to close at 204p would now put the SP back on the right track.

Those are close the day targets, not intraday, so hold tight if the bad un's show their face temporarily during the day. It's not over until the fat lady sings at day's end.
All IMO only.

Well sh!t in a bucket! Feck me! A reprieve!

Sink to your knees and raise arms to the Lord, singing hallelujah to heaven, praise Hosanna! You've been granted a second chance!

202!

Don't feck it up next Monday. This is not over.

Back later :)

Sheesh Geezalou! Can't stop swearing.
Holey Moley! A step back from the brink.

Missed a key word... "and you'd then be right it might be an off book BUY trade and.. "

Poker if it was an off book trade I'm hoping the accumulation distribution indicator will pick it up. But it runs 1 day behind events, so it'll be Monday before it spills the beans.

As Jack says volume has been above average heavy so it's real deal heavy selling going on and not market manipulation.
I can see that on the volume bars.

Ever since I read that the Acc/Dist indicator is also useful for monitoring off book 'dark pool' trades I've added it to my armoury of weapons. If it is a buy then with a bit of luck the Acc/Dist line will drift up, as the saying goes: volume preceeds price :)

Must say that metric ceased diving on Tuesday and appears to be levelling out a little bit - yet price has continued to drop. So if it reveals on Monday to actually start rising then that might signal the SP is next and you'd then be right it might be an off book trade and the wee acc/Dist metric would add strength to my assertion that the oversold condition is near mature.

... Right now, before your very eyes. 201 up there on the board. Not been seen since this month a year ago. It's BT's top mega support - it's as strong as 300 Spartans. It has to stand fast.

Noticed it repelled the bears a few minutes ago but back to 201 again. This is serious. 201 must hold.

I'd be saying the same at 200 and 199 as all 3 are the same 200 support.

But first 201 is the name of the game.

Spartans, take your shields and rise up!!!