Member Info for Velo

Democracy @ Velo What are your opinions on us seeing 10 pounds again then?!?!?

That little algo just said £10 on Nov 14th at 10:32am. But it spluttered and refuses to divulge which year.

PS. BT beat Vod with more ticks. (Actually included your ULVR and made it a 3-way contest).
Think BT still won, would have to set the contest up again to be sure. But in the first run, BT beat VOD.

I couldn't possibly comment on that outcome - that would have been between the algo, the computer, and you :)

Avrohom - sorry I failed to reply to your request a month or so back. Actually saw it, but no free time to actually post only sneakily glance at phone screens, as was away up north. Have access to a lttle thing that I never use (was it VOD & BT from memory?) and it lists all the metrics the average private investor needs to know (the ones I use myself) but cutting out all the needless ones. It's diplayed nicely with green cartooney-like ticks against the winner in each category. It's an algo so takes me 0.5 of a second to set it up, but try and copy the result to a post ....... jumbled, messy. If back here could have convetted to a PDF and posted on one of the free hosting sites and you could have seen a side-by-side comarison as to who had the best divi, the safest divi etc., the least risk, the best P/E and so forth. Strangely for an algo the cheeky thing makes you add up all the ticks manually; what too tired after all that Mr Algo?

But saw later you'd reached a decision, so abandoned it. My reply would have been much the same answer as below - non-commital as difficult, but would have let the computer offer up a comparison and would have posted it elsewhere other site than here, but not to be. Hope in the end you're happy with your final decision.

(Concludes Part 2 >>>)

. . . You have to "give up" some of the floor and lose a penny or so, for the comfort of seeing a turnaround at low prices but nonetheless a few pence above the true floor.

Here's a quote from so many mega guru billionaire investors I forget which book to mention it came from - as they all say it - and it's when they're asked how they became so wealthy they reply: "I never buy at the bottom and I never sell at the top". Logical if you digest it for a moment or two. They go for the bulk of the meat and don't risk losses on tops and bottoms.

A billionaire called Tudor Jones claims to have done very well at those tops and bottoms, nonetheless.

So no, sorry, I just don't have a view on price in 12 months hence, even though
I've recently left a 3 page post on one stock telling them all IMO (nicely) the SP is well and truly f*k*d for the next 12 months - but that's a profit warning hit stock and I have loads of data on those situations, which truly are a different kettle of fish entirely, IMO.

Just looking now with the day's end price and extended trend lines to show that potentially the SP could (not will) could IMO retrace as far as 150 and if it's a mind to rebound there.

Before then, there's a natural support at 180's-ish.
Could that stop the rot?

However initially, give these lower 190's time to assert their authority and end this. They are in close breathing space to the 200 day moving average (193-ish). To me that's virtually one and the same thing, Just sliding under the 200 day average. Yes, you may just have bought/topped-up lucky. I don't know. So, 3 possible scenarios.

150?
180's?
Here @ low 190's?

All 'natural' supports.

I don't know for sure so I follow like a lap dog and wait a few pence to confirm it's over.
But the price 12 months hence?
- Hell no, no one does, sorry.

Now watch it do anything but settle on any one of those three :)

(Part 1 of 2)
" I would value both of your opinions regarding your 12 month price target. Thanks in advance."

I would much prefer an easier question like: Does God exist and/or What is the meaning of life?
- I'd get the answers to those two, long before the 12 month price target.

I'm a trend follower so I follow price. I don't predict price. So I can only extend trend lines in the current direction and say "If this continues and, that's a big IF, the SP could hit say, 200, by such and such a date...." If, if, and could, may, might.

Once the SP is strongly trending, things get a whole lot easier to see. And the long term near 4 years old DOWNtrend is still not broken. That's a fact. But it did get well and truly broken last year for a period. Fooled every professional, fund managers, private investor, inc myself, et al in the world - and that was the massive breakout to the upside from May'18 to the last day of November 2018. Party time.

It would have been seared into your memory forever via my posts as I would have been "posting me head orff", but I was on one of my regular "I'm giving up forum posting" attempts and was missing in action.

That has been the most massive change to trend since Jan 2016. HUGE!
But in line with a worldwide retrace round about then, late Nov - it gave it all up.

The 2nd massive occasion looks like it's just ending - is incredibly - right now. It's what I was alluding to when I brought up mention of the 200day ma last night, about "a ton of stuff" it was all trend charting price stuff - but I was still finishing off on fundamentals so couldn't expand. (Leave it for another day).

I hope anyone deciding to buy whilst this is retracing again, doesn't try and call the bottom and instead divides their allotted investment money into tranches and then should the SP continue surprising to the downside there's money available each time you think it's hit the vicinity of the floor.

Currently, Ultra short term, flibberty gibbet, trend lines have confirmed the SP is bearish, as have short term trend lines my (day to day fav's).
Medium long term to Ultra long term trend lines (previously before this week close to looking like doing a similar big May'18 copy-cat breakout, but that's evaporated) they too, are still wearing a sour down trending face.

Not one single trend line, or TA indicator is bullish. So pick a floor.
In circumstances like this I wait until the SP commences to turn to the upside and confirms, which means like true professionals you're guaranteed to have seen the floor just behind you, surprises over and can start buying. But what do we private investors love doing most?

- Bet the house on what they deem is the floor, only to witness the SP go arrogantly sailing past to lower ground.

You have to "give up" some of the floor and lose a penny or two, for the comfort of seeing a turnaround at low prices but nonetheless accept it's a few pence above the true floor.

(Continues p

Yes, it was £10.53 or something.

Go to Yahoo Finance.

Enter as BT-a

then click historical prices

adjust the dates to 25th December 1999 to 3rd Jan 2000 in that back to front illogical US way and you'll see it was £10.53 at Christmas 1999.
(30th December)

It actually intraday-ed higher that week up to £10.58 !!!
If it wasn't for that bladdy dotcom crash that got in the way - £11???

Wait - here:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BT-A.L/history?period1=946080000&period2=949190400&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d

It might m/not go there in one jump.

Not a myth - £10 by Christmas.

As Alf Ramsey told the England in 1966: "You've done it once - now go out and do it again!"

Pah to £5. Think bigger.... :)

£5 SP gets cited all the time - but BT were £10.50-odd per share in 1999 just before entering into the dotcom bubble crash.

Anyone hear still holding from 1999?

If so you can tell Fleccy, (in the shakey grandpa's voice from The Simpson's):
" Fleccy you might be down, well that's nothing. I'm still waiting for £10 by Christmas".

Velo stands up and calls out defiantly: "I'm UT "

"Up an down more than a sl*ts knickers."

No, they were up and down like a page 3 model's bazooka's in a wet teeshirt competition whilst bouncing on a trampoline.
Or as someone else once remarked, up and down like a turd in a kids sandpit.

Aww bugger, only just noticed the SP. That's the 200 day gone for a burton then. Feck!

PEG was designed in Britain by stockmarket genius guru, Jim Slater, primarily for small stocks alone.

Giants of FTSE100 indices have a tough time coming in under 1.0 and it's no shame if they don't. That metric was NOT designed for large conglomerates.

(There's a guru in the US that the yanks say he devised its construction - Peter Lynch.)
But he only made it famous by using it to make gazillion billions as a fund manager. I like to think British Jim Slater is the guy and that's all you'll read in the UK media, but in actual fact it was devised way back in 1969 by, some guy with a name who escapes me but sounds a lot like the Italian Mario the plumber game guy.

So don't beat up on BT by citing a poor showing on the PEG. Use net debt and horrible leverage (net gearing).

Just checked my stuff and it's so bad that it's n/a because it's incalculable for BT. So I'm amazed S/Wall Street can even come up with a figure for free.

So, what's it saying on Simply/Wall St, Fleccy?
How far away and above 1.0 is it?

Yes their Disc C/FLow model is a bit enthusiastic on SP's. It cheers you up when feeling down and you mutter maybe they're right they could be. It's probably prevented/ delayed many a suicide Lol.

"Simply wallstreet are idiots."
Bit harsh :) Can't agree with that sentiment.
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" The share price has been going only one way since early 2016 and that is DOWN."

Bit late in the day, correction: bit late in the decade, to use that as a final decision to sell up? Would be easier to count the people who aren't aware of that, than those who are :)

But we each have our last straw. Mine was with IMB in the summer. Traded it a bit and lowered my average then some time later sold the lot for less loss than would otherwise be the case. Lucky - as a profit warning came out in September and another price crash ensued, so I feel I know its next 12 months "probable" trajectory after which its not beyond credibility that I may even pick it up again in a year's time lol!

Thanks D, but not really back for long. Just wanting to stick my nose into the interim's and sniff around as planning to cut back all my forum posting everywhere (yet again lol :) after the house brokers analysts forecasts for BT's Q3 trading released maybe a day or two after Vod's H1 next week.

- Always try hard on regular basis to cut back, but nearly always break that resolution and creep back. Forums can be fun but too addictive, can they not :) ?

AW100 @ "Make sure you send the letters recorded delivery."

Hah! LOL!
Several of those analysts sport well weird fully-on French/Germanic/Greek-ish names. And a lot of foreign-based sounding brokerage houses involved too.

What if the French contingent confirm back (because they can be bolshy when it suits)

Dear Velo viv the fake French ID,
Ve are on to you - you are Engleeshmun, no?

You no in EU now, so we no obliged to share anything weeth Englanders now. No security sharing - natheeng. I know natheening. Oh justy a meenuite a collegue remind me you steel a EU member state yet, and no leave until maybe next year? Okay I geet back to you.
But after we no talk again, you go away okay?"

Fleccy, bare in mind Simply Wall Street arrive at that using the Discounted Cashflow method which involves a guess of the next three years interest rate, (amongst several other things also) so that metric is often referred to by cynics as a rubbish in-rubbish out, metric. I don't like it. I prefer the dead simple company P/E v industry average P/E method, but the result of that is . . . that therefore you can keep that forecast as is.

Err... ehm, Right I'm off then, before someone says well then so I really shouldn't have posted that? S'pose so. Comes under the heading of 'just sayin'.

Come off it moderators. What's with the **** ?

What you can't say -

co - .cky. now?

Oooh 194/195 - thank god. Knew it would prob bounce of the 200day sma!
(Subconscious numbskulls: No you didn't, feint chance you said).

Anyway; nice to see that on opening up the computer screen, but barely an hour+ gone yet, so don't get ****y about the SP. (That's you; don't you get ****y because the SP is blue - not me, I'm not ****y).

But anyway, to the point: Have only raced to correct an error comparison I THOUGHT I'd made last night. Turns out I did - but figures are much the same anyway. Could have said nowt but I've started now. I mainly used last year's results to contrast and compare the pounds and pence fundamentals as they're directly viewable, but not the ratios, have to reconstruct and in doing so inadvertently used Oct 2018 for them instead of Oct 2019 as wanted to see the metrics before the H1 update. Well needn't have worried, fractions in difference of no consequence, and that was only the Pre-H1 FCFlow that was at issue. Still all as posted. (Had convinced myself I was going to have to post a correction).
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Notice a reference to farmers below - and that sort of answers a query I had but was outside my area of research. When Jansen did the deal with Johnson and appeared to have agreed a (an impossible) political target of 2025 to complete all the work, Boris Johnson agreed to help on 3 fronts Jansen complained about in return for his compliance to agree 2025 for completion.

One, was he would get Ofcom to take a hike from now on.

Two, was the Gov would award BT some grants to help with the cash workload and
3, was a new one to me.

- Jansen complained that holding back BT was the issue of landowners denying access to BT, in the quest to get all this work done. That too has been agreed (I suppose through the same type of local council compulsory legal orders similar to we're compulsory buying your house so we can build a motorway/ High speed train link/airport through it.

What puzzled me was that landowners were a major obstacle to BT getting on with all this work. That was a brand new one to me. But seeing that post about farmers and I thought ahh they're landowners, so farmers and National Trust land too etc.,???

Until that I was thinking householders were prohibiting BT LOL!

Would be interesting if any former engineers here could confirm there is an issue with landowners hindering BT access on this major work of national importance.

Yes it does - The RNS about the 5 year tie up deal between Virgin and Vodafone

Vod had all the cream today and BT got the sour milk that was left. The market thinks BT won't be able to respond, that's why BT dropped over 4% today and VOD intra-day'ed up to 164p.

PS. Got a ton and more of stuff on the SP but just mention one. Give the SP tomorrow, a feint, very feint chance to bounce off and away from the 200 day moving average trend line. It's been beautifully above from early October until today. It's a major, major, trend line and not good if the SP sinks below it.
Not good? - Why am I channelling Donald Trump-speak?

This is only the second time in near 4 years it's been above it for what feels like more than five minutes. (For half a year above during May '18 to Dec'18). Taken years to get here and slipping under again. It's dropped to end lying just a penny below it. Fingers crossed for tomorrow then. In fact give it the rest of the week to lift above it. Because if it doesn't . . . . . .

1p up, that's all that's needed to signal an attempt to get back above.

4% drop in one day - for a FTSE100 company?!? - is beyond unacceptable.