Member Info for Velo

Yes, last I checked net gearing (leverage) was "good" - really good!

The concern is what will the landscape look like when that circa €21b finally changes hands? Looking for such answers tomorrow.

(220 day ma)
Tsk! Typo!

= (200 day ma) !!!

The current blue 2% SP uplift intraday is significant. The liferaft (220 day ma) is just 2pence away. Come on BT that's an easy ask (say over today and tomorrow - if it's a mind to).
Whatever, low 190's would be a reasonable stay over tonight to reconsider if last week's SP drift down has weaknesses. Nice accumulation in volume all morning and so far.

" Liberty debt are out of the way so "

Not so sure it is.

Do you have any more info on that H-hi?

The physical deal is done yes, but I've not seen the actual debt increase on the balance sheet. That's one of the things I want to bring up later /or tonight and see if there's a reveal on that issue tomorrow. Net debt is at a 5 or 6 year multi-year low as of last full year accounts, so pretty sure investors have not seen hide nor hair of that mega debt yet.

- €18b - €21b or somesuch?

" why the foaming at the mouth? "

Apologies if that's the way it came across.

Be interesting to see if Bulent74 makes any further posts. Wouldn't be surprised if they had banned him after discovering he was Last Call. A post of his highlighting how the big operators get in between your buy or sell order, micro seconds before you click buy etc., was pure Last Call in it's subject matter.

Popping back later in the day with thoughts of what, if anything, to expect in tomorrow's results.

Pity about the dates. So I'll make an assumption.

Did he enter SXX BEFORE circa Aug 2018? If he did I can't disprove he's a trend follower as it was very volatile before that (like a toy monkey on a stick).
But a poor one if he ignored the trend lines after that date, as they were crystal clear.

IF, he bought in, on AFTER Aug 2018 then he's no trend follower.

Since Aug 2018 for a year and a quarter now, SXX continues to be, and has been in a consistent, persistant, (yes better with a bit of pss's in there) down trend of horrfic proportions.

Worse, I can tell from the chart there has been a Profit warning of some sort (as there was no profit produced - ever- in the first place of course) in mid Sept just gone. Mega! Over 50% fall in one day flat!

It was falling prior to that big drop and has continued falling since then too.

Unless he was a trend follower and got caught out in one of the downdraughts and turned into a rabbit in the car headlights investor (been there, got the teeshirt, say no more)

All my losses - ALL - come entirely from thinking I could out-forecast the trendlines, or worse and I'm guilty of it - IGNORING them.

Then comes the rabbit headlines bit where in such a situation one becomes inactive, letting the situation become worse and worse.

Repeat: if he bought in on or after Aug 2018 and has held on resolutely then he's no trend follower as a simple reading of the trend lines have been unmistakebly bearish NO-STOP since that date for a year and a quarter ago. He needed someone to do him a favour and slap him hard around the back of the head to snap him out of it. It would have been an act of kindness.

Concludes > > >

-------------------

Now SXX. If possible would you be please be able to tell me the approximate date your friend entered SXX?

At first glance your friend being a trend follower 'like me' just doesn't stack up, at all. I'm looking at the SXX chart right now and it's balance sheets even though I've already been aware of it for a couple of years.

Quite frankly I'm appalled to hear of such a loss on such a highly speculative and dangerous jam tomorrow stock. I have in total, a decent 6 figure total in my portfolios. (Just seen your post as I stuck this bit on, snap! Similar 6 figures) Even so, out of this world for me to put down the stake your friend has that produced such a loss, as that loss is not the full investment, is it? Is he wealthy to be so reckless with money? What the hell was he thinking?

- No revenue therefore losses as per standard - for donkey's years!

Ridiculous loss on such a speculation.

Years of no net debt but instead a welcome surplus, last year was £11.5m surplus, good, so well funded - then by this half year an utterly unbelievable but shockingly true first time ever net debt which I am forecasting for the whole year increasing to an heard of staggering £164.5m ! ! ! (he won't have that whole year forecast figure; so mention it to him he so can put it to one side and compare it when the full years comes in, next summer).

- With no sight of a revenue let alone a profit!

Fleccy, don't want to be rude but have you been the kind of friend to him that told him what he NEEDED to hear, or have you instead, been telling him what he wanted to hear? Apologies if that causes offence.

Now if poss could you please let me know the date he invested or the multiple dates if he invested in tranches. I have a little more to add once I have the dates.

(Part 1 of 2)

I hope from the tone of my quote, I've conveyed my reluctance to remind again of the long term downtrend - as if anyone needs reminding in the first place :)

It's in context, not siding with bearish predictions of future low SP's, just highlighting I don't have credible evidence (that I can see) to refute such claims. That doesn't mean I'm a perma bear on BT like say Lamtree; far from it. I attempt to plan and plot potential escapes forming from within the long term down trend and an not be wedded to a low SP before this all ends. (Not ruling out a climb back to 193 just yet either, but we'll see after Monday close).

Which leads directly on to your question of @ " Velo, why does it matter if BT dips below 160p, or even if it goes down to 100p? "

It doesn't per se, but should the SP keep falling then recover - doing so from above 160 would be a cause for mild celebration. And if the next travails eventually resulted in a higher low . . . can you see where I'm going with this - the bouncing plane wheels along the tarmac? In short I examine every hint of a potential U-curving turn of the SP. Instead, after every adventure I see the SP get nowhere because there's always been a new low. That's why it's important (to me) to attempt to witness after one of these retraces a higher low. It would speak volumes if repeated a couple of times. So form a floor first is what I'm saying before anything.

" There's more than one way to play the market." Yes, of course couldn't agree more and if and when the opportunity presents itself (again, there have been many with BT since 2016, many) I have it in mind, using my own money, after first posting the strategy on here of producing a reasonably quick profit along the way, as I did publicly here in late 2017, and once again the following year, modest though the profit was. It will be the exact same strategy, as BT has been that reliably repetitive..

I don't see the issue with my post in general, that you highlighted. I think my post is one of, when trying to get to the bottom of something do you seek out what you prefer to hear or what you need to hear?

Do you not agree 100% that the SP has been in an over riding downtrend since early January 2016 to date? I'm continually looking for U turns, that's all.
----------------------

Now SXX. If poss

Continues > > >

Faulty, you do realise Poundf is compiled using TA (Technical Analysis metholgy?) That's a big change in your psyche then. Poacher turned gamekeeper eh :)

Checked it out last year, and instantly guessed how they were doing it because they gave a very wide min and max SP band - that's not dissimilar to a momentum trend line where a twin trend line skips across all the lows whilst an upper trend line skips across all the highs, extend them into the future and you have a min and a max with a wide margin as Poundf show. The big confirmation clue is in how it handles dividends.

Not a TA charting, candlestick, indicator nor oscillator, in the entire world can handle dividends, particularly XD Day. They all - ALL of them - including mine go into meltdown on XD day, and become hysterical screaming their feckin' heads of with SELL! SELL! SELL!

Forget which company I tested first, but one of the 3 or 4 co's they monitor had a dividend due. And true to form after the XD day every single future forecast right through the website swung wildly lower, and slowly eased back up by payment day or after in most cases.
(LOL So couldn't have been BT's divi I used on that occasion).

Ever noticed that the big forecast 1 and 2 years into the future changes constantly?

Example: You posted only last week on Nov 5th that BT's -
SP for June 2020 next year as 233.16

Friday night's close Poundf is now showing June 2020 as 157.59

(That's another classic sign of TA at work, quoting SP's to TWO decimal places of fractions. Now that's usurping Nostradamus. TWO decimal places? LOL)

Bit of a massive change there don't you think? So what are you forecasting for June next year - 233p or Friday's 157p? - Which?

Short term is absolutely fine. Worth looking at. But it's beyond every human, every computer on the planet, other than pure luck, to predict consistently, next years' prices.

The reason for the change is quite simple. the current price EACH DAY sets changes, and triggers all future prices, so a different price by close next Friday means a different future price on PoundF. Nice if we were all allowed to change future predictions the closer we got to it.

I've found short term, using the current month/next month to be quite okay, interesting as you imply, but the long term forecasts 1 and 2 years into the future? - feggedit! There are no free lunches. If you KNEW the SP 1 and 2 years from today, wouldn't you first make yourself a multi billionaire and then CHARGE a fee to everyone else who wanted your service? Nice of them to give it away for free. Short term, yes worth a look. Long term forecast?- not humanly possible.

It's a momentum trending price channel technical analysis forecast - not Harry Potter's new magic wand.

" What's your 12 month view I.e this time next year"

As previously pointed out in a post below somewhere, I'm a trend follower, so my personal view doesn't come into it. The trend is my boss. The long term trend (that's since the beginning of 2016 in this case) is resolutely down, bearish. I just can not say different to the actuality. You can have bullish "mini rallies" periodically within that longer term down trend, but you always have to be permanently aware of what's behind your back at all times if you trade/invest/gamble AGAINST the opposing, longer, bigger, prevailing trend.

So any price below the current price, that anyone else posts, I can not in all conscience disagree with as unlikely, as the evidence is bearish. You can see that all changed from May'18 to the last day of Nov '18, a true break out! But thereafter, it returned to the longer down trend again. That was a magnificent breakout attempt. It had everything - Sylvester Stallone the lot.

With this latest bull run (just ended) you could make a case for the SP, as a sort of wounded, badly shot-up, spitfire pilot coming into land, out of ammo, armed only with hope and a prayer, as his skidding wheels bounce down not once off the tarmac but two, three times or more, before finally managing to come to a halt.

My 'view' is that a third attempt at a genuine breakout (and not a wee mini rally) could be heralding just such a long bumpy landing along the tarmac, as just one more attempt would correlate to just such a scenario. I'd need to see another massive breakout attempt, doesn't matter if it fails, just needs to confirm such an hypothesis, AND much, much, more importantly, just so long if after failing, it doesn't dip lower than 160p. Not dipping below 160p is ultra important, or it's just wishful thinking.

So rather than a swift floor and the SP soars away up, maybe it's going to be a v long bumpy landing over a long period over several months (year???) before the SP finally skids along the tarmac to a halt - on the floor. Not revisiting 60p would be a start. But if it does continue to fall lower from here, then - for defo not a single penny lower than 160, NO NEW LOWS! Or the downtrend is still exerting its dark force.

This last low in late August was still yet another lower low, than all that had preceded it since the beginning of 2016, real bad news that - so if any future retraces don't sink below 160p I'd start looking to clear the landing area for potentially a final landing.

In the meantime another breakout attempt please and get me Schwarzenegger to lead this time (Or Stratham) !!

" we need BT even if got to a point where it had to be nationalised as a non profit organization..... "So BT will always be here... "

Couldn't agree more. Yes it is absolutely critical to the country. It's just I've never crystallised that thought. It may offer some comfort to long term holders seriously under water, as maybe even if it were nationalised due to some unrecoverable financial catastrophe I think the govt would allow holders to remain holders for any possible future years dividend even if the capital value of the SP was kicked into the tall grass indefinetly.

Now that's the very long term future sorted in a some sort of parallel universe scenario. All that's needed now is an accurate assessment of where the SP be in 12 months time. :) :)

Wasn't going to post further tonight as got to be up hours before the crack of dawn tomorrow, but whilst admitting you have a point Lamtree, following your assertion to it's bitter end and the ruination of BT completely, the political fallout afterwards almost guarantees BT can never go to the wall.

What if Lloyds had gone down the tubes after that bailout of public money and failed, all blamed on due to some restrictive price control order whilst under Govt control? Think of the political riot that would ensue; someone's political career would come to an end. Same for any other companies in the past if the reason for failure was given as a single restrictive govt pricing policy.

If you're right, and the govt allowed Ofcom to still impose restrictions on what BT could charge customers right up to say BT announced to the world they were filing for insolvency and cited inability to offer a credible alternative rival to customers has now reached a tipping point, but had they been allowed to function free of restrictions on a level playing field, then they might still be solvent - think of the political fallout.

BT employs - get ready for this - 106,700 employees (yes, that's yet to be reduced by 13,000 as announced previously but that will still leave 93,700 !)

Can you imagine the political fall out if the media reported on circa, one hundred thousand employees thrown on the scrapheap in one go, directly because of a single govt policy? Has there ever been a higher figure in recent history? Especially when the BOD were informing the media; not necessary if we were allowed to compete without restrictions, and at no cost to the govt, if we were allowed to be free to offer customers a competitive pricing package. Govts could fall! Not a single politician in any party in power would allow that on their watch. They'd never recover if they did.

So yes, you do have a point but in the same breath even if the SP takes longer to recover than anyone forecasts, one can be pretty sure it would almost be impossible for BT to go the wall whilst under govt restrictions. Hadn't thought of it that way before.

Hi NigeCo,

Thanks - Kind of you to say so.

Although I don't regard myself as having 'well informed comments' on BT the physical business, I do eagerly look at its SP trends and each accounts released, in a rope-my-way-through way, with help provided from subscription-paid data providers. That's why there's neary a peep from me on copper, fibre, backhaul etc.,

There's several of you on here, either former telecoms engineers or current engineers with first class knowledge and opinions on the engineering technicalities/difficulties. So that allows me to take a bystanders, eagle's eye, overall view on those - When will the roll-out be completed? When will Ofcom allow BT the freedom from govt restrictions to charge customers as it sees fit for its services in regards to market competition?

As to keep posting; I hope to become somewhat less noisy here ( and elsewhere)
after the Q3 update. Still interested in each interim release, so not a complete disappearing act.

Hi Nige,

Yes, I was in and out of VOD twice back in the day, the last out was late 2017. Only made 2 smallish profits as got out fast when things started reversing. From 2018 it was death valley to anyone buying VOD; it's only just attempting recovery now in these past few months since summer.
Good for you in entering VOD when the last worldwide stockmarket crash had more or less bottomed, yet the professional investing world was still smarting from wounds and slow to respond.

I generally don't seek out media opinions other than when I need some clarification on some factual issue, but yes generally bullish upbeat in that report. One thing in the middle of it niggles me though. The 100% misleading reporting of net profit. Quote:

"... Examining its latest results last week, the picture still looks gloomy. BT unveiled a 1 per cent drop in half-year revenues to £11.47billion, while profits were almost flat at £1.33billion... "

Whilst revenue is correct the "profits" as he calls them is v misleading.
That's PRE-TAX profits he's highlighting, not Net Profits after tax.

Besides, dividends can only be paid from net profits after tax, as it's not an expense item; and not allowable above the line. So I have a penchant for seeing net profit after tax.

And that £1.33b "profits" he mentions still has to have £265m of tax whipped away from it - and handed straight over to the taxman. They're not even bothering to differentiate anymore by delineating it as pre-tax net profit. Annoys me when they do that - and they're all at it. Careless in my view.

Net profits after tax (I shouldn't have to say 'after tax' it's implied in it's name) have shown a marked increase in the second quarter - otherwise they would be saying a lot worse than just flat!

Latest interpretations for the full year I'm seeing as an actual measurable increase over last year for net profit (Forecasts). Not a single media report hinting of that yet. Stable is their fav word currently.

So I'm keen to see the updates (next week most likely) for the future 3 years forecasts, as I just daren't post what I'm seeing on my screen for next year and the year after - in net profits only. That's net after everyone like the taxman has been paid off :)

In all this I'm seeing revenue STILL going down year after year - well into the future. I think the next update will confirm that too. Done a long piece on that and the unusual conundrum of still showing significant rise year after year into the future in net profit. But deleted the post and copy-pasted saved it as it's convoluted and rambling, need to cut it back a bit before it's respectable to be seen in public.

"I have a headache Velo."

Hope that's not from the screen glare of reading my longer posts.

Price seems to be ominously drifting lower (hope not into oversold again so soon) so brought up 10 years worth of history to re-examine. I've said in the past that in BT's case I've found BT to be ultra reliable in it's rise out of panic stricken Oversold conditions.

BT appears to be regular as clockwork in its bowel movements.

I think if this current retrace leads to yet another oversold condition I will take a small 'fun' long position (not risking big money) to show that whilst waiting long term for BT - there's fun and meat on the bone on such 'reliable' occasions to profit from.

The SP maxed out of the Overbought condition approx 22nd Oct but short term trend lines only confirmed 3 days ago. Of course ultra-short term t/lines were on the case about 24th/25th Oct. Now all indicators are confirmed bearish.

So here are the historic occasions of panic induced oversolds over past 10 years; very revealing too.

From 2010 to 2016 the SP rose like a bonfire night rocket
- and from 2016 to date fell like a damp squib.
Note what happens to the panic count afterthe SP failed in 2016:

2010 = Only 2 occasions that year of Oversold.
2011 = 1
2012 = 0
2013 = 0
2014 = 2
2015 = 1
2016 = 2
----------
2017 = 4
2018 = 3
2019 = 4 .....(so far)

There are similar overboughts but ignored those as they are pure shorting occasions. OverSolds you wait to declare then a couple of weeks to expire then go long. A profit opportunity all being well.

So as tonight's close, it looks ominous, so I had to check as was thinking surely not heading for another oversold so soon after the last?

Repeat: Not or anywhere near Oversold condition just yet, but bearish indicators firming up, so I'm gearing up to be ready if it does.

It's not oversold at all or close too. But it looks v bearish of late. Not good if it makes it 5 for 2019, the highest in 10 years.

Nearly got it on one post!

. . . Rinse and repeat the circular argument until market sentiment changes.

A lot of BT's fundamental metrics shine brightly. So do a lot of VOD's. But a recent side by side comparison show BT had more shine brightly's. That was before BT's interims came out. Will let VOD's interims surface next Tuesday then run the comparison again, with both companies latest updates put on a level playing field.

If this doesn't fit in one post @***!!!
---=---
Just having a look at the latest industry average P/E's for both BT and Vod.

And it's a fwd P/E of 11.5 for the Industry average (which is lower is than the FTSE market overall average).

- An stock with an above the average P/E is deemed to be going places with investors prepared to pay more now, for greater returns in the future.

- One that is below average is deemed to be in some sort of difficulty, or often designated 'cheap' but if the balance of metrics are mostly good as in BT's case, then it's often referred to, as a cheap, a 'deep value' contrarian stock pick for the future.

- However, below the average P/E combined with poor fundamental metrics to boot, and it's often seen as a cheap for a reason as a sort of busted flush, 'death star' and to be avoided.

BT
BT's fwd P/E ratio is 7.88 (LSE's on this site is historical not fwd looking) so is well below the industry average and also below the wider stock market average. So, well cheap. Imagine sentiment was neutral then the P/E might be average circa 11.5 which would entail the SP rising to circa 276p just to get the P/E inline with it's peers. When will sentiment fully turn in BT's favour is like asking how long is a piece of string? But should it do so, 276p is what could await it based today's P/E averages alone.

VOD
VOD has traditionally been held as having higher potential than BT and even in it's darkest falls in the SP - it nearly always stayed well ABOVE the industry average. The complete reverse of BT. Today its P/E is way, way, above the industry average and sports a fwd P/E of 19.2 !!! Almost near double the average. AND greater then the whole stock market average. So, expectations high for VOD, and then some.

Imagine if BT were so highly rated by the market and it too, held a P/E ratio as VOD with a P/E of 19.2 - What would the SP be then to reflect the same P/E ratio now, today? It could only do that if the SP increased 66.9% above the industry average thus bringing BT's price up further to circa 460p ! (But up to now, only VOD gets to wear big P/E ratios).

--------------------
BT's first job is to achieve parity with plain ol' average and come out of the dark cellar.
If it got to just average then at today's averages (which change over time) it has the potential to rise the SP to the 276p area (at today's prices).

But when? I can't say. All depends on how long the BOD take to sort out the market's concerns over BT. At the moment the SP is seriously under rated against the average, hugely so.
Is the market right - or is BT a bargain 'hidden in plain sight'?

It can take years to get that answer. Already I remember posting of this exercise at least 2 or 3 times over the past year or two and still no uprise in the P/E because the SP won't let it.
And the SP can't let the P/E rise - because the market won't let the SP rise.

Rinse and repeat the circular argument until market sentiment changes.

@ Newbie642 - Why thank you, kind sir,

I can tell instantly you have advanced observational skills of the highest order and most people on here would agree the same. You are quite accurate in your assements, and no would argue counter to that I feel sure.

PS.

Psst!

Psst! Psst!

Shussssh, a tenner on it's way to your Paypal account as agreed. Shussh.