Member Info for Velo

Right these are the bits I was seeking but took them from the newly, sneaked-in-at-the-last-minute-Q3-forecast.

A lot of data in my too-long posts on forecasts, so that's why I left this bit out. It's too help before you see any media reports saying 'BT came in at the lower end of market expectations', or the higher end, or failed to meet market expectations/came in above previous guidance etc., etc., and it's this:

They also publish the single lowest Q3 estimate (that'll be uber-bear DB then :)
and the highest Q3 forecast (probably uber-bull Jefferies?)

So sticking with Q3 average of averages of £457m (an average of the mean+median) you'll have to consider what they mean if the financial media reports deem the result is at the lower end of guidance.

The lowest forecast is for just £382m (yeah, just gotta be DB that!) and that would give a 9 month net profit of £1,450m.

So the question is, if the results show as little as £1,450m will that still be considered as within target guidance albeit towards the lower end?

Conversely they have the highest forecast showing as £525m so that would suggest £1,593m (just£7m short of £1600m :) and therefore would they say that's come in towards the higher end of guidance, and therefore no reward to BT?

That's all.

I'm thinking maybe they post the absolute highest and lowest for a reason. Averages is enough for me, but maybe they are the outlier markers to exceed in either direction on the day, before they say failed to achieve/ or exceeded expectations etc., ?

Whatever, despite the sneaky late change by the analysts, £1,500m+ net profit is still your minimum go-to number to measure against on Thursday (if I've done me sums right).

Just imagine if I posted all similar for revenue, costs etc., etc., I'D WANT A BLAADY FEE FIRST! :)

And Here Endth All Mention of Forecasts by me until Thursday.
There - What will be, will be.

Absolutely certain the last analysts update I double-checked on Friday (24th) was dated the 13th January which was a double posting of the previous Q3 update, itself published on 13th December.

Just checked not more than 5 minutes ago (as wanted to add some additional data in readiness for Thursday) - and they've sneaked in a last minute update for Q3 and posted it in the Q4 folder - and dated it 24th January!

Thought it was an administrative error as adding the mean and the median gave the exact same as previously, namely £457m for Q3 the exact same as Dec 13th.
- But gazing along to the full year and they've lowered their forecast for the full year!
Previously it was £2029.5m Net profit.

Now they've lowered the full current year down by £10m.

Full year is now given as £2010m for net profit, dangerously close to the £2b border. Sneaky.

I'll be back later with the additional data I was seeking (even though in a previous post somewhere I said no more on posts on forecasts :)

PS. Still roughly £1,500m+ as their 9 month target holds for Thursday, though.

Yes AW, add that to my resoltions list too.

Lamtree - geniunely LOL here. Good one! :)

( Concludes . . )

. . . And that's where technical Oversolds come in for me. I know I'm pretty accurate with Oversolds. Instead of calling out BT's Oversolds for fun and posting, I'm going to act on them, log them on here so I can't mislead myself and the results will be public like a kind of open diary - but just BT's Oversolds on here, not other stocks.

- And here we are the first Oversold of the year in BT. As I know the characteristics of BT I'm much happier evaluating opportunities when Oversold conditions expire in BT - as they mostly do behave the same on each occasion and I've checked all back on BT's for 20 years, time and time again.
- But they don't always behave the same on other stocks.

The other trading (not investing) technique that a mate commented on is Profit-warning hit stocks. He said he's noted they behave as I've highlighted, yet you haven't taken any action yourself, so why not just do those?

And he's right. That's it. My big portfolio investing strategy for this year is the CANSLIM investing method and will close my eyes as usually you're buying at all time highs, something we PI's are genetically biased against doing

- and for sheer trading fun - dipping into Oversolds (trading) and occasionally, Profit Warning hit shares (trading again) - both of which I have rules, the latter of which I have collected oodles and oodles of past data on, from academic researchers papers.

Oversolds, there is a technique so instead of just posting on them, I'm going to attempt profiting from them, first up of the year is BT.

From experience I know to never 'gamble' buying a stock just weeks or days before a trading update, so if the SP lifts out of oversold before Thursday I have to have iron discipline and refrain buying before Thursday if the technical Oversold signal should lift before then. But the Oversold in the SP lifting, is the decider. Can't move a muscle beforehand. Gut feelings are for others. No thinking and second guessing involved. I have rules on all 3 methods.

"Rules based" systems is my method on all, and forever.

What's yours? :)

(Did you) Or am I the only one, who at the end of 2019 took a long, hard, brutally HONEST look in the mirror at their own performance and reviewed their investing strategy/ies from top to bottom?

Sure I've had (several) double-bubblers and some have more than doubled. But I've also held on to some right stinkers; some of which are still sending an aromatic toxic pong of a shadow over my portfolios. Cashed in the double-bubblers only to see almost all of them continue north on their merry way. But the stinkers? Pfftt! You'd think upon seeing them that: 'This guy thinks those are keepers'. They're on my to-do list of taking the hits, yet it's nearly February already.

But in the meantime instead of trying to be a half decent investor I've decided on what's under my nose (Systems the world famous guru billionaires have made wealth from - and at least devote a substantial portion of my portfolios to those who have and still do have a winning system/strategy. Who here, for instance claims their own personal system is superior to Buffett's?

Trouble is, the one book I love reading most, is the one I find most difficult to emulate. But my unremarkable OVERALL performance commands me as a New Year resolution to try that methodology.
All 2019 I ran dummy portfolios on the CANSLIM system by Bill O'Neill (USA).

- The result is 35% up for the stocks I selected by the screen of stocks thrown up under that system. My own actual stock holdings performance for the year? Well knock off the first digit off the 35% gain in CANSLIM and you're roughly in the ball park of my 2019 annual performance area.
Nearly the end of January and I've dithered as I "wait" for the worst worldwide stock market crash since 1929 to commence (have a shorting plan for when it strikes). But, growing old and grey-er, waiting :)

Also I discovered someone (dodgy) in the US who's reeling in $70m a year in fees for signing up subscribers to his system so looked at his ads - and knock me over, he's using my fav TA indicators and chart patterns.

Where I think: "well from personal experience I know it only works 80% of the time"

- he takes the rough with the smooth - cuts losers v fast, and has made a packet with the winners. ie., Oversolds, breakouts, and pennant flags. That's it. But his big money-shot is Oversolds which he calls the Fish Hook as if he invented it LOL! The breakout he calls the Rocket. Why invent new names?

Only thing is, he appears to be 'front running' his system for those subscribers unwilling to choose their own stocks and instead pay him to choose them, so he's buying before recommending and selling before telling.

And that's where technical Oversolds come in for me. I know I'm pretty accurate with Oversolds. Instead of calling out BT's Oversolds for fun and posting, I'm going to act on them, log them on here so I can't mislead myself and the results will be public like a kind of open diary - but just BT's Oversolds on here, not other stocks.

Mention of cash below had me checking cash on hand at the end of last year's accounts for 2019 (stated 2018 in error below when I meant 2019 as last year)

- it stood a the highest ever, at least higher than the preceeding last 7 years I can see at a whopping, record breaking £4.880b !
That's more than the market valuation of some top FTSE100 companies!!!!
And it's lying in a drawer in the managers office inside a tin marked petty cash LOL!

Oooh there's cash aplenty in BT's petty cash tin to pay the windows cLeaner's et al :)

Ha! Hee! Yes, how does the full saying go? Something like:

Profit is vanity, cash is sanity?

In several of my posts I jump from reporting net profit in millions to billions even though analysts and BT themselves report in millions. That was deliberate on my part.

I wanted to sublimely remind without increasing post lengths that despite all the negatives BT is a giant cash making machine. £2b per year in net profit. Every year.

If a contest was offered that was free to enter where the prize was £1m in cash if you won but you had to cough up £1m in cash if you lost for an easy and simple test most would think the were goin to win easily.

All you had to do was speak out loud starting with £1 then say 2, then 3, then 4 and so on until - until you reached BT's annual net profit of just over £2 billion pounds.

I say it couldn't be done. BT's £2 billion net profit is too much for a human to even count it up £1 by £1 b
in one sitting without failing and stumbling once you got to the millions let alone the first billion.

Worth reminding oneself when highlighting all the negatives it's impossible to verbally count out loud without stopping for many, many rests, to state just one year's net profit.
A cash generating machine.

" Hey Velo, as I said couple of days ago, I’m expecting BT reporting to be better than the majority think. "

Yes, that's my opinion too, although it's notable that the serial under-estimaters that make up BT's official analysts have made their Q3 forecast the very lowest of all 3 forecasts this current financial year.!!!

As I joked in a post this is no time for those serial under-estimaters to become accurate - I hope :)

On that ADFN board someone has quoted a brokerage house forecasting that they believe Q3 will turn out to be uninspiring or words to thst effect. I've gone for the opposite a decent increase out if all the 3 quarters.

My nerves will be taught on Thursday morning as the series of posts by myself below have firmly nailed my opinions to he mast. No whinging no excuses. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. But check back all 2018 and I got Q1 and Q2 on the right side of £500m each.

So what can I say - With Q3, I'm going for the triple crown and a decent beating of the analysts forecasts. Pride before a fall and all that :)

"At the current s/p, market cap is under 20 bil."

You're totally overlooking the Enterprise Value which would more than double that £20b. Enterprise Value is essential if a takeover bid was launched otherwise just offerring BT the current market value would mean the BOD declaring themselves bankrupt as debts of £19 b would still have to be paid back to the bank. A prickly thorn is valuing BT. In t' olden days companies would pile up their debt to ward off stalking asset strippers such as Slater and Goldsmith from eyeing them up ie., (the 1970's)

AW00? It was AW100 when I clicked 'post message'!

AW00 - Had a look at ADFN and really they gave nothing on why the SP is only worth a £1. What I mean is, they gave nothing more than posters on here have been ruminating about. No indisputable factsfigures to support their evaluation only their personal opinions. Nothing wrong on that - it's what forum boards are for - reading others opinions. So £1 is just another opinion. There are no figures there that anyone can go away and compute to check out - just opinions. Tht's not say £1 is wrong just that you're asked to accept £1 blindly, based on someone's opinion. A total lack of figures to back up every assertion. So I listen to £1 then I look at what someone else thinks. Altogether they're just views and opinions -just like the media experts who each gave a different SP opinion.

Logging off for tonight but a wee point in case my posts have come over a bit too bullish as if the world is 100% wrong and the real truth is hidden away if only you know where to look; as some might think, that if my posts turn out to be correct then when "the truth" gets revealed - the market will reward - and the SP should fly.
It hasn't so far, so why should it on Thursday? Bearish market sentiment? Potentially, also here's maybe why not.

List up all the things you've ever read that's put BT in the dog house, and are still some way from being sorted 100%.

Under performing revenue for starters.
Oh by the way, revenue next Thursday? I can analyse that in a single sentence:

It'll be down on last year's comparative period as will be the full year's forecast for revenue - down on previous years.

And some more to start you off . . .

Despite increasing net profits year after year, the all important EPS (Earnings per share) is down year after year.

Debt - this year is the worst ever for a staggering increase.

Pension deficit. Will be well sorted - in a decade's time, that is!

The company is "owned" as a political football. Treated as a monopoly it is hamstrung by regulations to prevent it under cutting rivals because it's seen as operating as a monopoly. It's competitive, but not allowed to be too competitive, hence maybe a further reason resulting in higher net profits, year after year.

It's tasked with building the country's entire fast broadband to every nook and cranny, but under regulations it won't be able to charge what it sees fit - the regulators will tell it what it can charge. Ergo it is "owned".

Go to a meeting stand up with my posts printed off, and read them out on how net profit is all set to keep on increasing - FACT! - and well into the future - as they all well know - and they'll say, "SO WHAT?" And start listing all the downers above and more, as the reason for keeping the SP as their prisoner.

But let's see if anything changes on Thursday. I'm quietly confident. Well perhaps the word quiet is not appropriate to apply to my posts - but you get my drift :)

PS.
I can list you up a load of positive fundamental metrics (loads!) where BT is beating the industry averages by a considerable margin. Quite a few indeed. (Seriously).
But in the long, long past, in the wrong conditions, deep value, cheap, undervalued, bargain stocks, can lie unappreciated for 20 years in the 'wrong' market conditions before being rewarded.
------------------

Will speak about the current oversold condition in the SP next week and how it will soon end. And I mean real soon. It always does. Maybe this Thursday?
- or leading up to Thursday, or maybe a week or two later, but soon.
I'm prepared to take bets on it. It's current down trend in the SP does not signify the end of the world :)

As I said previously, in posts below, here are the future jam-tomorrow future years forecasts of BT's net profit as published by the analysts on 13th December last month.

NOT MY FIGURES - THEIRS! And the world has the downers on BT, right?

Well get a load of what these shy, retiring, under-estimators have pencilled in for the coming years. Maybe they're covert, garage-house, acid-house, drug fuelled, party-goers!

I bet these forecasts for the full year net profits aren't what you've been led to expect by what you've read in the media, that's for sure!

As I've shown, those guys are serial under esitimaters - both Q1 and Q2 were under estimated and I hope next Thursday too. So bear that in mind, they-always-under-estimate. Always.

As a marker, here are the last couple of year's net profit to set the scene - increase after increase -

2017 = £1,908m net profit
2018 = £2,032m net profit
2019 = £2,059m net profit (last year)

This current year now, their forecast is for
2020 = £2,029.5m net profit forecast
(I'm looking for well over another £100m++ and thus the increases continue unabated)

Next year -
2021 = £2,154m net profit forecast

The year after that -
2022 = £2254.5m net profit forecast.

Up, up, and away. Not what you'd expect from the analysts is it? Remember their figures - not mine.

That's me more or less done now until next Thursday morning, apart from a couple of odd, non-specific posts that don't include forecasts or analysts.

Spot on Steve.
We'd all do it if that was our job. You never dissapoint then, you always please on the day. But the downside is, the SP gets trammelled a bit until the full year comes in. Just need next Thursday to prove the same and it's baked-in.
Their Q3 forecast is the lowest of the year. Gulp. This is no time for those analysts to start getting it right!!!!

So, hoping they perform to past form for Q3, as their past record suggests they will.

Please shout out if my too-long post doesn't make sense as I'm going to post what the analysts have published for next year and the year after. When you see them, you'll think they'ver gone lottery crazy. After which - that's it on analysts forecasts. (Promise).

PS. This bit:
"They're over awed by the interim forecasts - which are ****e - as I've shown."

Should have come out sort of like this:

"They're over awed by the interim forecasts - which are Sh- .ite. - as I've shown."

Part 2 Concludes:
. . .
Q1 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £484.5m - But BT published achieving £505m
Q2 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £486.0m - But BT published achieving £563m
Q3 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £457.0m ? = Next Thursday

So for their Q2 forecast, the true Q1 £505m became their property as if they had forecast that all along, therefore their second Q2 forecast added to actual Q1, meant they were really looking for £991m. Still under estimated but not too bad as BT for H1 produced £1,068m.

So the analysts underestimated yet again, by a larger margin. Q3 forecast added to H1 actual means they are really looking for £1,525m next Thursday as a running total. Which means they only need to forecast circa no more than £500m max if that, to appear as if their forecasts have been correct all along in forecasting £2b. Do you dig? Shout out if I haven't written clearly.

It's been possible because they moved their 12 month forecast without making a song and dance about it.

In the old Q1 still available on BT's site they forecast the full year net profit of £1.988m - I disputed that on sight it's recorded deep into last year's posts of mine.
But the market swallowed it wholesale and the lacklustre SP performance continues. Who wants to buy a stock where even the analysts say the last jewel in the crown (net profit) will start failing and produce less than last year? - a first!
- the worst since this debacle commenced in 2016.

Then take a look at the full year forecast on 27th Sept 2019 - they quietly upped it to £2,009m - £2b ! Bingo! Still less than last year; but now we're cooking on gas! I've got the time of day for them now :)

So what's the latest in Q3 that they have for the full year? - £2,029.5m
- £2b+ At last fellas' but you're still well short.

I need to see an INCREASE over last year because that's what I firmly believe, you're getting there, so what have you forecast for future years?

- well I'll put the jam tomorrow net profits in a separate post - you'll like them.

I just don't get why the wider stock market isn't getting these horses mouth full year forecasts of the analysts of £2b+ net profit.

They're over awed by the interim forecasts - which are ****e - as I've shown.

Took some doing but they got there. Still short of the truth but they know if they underestimate on a nice increase by a smallish amount then they're still heroes. Promise more and BT doesn't deliver and the analyst brokers houses could lose clients.

Anyway they're looking for a £1,500m+ net profit on Thursday (£1.5b+) They'll get it! :)
Then will the market take notice? Who knows? Sentiment after 4 years has solidified. Talk up BT - anywhere and folks will have your guts for garters.

PS. £1.5b+ ? Poohee - Well if it pleases - but I'm looking for £1.6b+ :)

(Part 1 of 2)

Try and stick with this post to the end as it answers my doubts and accusations and it should yours too. Here goes:

This concludes my thoughts on the in-house brokers analysts forecasts for BT to the header-link that this refers to. Or just read on from the opening para of today's mid day post -

" Ha! Finally, finally, (LOL!) FINALLY I get it.
Floated into my subconscious early this morning whilst still in bed. Yes there is bias in the analysts forecasts - but not the corruption/fraud bias I was intimating of. But the kind of bias that is legal and self serving that we all employ to protect ourselves from error. . . "

Here's what's been building up my indignation and the target of my ire for affecting the SP

Q1 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £484.5m
Q2 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £486.0m
Q3 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £457.0m

BT produced actuals of £1,068m for Q1 & Q2 (H1) - so the analysts Q2 forecast in particular, was woefully underestimated and if you look at the recent decline in the SP, they shunted down nicely in tune with the bearish quarterly forecasts [Q3 was released to the public in error for a second time on Jan 13th].
(Check what happened to the SP on that day; and the acceleration downwards since). Clearly it looks like the analysts are expecting a poor Q3 update - but are they?

Question: Why has the analysts full year forecast increased significantly since Q1 then from £1.9Bn to £2.029Bn?
Answer: Because they still expect a £2b+ net profit but a slight retracement for the third quarter whilst getting there.

I was perturbed by adding up all 3 Quarter forecasts which come to £1427.5m
So imagine if they come out with a Q4 of only similar, say £489.5m?
That would give a full year of a disastrous forecasts of £1917m - right back to their original god-awful 12 month forecast area in Q1. (But it doesn't work like that of course).

Is that why the market in BT started to slide noticeably? If so, it's mistaken thinking because the answer the analysts have built in to the system is to base their next forecast not on their previous forecasts but shift gear and forecast the next quarter based on the truth, the reality that BT produced each quarter - and hey presto they can increase the full year forecast (to what I was expecting all along) and still come up with a £2b net profit figure if that's what BT do come up with by the financial year's end.

So the answer to my question in the previous post is THEY MOVE THE GOALPOSTS and up or down their next quarterly forecast to stay in the orbit of what they believe will be the 12 month actual result whilst being way out all the time LOL! See this:

Q1 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £484.5m - But BT published achieving £505m
Q2 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £486.0m - But BT published achieving £563m
Q3 Analysts forecast for Net Profit = £457.0m ? = Next Thursday

(CONTINUES > > >)

Ha! Finally (LOL!) FINALLY I get it.

Floated into my subconscious early this morning whilst still in bed. Yes there is bias in the analysts forecasts - but not the corruption/fraud bias I was intimating of. But the kind of bias that is legal and self serving that we all employ to protect ourselves from error.

Will post what that is later but will gather analysts previous early forecasts from Q1 onwards to illustrate how they can under estimate what BT will actually achieve and still leave themselves room to appear correct. And you can only ONLY discern this if you have ALL the utterances of all registered brokerage house analysts for BT. An impossible task - normally. But investors in BT have a tremendous gift handed to then by BT - on their website, where to my knowledge, BT is the first company in the world to set aside web pages to the entire recorded utterances of all registered house analysts for BT.

So the reveal on the analysts later. If interested, have a think and maybe guess at the simple answer to the conundrum that eluded me until this morning, on why the analysts forecasts can never be 'wrong' - mathematically. It's easy when you think about it. Clue: "goalposts/moving + the 9 month £1,500m forecast". If you are ace at complex puzzles you won't get the answer - because the answer is far too simple, but it helps enormously if you have access to the analysts previous forecasts courtesy of BT's website. (Back later on this subject).
==================
Postscript:

So, why are analysts forecasts important anyway?

Is it because of the SP forecasts they publish?

- Clearly not. Just look at the links above and try and find just 2 of them that agree - they're all over the place. So no, they're rubbish at guessing future SP's though occasionally by luck they will ring the bell once in a blue moon.

Is it because of the Revenues and profits forecast by them?

For accuracy then not really, although short term they can damage the SP of a stock until the full 12 months results are announced by the company.

So, why are they important?

This - f you haven't the time to ruminate and digest every forecast as they come out all year, there's only one thing you should concern yourself regarding analysts forecasts, and it's THE most important one - this > >

**Is the overall consensus on the whole, increasing over time, or decreasing?**

That ** 'advice' ** sentence is not from my personal experience but from the billionaire guru books by those who have already made it.

That's it! Are the forecasts going up, or down?
Presumably it's this year's quarter v last year's quarter as a retailer might have steadily increasing quarters as they run up to Christmas each year. Personally I prefer the company's own quarters comparisons and have never compared analysts qtly forecasts

This year with the 3 quarters of forecasts in for BT - are a mess, so nothing there.
- Back later