Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
Gaza, I don't see why through any restructuring we would lose anything. We would own the top entity which becomes a holding company and then this holding company owns the 3 separate subsidiaries. In my analogy the PGM subsidiary would be sold off while Nickel and Hydrogen remain but we could be diluted to less than 100% shareholdings as partners come in and take some of the equity
All speculation, but this is the general playbook
It should be clear why EUA is being split down into 3 entities. This is to allow for different financing / JV arrangements for each resource
PGM - MT, NKT etc to be sold off - The liquidity event. Just a gut feeling, but I believe it is not NN. Chinese, such Jinchuan is what I am thinking of.
Nickel - Strategic partnership with nickel hungry EV producer or similar. I see this space for Japan connection
WK - into Hydrogen JV to have vertical integration across the Hydrogen production chain
With involvement of UBS/DLA there must be very significant things behind the scenes. These guys don't play around for pennies
Definitely the mining majors will be looking to purchase HZM as it is a rare high grade and tier 1 nickel pure play. BHP, Rio Tinto, Teck, Glencore but also Vale who knows these resources and the Brazilian legal environment better than all of them. They all have large market cap so can so an all share offer as well as cash if they want to.
More so I see sale of part of Vermelho which is a resource primed for the EV market and has cobalt as well. HZM then retain Araguaia and a large share in Vermelho, while this gets fast tracked and financed by the mining majors.
I believe what we are seeing now is the quite before the storm. This will be bigger than the Tesla deal
Most commentators saying tensions are going to further increase commodity prices
There has been a strong market sell off in the last days, fuelled by inflation and acceptance that higher interest rate environment is coming.
Toe sectors do very well in inflationary / high interest rates environments - financials and commodities. My expectation is that Investor money is going to recirculate out of tech darlings / crypto and into these two sectors. With EUA one does not only get commodities but future green focused commodities, PGM and Nickel which are likely to be in high demand most of this decade.
As for Russia/Ukraine risk, we should just forget this. There is not going to be any huge war. Russian commodities businesses are doing well - NN, Eurochem, Polyus the Oil companies etc. An EUA Moscow listing is going to be very beneficial longer term and will result in its assets being priced properly and not with the Wests "Russia discount".
Free broker notes - I don't give much attention to them.
Within the heavy industry circles I work it has been mentioned for some time now that with Covid also came a 10 year boom for commodities. Add to this the supply-demand imbalance on Nickel and years of low investment, I can see a huge rerate for Nickel mining industry
Producing commodities priced in hard currency with a soft currency, depreciating fx rate country is a huge plus
The business I work for has a large production site in Turkey and I guess we all know what has happened with the Turkish Lira exchange rate over the last 2 years. The production plant has now a huge cost advantage compared to hard currency cost competitors and is also enjoying a windfall on Euro pricing for its products
Yes the construction costs will have incresed although allot of that would have already been priced in at the time of the funding deal and share issue at 7p. Inflation can be an in demand commodities best friend and I believe this is the case for nickel
@LawrenceH, fully agree with your assessment. The potential here is mouthwatering. On Araguaia alone we could go 5x current sp. I expect that Araguaia phase 1 and phase 2 will end up being done simultaneously.
Then we come to Vermelho. I expect a deal will be done on this to get it kick started. the likes of Vale, Glencore and even BHP could well be very interested to buy a stake in the project (or pro rate fund) and / or pre-fund through offtake
@Munchbox54 - 100% from here depends on your time horizon. I can see 5x - 10x rerate, over the longer term. Many variables but where things fall in place that is where MKA can get to
BHP/Glencore merger would be huge
Considering its size, BHP is rather light on the "Green and EV metals" like Copper, Nickel and Cobalt. Glencore is strong in this area and in addition has a huge commodities trading business which can benefit big time from more focus on metals.
This is definitely an indication of how valuable EUA assets are for the energy transition and the market has not event started to reflect this in the sp. Let's keep in contect however, $160 billion are metals in the ground over a given region. Allot of that value gets lost on costs of mining, extracting, financing and so on. We dont have numbers yet but possibly we are somewhere between $10 - $15 billion in total NPV. How much of that value the market will price into EUA is anyones guess. If I take 30% then we get lower end market value $3 billion and higher end $4.5 billion. Allot if assumptions, if's and but's in this but a broad indication of what we have here
Only one thing we can do - accumulate, accumulate, accumulate every time price is marked down
This is a gem in a not so crowded space, with strategically important mineral resources. The undeveloped rutile they have is probably worth a multiple of current market cap. We don't even start to talk about RE
No concern at all. This is all politics and propaganda related to eastward expansion of Nato. I don't see that Russia will mount a large scale offensive against Ukraine as they got back what they wanted, which was Crimea. Yes we have troop movements but that is a tit for tat chess game between US / their NATA puppets and Russia
Yes the west can cut off Russia from Swift and Russia then cuts off gas supply to Europe. Stalemate and will not happen
I did not and still do not give any attention to what the Motley fool says about EUA
First, we live in a capitalist world were it is all about money. In such world I do not trust anything that is a "free" advice or recommendation.
Second the Motley Fool generally does not like mining companies owing to the cyclical nature. Fair enough but I like taking a bit more risk and owing to my upbringing in South Africa, I do like mining as an industry
Finally. Motely Fool have also got there fair share of disaster recommendations. What they say is for sure not gopel
In conclusion, yes I have been a subscriber to the various paid services (Investors Chronicle as well) but I really use theur articles, tips, recommendations as the starting point for my research.
Russia invade Ukraine! ha ha ha, will not happen.
Russia has taken back back what it wanted in Ukraine (Crimea) which was always Russian heartland and handed to Ukraine administration during soviet times. Putin does not want to inherit the economic and political mess in Ukraine.
The rest is all propaganda games both sides play.
https://www.baystreet.ca/commodities/5223/Goldman-Sachs-Calls-10-Year-Commodity-Supercycle
EUA has Nickel, Cobalt and Copper - all mentioned in this commodities super cycle news release
https://www.sbma.org.sg/media-centre/publication/crucible-issue-20/platinums-crucial-role-in-global-decarbonisation-is-driving-near-term-platinum-investment-demand/
Hydrogen and Platinum go hand in hand when it coms to global decarbonisation needs. EUA is there in both areas
@fulmar29
My view is that HZM should do a strategic deal on "V" here and now. Nickel is burning brightly at the moment and the large miners and EV car manufacturers are falling over themselves to secure supplies.
This can be a 50% disposal of the resource with the buyer also having to arrange the full debt financing package. Alternatively something similar to the Tesla deal. HZM is just too small to go it alone on a large deposit such as "V" and if it does it will result in significant shareholder diluion
If I take a bet, they sell 25% of "V" and do a tesla style offtake for the funding. let's see
Gives some insight why EUA are moving strongly to establish a Nickel business. Tesla is just the start, the fireworks will start once the traditional German and Japanese car makers ramp up on EV vehicle manufacture.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/970926/nickel-and-zinc-have-joined-the-critical-minerals-list-here-s-why-they-re-important-970926.html
In Russian it would be Kola Nickel OOO. In English "OOO" is "LLC".
@Bacefook
aaahhh!! 1 hour with Neo, I don't want to win this. My prediction £1,000,000 per share!