China cost escalation1 Mar 2026 13:15
We look at the demand side and there is allot out there on technology, renewable energy, military application upgrades driving up consumption and then prices for REE
The big investment thesis may however not be demand but supply. China built its dominance on rare earths by accepting huge environmental destruction at sites where rare earths and produced and processed. China is changing and so is the thinking around acceptance of environmental destruction, which is driving up rare earth and magnet production cots, 30% already according to some discussions from last year. This is unlikely to reverse so the minimum price level is only further likely to rise at a time where it will take a decade for a limited number of new deposits to be developed. Rare Earths are not rear but they are under the radar, major mining groups not really interested in the space and bringing a new deposit to market will take minimum a decade.
My conclusion from all of this., very likely HPMS recycled magnets become the cost leader even compared to China while key rare earth prices enter i new long term range above the minimum price guarantees given to the likes of MP Materials
On the MKAR side we can be sure Malawi mining and distribution costs to market will remain long term much lower than in places such as US, Canada, Australia, Europe. The dream of mining rare earths from the seabed will stay a dream. New major rare earth mining I would possibly see from places such as Brazil, Indonesia, India but it will all take a long time
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