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Thanks' again LT.

So with over 100 million smart meter contracts already sanctioned ( i read 200m somewhere) , and possibly increasing and only approx. 6 million installed on the ground , then at some point over next six months, and onwards the difference of approx. 95 m smart meters and increasing should be awarded to the primary contractors, and then at some stage their sub contractors.....and no one can really say when the next contract, or several will be awarded.

Sounds a bit like playing bingo and holding 20% plus of the cards!

This gives the process a year before the next Indian election which i think is May and June 24, with the present day view that Modi and the BJP government will be re-elected, albeit perhaps with a reduced majority.

Thanks LT for the links.

As you have already mentioned

"The sunset date for the scheme will be 31.03.2026, the works executed beyond

which will not be eligible for release of Central Government grant................."As the sunset date of the scheme is already defined and disbursement of grant is based on progress and corresponding achievement of targets, it is in the interest

of the DISCOMs to complete the projects expeditiously to avail the benefits under the Scheme"

So the quicker these contracts are awarded, the quicker the discom can begin evidencing their achievements towards the targets, so to release further government funding and the more likely they will be able to achieve their rollout before the sunset date, because if they over shoot the 31st March 26 then they will no longer be eligible for further government grant.

The above cut off date of 31st March 26 is only approx 33 months away, just over two and a half years.

If each award come with a 24 /27 month contracted roll out period as the recent IntelliSmart Cyan award, which starts next quarter for up to 27 months then, then things are looking a bit tight, as the rump of awards have not even been announced yet. The awards have to come first, to give the discoms a chance of meeting this deadline.

Who is the gatekeeper of sanctioning and awarding contracts ?, the Indian government.

Either there must be numerous very large awards very soon, or another revamping of this document.

What are the other likely alternatives ...?

Cheers Vas

Cabinet Approves Revamped Power Distribution Sector Scheme: A Reforms based and Results linked Scheme

By Sangita Shetty -2nd June 2023

I thought this had already been approved ! Is this the green light for further positive news going forward ?

https://solarquarter.com/2023/06/02/cabinet-approves-revamped-power-distribution-sector-scheme-a-reforms-based-and-results-linked-scheme/

Taken from recent RNS Re: 600,000 Omnimesh Modules

"This order signifies a significant milestone, as it will bring the total number of Omnimesh Modules deployed in India to 4.2 million, with over 1.3 million of those modules already deployed and operational. We look forward to the implementation of this important project and delivering upon our commitment."

So 1.3 million modules already deployed, and approx. 3 million to be deployed, most probably over next 24/27 months .

If we take the figures from the Zeus report that Homebreruss and LT posted earlier then Assuming £12.5 revenue per meter gives Cyan over £37 m in gross revenue shortly to be in progress, plus 1.3 modules already deployed and on maintenance contract .

approx. £22m recognised during deployment ( 60% of contract) and then remainder £15 m during maintenance, x 7 years = approx £2 m a year.

approx £11m a year coming to Cyan over next two years plus maintenance contracts of the deployed modules.

Just a very rough stab at numbers from me.

Shoot me down :)

Thanks Gizmo .

Here is the link with out access.

https://www.vccircle.com/exclusiveifc-weighs-500-mn-financing-for-india-s-smart-meter-programme

Thanks All for your replies.

I get the general idea, but a lot of the confusion i have is semantic. awarding / ordering etc

Such as the difference between the gov India use of awarded, and JCs use of 250 m will be ordered. I am guessing they probably mean the same thing.

The bottom line is, I think is that India need to give the meter manufacturers the green light to expand production...i read Genus stated that by end of 2023, they aim to be at full capacity in meter manufacturing which i think was 10 m units Pa, and expanding.

Cheers

Vas.

Well Tony,

Surely someone can put some numbers together to represent a conservative 5 m on average units award rate for each of the the next five years ...and you can double it! :)

I think I understand the timescales in much more detail now.

Just read "Smart meters to revolutionise India’s energy system March 4, 2023" A interview with Ratna Garapati, Managing Director & CEO of CyanConnode India."

A much more realistic expectation for a full roll out, with a full " bid out" by 2025.

Of course, those sanctioned this year, and awarded this year will have ( 27 months) approx. just over two years to complete..so even todays awarded tenders probably not complete until end of 2025, with all the remaining 250 million meters to follow, over the next few months and years to approx. 2025/6.

"Overcoming Hurdles and Moving towards Large-scale Implementation

The Government intends to achieve the goal of 250 million smart meter connected homes by 2025. We are confident that almost the entire 250 million will be bid out by 2025 and a majority of these would be implemented by 2027-28 as the implementation phase as per the Standard Bidding Document under Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) is 27 months. We are ready and geared up to support the AMISPs, Meter OEMs and utilities for all the communications related requirements for this large-scale implementation."

"almost the entire 250 million will be bid out by 2025 and a majority of these would be implemented by 2027-28 "

Therefore, Cyan believe that between now, and 2025 all 250 m will be sanctioned and awarded, and between today and 2028 the majority will be implemented, and live. The contracts continue with a maintenance award.

Can I ask a rather basic question ( sorry, its been a while and i am out of step here)

What up front payments can Cyan expect on initial award from contractor, and again on the delivery to contractor, and again after implemented on the ground, when the contract goes forward for the remaining 7 years or whatever.

Putting maintenance contract payments aside, If Cyan just got 10% of the 250 m, over the next five years which I know is seen as very conservative, but on average would be 5 m units awarded to Cyan each year, for five years....what sorts of revenue to Cyan could Investors expected.? A ball park, but realistic figure would be good, as I know that unit prices will be determined by quantity etc

Sorry for such basic questions, but I think many new investors such as I , would like to see what a conservative, yearly revenue opportunity over the next few years looks like..... Just India.

If India manages to award the 250 m units by 2025, and Cyan have even a conservative 10% involvement - what will the SP look like. Anyone?

I think you are correct LT.

I can find many examples of the term "100 m meters to be installed by Y/E 23 etc" dating back to last year , but i am struggling to find similar confirmation of 100 m meters to be installed" in more recent articles and reports.

The terminology has changed, as you have demonstrated and in recent reports the year end 23, 100 m target, does not seem to appear, where as so far the 250 m 25/26 targets are still referred too. ..so far, from independent sources i have only found Thales Group who recently predicted in 2023 " there will be 50 million smart meter tenders".

I would be interested to hear if anyone else can find independent, third party predictions ( last few months) for the Indian rollout for rest of 2023 and beyond.

Thanks and GL Vas

Can someone clarify for me, regardless of the likelihood of any targets being reached, or not. What is the original Indian government target for smart meter rollout year end 2023. Is it 100 mil. meters sanctioned, or 100m actually awarded, or 100 m actually installed.

Genus stated in late 2022 it was 100 mil actually installed !

Even if the target is 100m awarded by 23 year end, then that's well over 90 million meters that need to be awarded in the next six months, which is around 90 x 1 million award contracts or possibly several hundred smaller contracts awards.

There must be some pressure now to at least award the tenders, as its only then the actual journey begins, and even then their are several mores steps of award to sub contractors etc, and materials and start dates to be planned... only then it becomes a reality.

Things will need to pick up a pace sooner rather than later, surely.

Hi Tony. If the meter manufacturers like Genus are limited to just 10 m meters per year...out of a 250m opportunity in India alone , surely the likes of IntelliSmart, if they

believe CC is an integral part of their future success in india are most likely to take a significant investment in CC to protect future oppurtunity.

Contracts won outside of intellSmart, won independently by our other partners would be a bonus.

I read somewhere that intellismart aim to compete in every SM tender in India !....they have already awarded CC approx one million units and its still early days . They could be in for a very large chunk of the 250m, and it's possible CC could get unknown percentage of these.....way ahead of any of the numbers that individual manufacturers can muster, I guess. Just a thought.

This recent report talks about a mid-year decision point in September on H2 23-24 CDC revenue funding.

"Performance against this plan and subsequent returns will be taken into consideration during the mid-year decision point in September on H2 23-24 CDC revenue funding. Plans should be developed with Cancer Alliance and diagnostics teams (including CDC) involvement and cover"

https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/prioritising-new-diagnostic-capacity-for-cancer-services/

Evening ndr,

Here is NHS England's latest report on how the £14 billion allocated between 2022/23 and 2024/25 to improve elective and cancer care is progressing.

The thing that continuously jumps out at me when i read these reports is when they report of the success of the IDCs,

they are mostly just referring to the basic building and traditional care pathways ( mostly).

What about all the clever digital stuff that is suppose to be going on inside these new services to add to the numbers of patients seen, and further reduce the backlogs ... this does not really get mentioned .

So Jo public, everything looks like its progressing as it should ...but there is obviously a delay of some kind in the investment in the new cutting edge digital services, within the CDCs.

Belittling the outcomes from the Kings Fund report is a shame as they where behind the digitalisation of pathways, and front line services.

Re, comments on CDCs it stated

"In January 2023, the number of tests reported in the monthly diagnostics waiting times and activity return, which accounts for over 95% of all tests delivered, was the highest on record and stood at 105% of the pre-pandemic level.

• CDCs delivered 4.1% of the total diagnostic activity reported in December 22.

So the government are claiming that CDCs are success already, even though as we know there is much more to be done.

Maybe this is telling, maybe not

"Diagnostic Transformation (£2.3bn): £1.477bn of this funding supports the set-up of

Community Diagnostic Centres, with the remainder funding digital diagnostics, and

additional capacity for endoscopy, imaging, and screening services."

Maybe we are at the CDCs set up stage, as this is the priority, and the monies ( what remains) for the digital diagnostics etc will be held released once the 160 CDCs target is met.

Tom needs to make a update, as its only natural people may read the signs wrong ( like me), and possibly come to the wrong conclusion.

https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/40093/documents/195606/default/

Takeover talk has been a regular theme over past decade or so, and never really had any real weight / or evidence of WHY, behind it. Today, the landscape and opportunity's, and CC s progress along with actual proof, proven in India of a viable SM solution must make this a possibility.

You could ask the question ....which company would not want fast track access to a possible 20% plus slice, of a 250 million electricity smart meter rollout in India alone.

I just cant make my mind up whether it would be a competitor, or a partner, such as IntelliSmart or Genus.

The more actual contracts that CC win, will only add more value to CC, and the proposition going forward as with each decent contact win, de-risks the probability of failure, and also adds useful guaranteed revenue going forward for the company.

So maybe that's the new tipping point.:) ,to use an old favourite.

HI ITT.

I am no expert -so please take this into account ...

But If its so evident that 1 m shares are being sold , for example today, then surely there must be some evidence / trace of who is buying them off the seller! Where are all these sold shares going....I can see no evidence of continuous buying at present.

Could this be what i have read is called a "off book" transaction where a seller and a buyer agree on a transfer of shares at a given price... if so, there should also be evidence somewhere of the purchasing of the shares. ..

I hope this makes sense.

This on top of earlier awards made in Feb this year.

"HPL Electric & Power (HPL) has won smart meter orders worth INR204 crore ($24m) from customers across India."

https://www.iotm2mcouncil.org/iot-library/news/smart-energy-news/hpl-lands-24m-smart-meter-orders/

"CyanConnode Holdings plc (AIM: CYAN), a global leader in Narrowband Radio Frequency (RF) Smart Mesh Networks, is pleased to announce the receipt of an order from Paschimanchal Infrastructure Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of IntelliSmart Infrastructure Private Ltd, for 600,000 Omnimesh Modules. "

What I find interesting is that this is the first ever order that Paschimanchal Infrastructure have handed out!

It is IntelliSmarts newly created subsidiary and has Anil Rawal ( director of Intellismart) as one of its four directors...all four directors it seems are also directors of Assam Smart Metering Private ltd...an earlier contract, the first between IntelliSmart and Cyan .

It seems that Assam SM PVY was incorporated around 1st May 2023 and Paschimanchal Infrastructure Pvt Ltd, around 17th April 23. These are obviously new vehicles to exploit the opportunities in both Assam, and Utter Pradesh, India.

Makes you wonder will their be others?

Interesting, is it coincidence that both have been recently created, and have chosen Cyan's technology at this early stage.

Are we expecting some news from Assam, sometime soon? IntelliSmart, via Assam dipped their toes with 100,000 Omnimesh Modules about a year ago....

https://www.falconebiz.com/company/PASCHIMANCHAL-INFRASTRUCTURE-PRIVATE-LIMITED-U46593HR2023PTC110772

Excellent progress. If India is serious of reaching 250 million new smart meter target in next few years then these awards will have to be much bigger .

To put it another way this award is just over half a percent of the 100m meters target for year end 23...six months away give or take a week!

Nice thought Tony

try here

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/genus-power-infrastructures-ltd/stocksupdate/companyid-7916.cms

Morning LT and All.

Genus have published this Investor Presentation today.

https://archives.nseindia.com/corporate/GENUSPOWER_24052023123749_IP_stx_signed.pdf