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Hi LT,
Yes, and in retrospect probably not the most realistic calculation i must admit. How can Genus claim a 70% market share in Smart meters, at this stage . We know that Genus are bidding to win smart meter awards for themselves, and are also aiming to become secure, reliable and instantly accessible suppliers of smart meters to other AIMS for Smart Meters rollout - as form what it seems they have very well protected supply routes, most probably owned by themselves.
I think the last point has not really been explored properly as many other competitor's whom are less mature, will have to take it much less slowly, insuring supply routes for components, in massive volumes, set up and production and importantly testing of millions of smart meters , and so many may choose to come to Genus to manufacture a " ready to go to market smart meter ", with short manufacture time and off the shelf so to speak .
I do not know much about other company's Cyan are partnering with but Genus seem to have positioned themselves into an a position where they are a manufacturing hub, for top quality smart meters for India PLC. Cheers GL Vas
Thanks Tony. Just trying to make sense of all this.
Below is a presentation given by IntelliSmart in May 23, i think. The link to it was broken which in itself sometimes means its been taken down for some reason, however still accessible using cache.
Its quite a good summary of where IntelliSmart is now, and where they aim to be going in future - so worth a quick scan.
Its all worth a look but Page 9 lists intelliSmarts Digital Initiatives going forward which most, if not all are bang on what CC do, or we have been told they may be involved in - thus CC might also be engaged in the future. with IntelliSmart.
hope link works . GL Vas
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:h_pWttB2IH4J:https://www.intellismartinfra.in/uploads/2023/May/22/1684760552_IntelliSmart%2520Corporate%2520Presentation%2520(18-05-2023).pdf&hl=en&gl=uk
27% market share in Meter Industry
70% market share in Smart Meters
Share of Metering Projects increasing...
Makes me wonder are they the ones making all the meters smart!
That's 175 million smart meters currently from the 250m being awarded....and they want to grow this!!
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/Attachhis/80222211-5e86-4f56-abfa-5e0643691b5b.pdf
Just thought i would post this as interesting connection , between CC and Possibly Genus.
Genus Power wins Innovative Initiative in the Power Sector, 2020 award for its Smart Metering Pilot project in UAE'.
A year or so earlier In late 2018 CyanConnode signs deals in UAE and Bahrain with DS Technology.
"DS Technology would distribute CyanConnode's RF mesh networks, which were described as “self-forming” and “self-healing”, as well as its ‘Omnimesh’ platform that could manage multiple communication systems"
Obviously, nothing came form this, yet but its possible CC could have been involved in this Genus pilot, which may pay rewards later- or may not depending on how life goes.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/cyanconnode-signs-deals-in-uae-and-bahrain--3609661.html
Genus often state when talking about their smart meter and other manufacturing services abilities to have ..."State of the art manufacturing facilities with complete forward & backward integration" along with " Truly “ Made in India” Products (Designed, Developed and produced in India)".
My understanding of backward integration is that Genus would buy every company that it sourced its materials for to produce something, and bring it all in house and owned by Genus. And likewise with forward integration they would buy out any company that produced parts that where required or added to their products after they had manufactured their product so owning the entire product supply chain .
Anyone have a view on where CC stand with this ..because at present from what I can see we are Independent Indian suppliers to Genus, and others !
Quote
"We have been following the ideology of using Indian technology, products and resources to produce systems that are truly ‘Made in India’; long before Make In India became a mission for the government”, says Jitendra. He adds, “We are dependent on imports only for a few components as these components are not available locally and we aspire to become 100% self-reliant in near future”.
https://www.asiabusinessoutlook.com/manufacturing/vendor/genus-power-infrastructures-serving-society-through-industry-cid-4.html
We have a good idea how large Genus is today, and what manufacturing capability it may have going forward but when you re read the GIC and Genus Power Infra tie up from July 23 .....the scale of Genus's ambitions become even clearer.
"GIC, Singapore, has launched a new platform in India to fund smart metering projects in the country." , a new platform !...and "with a capital outlay of $2 billion, Genus would be the exclusive supplier to the platform for smart meters and associated services"
The partners have committed to an INITIAL pipeline with a capital outlay of $2 billion. therefore, on top of the RDSS and India Rollout etc Genus will also be the exclusive supplier of smart meters to this two billion fund.
" Genus would supplement its manufacturing and execution prowess with access to capital. Genus will scale up the deployment of energy smart meters across India".
Hi CB,
Just hope Cyan announce a wider development in their agreement with Genus, where presently Genus manufacture the earlier one million contract award ( 2022) , and continue to manufacture any decide to manufacture further awards to Cyan from the recent Genus AMISP awards..have to wait for that one.. .If Cyan could expand this strategy to a few other consortium large players then could be a game changer - but I think we need to see more awards to Amisps , especially Cyan friendly AMIsps to see how this develops. GL Vas
If these awards to AMISPs continues as it should then the next nine months or so will be like a conveyor belt, with todays and future AMISP awards only really being declared to their subcontractors and us - a few months down the line from date of each Amisp award.... so this present award to Genus, may only be awarded to a sub contractor such as Cyan and made public, anything up to 3 months or more from today.
The conveyor belt started on the first award to an Amisp, so a few awards made a month or two ago should be coming up for the second round awards to the sub contractors sometime soonish.
Considering Genus has been doing so well winning awards these past few months, then should bode well for Cyan possibly this side of Xmas or January 24.
What do you think the chances are that Genus, who now have their hoped for early awards confirmed and have won millions of smart meter installations already, just this month, have now firmed up discussions with Cyan about quantity's etc . This seems plausible as prior to being actually awarded the contracts Genus and cyan could only surmise what the numbers could be. Now a few awards are confirmed , maybe Cyan do need to raise money to fund these orders , and the ones that may follow in a few months.
It was expected, and now looks very likely that Genus will take one of the largest slices of the Indian smart meter rollout Pie.
So now the awards are actually being awarded, Genus will select their preferred subcontractors to ensure a fast rollout , hitting all SLAs. IMO
Someone is going to get some very valuable long term contracts on the back of Genus's present day success , and with so much more to come down that conveyor belt - we still have every reason to believe it could be us.
Ill be OK about another raise, on the back of some confirmed mega awards from Genus or the like, that confirm the direction for Cyan but not without some serious award attached, as if i have a choice lol
Well Done CB & Gizmo.
This is yet another new tender for Genus ,
"Genus Power Infrastructures’ step-down wholly owned subsidiary has received a letter of award (LOA) of Rs 2,247.37 crore (net of taxes) for appointment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers (AMISPs) including design of Advance Metering Infrastructure (AMI) system with supply, installation and commissioning with FMS of 24.18 lakh Smart Prepaid Meters, system meters including OT Meters with corresponding energy accounting under DBFOOT model (HYBRID Model, CAPEX Plus OPEX)."
https://www.sharesbazaar.com/news/view/1041476
Any one know what "commissioning with FMS" means ?
The Genus award I posted on 9th October was for supply, installation and commissioning of 34.8 lakh smart prepaid meters, worth Rs 3,115 crore
https://www.bqprime.com/business/genus-power-bags-orders-worth-rs-3115-crore-for-smart-meters
I'm not invested but thought I would post this, out today ..just in case not aware. Gl
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seeing-machines-dashcam-revenue-is-in-the-fast-lane-7wwmftxn5
Hi ITT,
I think its important to keep in mind that while Genus are winning multiple massive contracts these past few weeks and months , I'm pretty sure that this is just stage one, prime contactors or AMISPS being awarded - so still early days as far as awards to sub contractors go, which we are informed could take approx. three months or more.
There is a very good chance Genus have not awarded any subcontractor awards as of yet.
As for the share price drop, it seems to have began just after the trading statement, and carried on relentlessly - lost around 50% since then - I thought the trading statement was good :) .
Shows you how much I know...
All I can add about todays SP is an observation that if you had bought CC at the year low for the past three years - then you would have made money each year, pretty much a fact as opposed to buying the share at any other time during annual sp cycle, for each of the last years.
This does not explain what is happening to SP today, nor explain what may happen next nor does it really matter going forward and best of all - this forthcoming twelve months should be massively more positive than at any time during the previous three years - with a new share price high, more likely IMO.
Check for yourselves the best time to have bought CC in the past three years.....and how developments over next half could positively impact the SP going forward. GL Vas
Hi Tony,
This might explain , or partly.
https://www.livemint.com/companies/news/clp-group-unit-plans-a-public-listing-in-india-in-3-4-years-11658342875570.html
Yes, there are two Amisps in Gujarat , IntelliSmart and Apraava and two utilities awarding meters, these are DGVCL who awarded Intellismart 17.7 Lakh Smart Meters of which very recently 300,000 were awarded to Cyan.
The second utility is PGVCL, who have awarded, or so it seems 23.6 Lakh Smart Meters to Apraava.
This would account for Apraava only declaring one award a while ago from Assam for approx. 600,000 meters and today has 3 million meters awarded from Assam and Gujarat.
Will Apraava require RF ( very likely) , and who will they award ?
Thanks LT,
It sees that they have not had time to update their web site going by the link you provided, as under AMI, they still only have Assam (APDCL) listed as a customer for around 693,077 meters to be installed, and from my earlier link they mentioned they have around 3 million awarded to them from Assam and Gujarat states.
As an end to end solution provider that according to REC provides cellular and RF solutions to the Indian rollout they are becoming quite a tease :)
Cheers Vas
Morning LT,
A little more about Apraava below, just in case it comes in useful.
Apraava is now jointly owned , 50 % each by CLP Holdings and CDPQ Infrastructures Asia II.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/renewables/cdpq-to-buy-10-more-stake-in-apraava-energy/articleshow/92836894.cms?from=mdr
from Director of CLP, recently
" Apraava Energy is foraying into the advanced metering infrastructure business after becoming the
most competitive bidder for two projects to install around 3 million smart meters in Assam and Gujarat states."
page 5
https://annualreport.clpgroup.com/AR2022/Snapshot/en/doc/CEO_Message_EN.pdf
cheers vas
Afternoon All.
One way of looking at this share, if your positive is that possibly in 12 -18 months the CC pipeline of confirmed orders could have grown from around 5 million smart meters ( £60m -£75m) Today, to say 20 million ( £240 m - £300 m) by then or even much higher.
its hard to believe that at least the first 100 million meters awards, if not them all would not have been handed out to AMISPS and sub contractors by that time.
Of course this is the reason many are invested, and if it comes to pass then even though only a small percentage of the CC awards would have been implemented by this time, the confirmed pipeline of orders going to CC hopefully looking forward should add a massive amount of value to the company. Of , course a re rate to the SP could happen long before next year , depending on when the numbers fall, and what size awards come first.
My understanding which is limited tells me that the Indian rollout for the first 100 million smart meters , is aimed at the low bearing fruit in regions and with utilities with the biggest power theft, loss, non payments etc , and many of these are in rural areas and I think involve big industry, also. These are exactly the same challenges that CC solution was made for, and has proven can eliminate in India- so there is a chance that CC get over the 20 million meter awards in the first wave. Then they can take their chances in the remaining 150 million meters that come along next.
meanwhile, the share price is what it is, and will remain this way until hopefully the numbers really start to stack up, each award adding significant value.
Not surprisingly, Genus have made plans..
https://www.ibm.com/case-studies/genus-power-infrastructures#:~:text=Genus%20Power%20Infrastructures%20Ltd.%20is,for%20utility%20and%20energy%20boards.
Thanks for your reply LT.
Something I discovered in a genus earnings call from earlier in the year, where one of the analysts asked this question
"Sir, first question is, in general, there has been a lot of tenders in the market, and we have seen some of the tenders IntelliSmart and Apraava Energy have won the contracts who do not have manufacturing capacity. Do you have some exclusive tie-up with all these — the large players?"
The managing director Genus replies " Hello. Yeah. Good evening. So, of course, on this AMISP players who are seeing the big contracts, they do work with us as suppliers, and frankly, we have got orders from IntelliSmart for supplying smart meters for them in AMISP projects."
and the Genus Director goes further, in answering the next question from the analyst, by saying
"So, the relationship is typical buyer and seller relationship and we are receiving orders from all the AMISPs who are working currently in the market."
So Genus are not only supplying themselves , so to manage their own awards, but they are supplying all AMISPs , including IntelliSmart !
https://alphastreet.com/india/genus-power-infrastructures-limited-genuspower-q3-fy23-earnings-concall-transcript/
So taking into account the above, IntelliSmart for example ( but could be any Indian AMISP) could place an order with Cyan, who request Genus to manufacture the meters, and supply. Cyan get paid at some point .
So In theory, all Cyans orders won in India via AMISPS could be handled by Genus, who manufacture and deliver - Just a thought. If this is the case then the model is just like what Tony was mentioning earlier today, talking about "In past JC was quite precise about Genus paying for modules at the gate upon delivery".
also, this out last week
"In a significant milestone, RECPDCL, a wholly owned subsidiary of REC Limited specializing in power sector consultancy, has inked Implementation Contracts and Direct Debit Facility (DDF) Agreements with Advanced Metering Infrastructure Service Providers (AMISPs) IntelliSmart and Apraava Energy."
This collaboration involves the deployment of 17.7 Lakh Smart Meters and 23.6 Lakh Smart Meters for Dakshin Gujarat Vij Company Ltd (DGVCL) and Paschim Gujarat Vij Company Ltd (PGVCL), respectively.
https://recindia.nic.in/recpdcl-inks-implementation-contracts-and-ddf-agreements-for-gujarat-with-amisps