The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
HI LT, You may recall this, but I do not and when i tried to find out more about the utility or region that the project took place in , i can find absolutely nothing. It's unlikely to be one of the usual suspects in terms of Indian projects as they would have named it.
I can only fins this link and a mention on the SEW web sight.
"IntelliSmart and SEW won Best Smart Grid Project in India – Technology Company/Implementing Agency category at the India Smart Grid Forum 2023 ".
It would be good to know what two of our partners are working on In India, and why they are wining awards like bet smart smart grid project. GL Vas
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7038425664907001856
Now we know that Ajoy Rajani is Cyan's leading Business Development in the Americas and also has been, and remains advisor to SEW , it make the CC RNS from 2021 much more meaningful.
"SEW is delighted to partner with CyanConnode and offer its customers CyanConnode's intelligent communication solutions, in the knowledge that this technology has been proven by worldwide commercial scale deployments.
At the same time this collaboration will allow our platform to be deployed globally as utilities continue their digital transformation journey."
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/detail?dockey=1323-14980484-7H4VGNQH2BR6MQV4D244SC09MI
Afternoon LT.
Thank you for your US posts and imagine if CC in future succeeded in wining business in the US !
The sp might even jump a penny ! LOl
Something I have noticed is that in the media Ajoy Rajani is sometimes referred to as Ajay Rajani and for while it was quite confusing as both of these names have multiple[le owners.
A good example here .
If you look at this page, of a List of India Smart Grid Forum (ISGF) employees Ajay is listed as currently working for
The ISGF ( board of governors) for approx. thirteen years
and
CyanConnode as advisor for approx. over two years
and also since 2019 he has been employed as a member of the board of advisors at Smart Energy Water ( Irvine, California) in USA !, and California is listed as his present location
as well as with OBO consulting for two years , based in Paris.
https://www.signalhire.com/companies/india-smart-grid-forum-isgf/employees
If you read his bio here, Ajoy is credited with working as
"advisor to the board of Smart Energy Water (Irvine, California) and was formerly on the board of CDMA Development Group. (San Diego, California)."
Ajay / Ajoy has been busy advising SEW, USA for several years , while continuing to be employed as adviser to CC - so a deal of some type could be closer than we would normally think, at this stage of the proceedings in USA.
Good to see another region developing behind the scenes. GL and Thanks Vas
Hi Tony, Something I did not realise is that any AMISP who wins an award can has the "Flexibility to select/
change subcontractor".
This is IMO an interesting point as the AMISP can't be changed after the award unless of a violation but they could inn theory start their award with one subcontractor to provide a solution, and drop them and selct another contractor to finish the job to the SLA.
This is interesting because even if CC are not initially selected by a AMISP , say on cost, or partnership reasons the AMISP must ensure that the SLA'S are being met, and they can still select an alternative , better solution from another contractor to meet the SLAs, and bite the bullet regarding the extra cost.
Good to know that in extreme situations there may be two bites of this very lucrative cherry !
page 15
It also seems that AMISPs need to ensure operationalization of 5% smart meters
or 25000 meters (whichever is less), to start their monthly payments, which are based on number of meters operationalized.
https://cyanconnode.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Smart-Metering-in-India-Webinar_22Apr2022.pdf
Cyan is a difficult share , especially identifying any proper trends, but if we look at the past few years trading updates etc, and what we are told by the company then Cyan's first half year is their weakest. They tend to get their large wins during their second half . I think we all know this.
The trading update to 30th September released yesterday was very good, but is still a reflecting of their least profitable year half.
If you look back a couple of years to early/mid Oct 2021 the sp hit a low of 11.5 p and bounced a round hitting highs of 26p, and again 23p , and again 21p until late Feb 22 , and then fell away.
Likewise Sept / October 22 hitting lows of around 12p before touching highs of 26p, and again 24p before falling away again in March 22.
All these prices where the highs of their year, and occurred in the second half of their financial year.
So here we are in October 23 , in similar positions as in October 2021 and 2022 with a share price of around 11p .
Ok , on a negative we have bad market sentiment to deal with, but on the positive side we have the following to look forward to in the second half and beyond of this financial year...
a) An excellent trading update yesterday IMO - heading in the right direction and most importantly before many of the major Indian tenders awards have been announced.
b) 250 million meters to be awarded to AMISPS , and many to sub contractors over next six months and onwards.
c) We are "On trend" as far as my simple observation indicates - so if the trend continues - should expect a good share price rise, on the back of even more news than usual in the coming months.
So, if I am correct, unless their is a catastrophe, todays share price has historically been a good buy signal and could well be very lucrative - especially this year when you factor in the unprecedented added value of India actually in the process of handing out many mega contracts.
I have been adding more this week, all shown as red - i decided on the basis we are at a yearly historic low, with a yearly trend, and potentially a even more exciting game changing second half to look forward too, than previous years .
GL Vas
Good progress made IMO.
Last years, Interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2022 (H1 FY 2023) stated
Our recent win rate from contracts tendered has been 27% in volume (this financial year) and installed rate is circa 25%. CyanConnode is currently bidding for contracts worth more than £1 billion in value. Our Partners have recently been named as Level 1 status for greater than 25 million units, which, whilst we don't expect to win all of them, suggests a bright future "
Now , as PIs we do not have any idea of what contracts CC or their partners are involved in, and so rely on them to update us .
If CC are going to quote win rates, and install rates then I would wish they continue to include them in future updates - so that we can compare. I know there may be / will be periods of low wins rates, and then periods of much higher wins to compensate - but just one historical snap shot, is meaningless unless compared to future data....
I think from memory, and from recent presentations the second half of year is historically the time CC get the majority of their orders, and significantly next six months onwards is massively different. There is a once in a life time opportunity in India up for grabs over next twelve months or less, will be a frenzy of contract awards , for hundreds of millions of smart meters , worth billions of pounds - likely to be concluded in next six to twelve months - so you could argue Todays update (IMO is good) is much less important as to how they perform and secure contracts during next six - nine months - it will be these contracts that will propel the future SP.
I cant see how how CCs BODs can have any idea of likely numbers relating to future contract wins , as rely on the second level awards , to the subcontractor - so cannot be confident - until that time, I think CC are wise to play it very conservatively.
If I am honest with myself, i am no longer interested in what CC was, or is today but i am only invested for what will they achieve over the next year . I am only going to make money here if CC win contracts, become a bankable " Made in India" solution provider, and export.
I think in a nut shell most Long-term investors here have been invested all this time, just for the next 6- 12 months and GL All
Evening LT,
Thanks for your report on Indonesia. The opportunities are massive. I imagine the all smart metering solution company's world wide , including China will be trying to get their solutions in pilots in Indonesia. Reminds me a bit of Cyan way , way back, when they had a small pilot in the Amazon!
The big difference today is that if CC are successful, India will be their biggest advocate, and probably wish to export their solution to country's like Indonesia and ROW, as part of their "Made In India" initiative.
Meanwhile , here is a recent news report, regarding Indonesia. Can I ask you do we have / have we had any relationship with STMicroelectronics ? I seem to remember, way back they were a distributor to Cyan.
https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/smart-meters/50000-smart-meter-lorawan-retrofit-in-indonesia/
I seem to recall Malaysia being highlighted as potential for opportunities so thought i would post this link and hope for the best.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2023/10/962189/pestech-wins-tnb-job-supply-smart-meters
Utility Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam Limited (UHBVNL)
This employee states that he
Smart MeteringSmart Metering
Jul 2018 - May 2022Jul 2018 - May 2022
Associated with Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitaran Nigam Limited
Show project
1) Implementation of one Million smart meters in selected Urban part of Haryana ( India) on GPRS technology.
2)Implementation of two Million smart meters through out Haryana ( India) on Hybrid technology i.e. RF and GPRS.
It looks like to me the hybrid model helped with the first phase of a million meters in Urban Haryana and they have now chosen to go the hybrid route for a further two million meters.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasnir-singh-b0887089/?originalSubdomain=in
REC’s ambitious growth roadmap for 2023-24.
According to an interview with REC Ltd CMD Vivek Kumar Dewangan on 22nd September 23.
When asked about of the status of project approvals under RDSS he said
"Most of the states have approved DPRs and invited tenders...( except Karnataka and Telangana)
We hope that by the end of October, 60% of the loss reduction would be awarded. ..
The tendering process for 9 crore meters should be concluded by this October , with the remaining awarded by next March."
Confirmation that the next six months and onwards will be eventful, and as we wait for the sub contractors to be announced after each individual tender award - its good to know we start this process this month with around 90 million smart meters being up for grabs by end of this month, and this number building to 250 m smart meters to be awarded over next six months - an average of 30 million new meters each month from November 23.
Assuming that CC win their portion of these tenders its all about how the tenders / numbers fall for CC now, and at which end of the six month plus window they fall .....
The thing that stood out for me in the CMD of RECs interview above was his mention of "We hope that by the end of October, 60% of the loss reduction would be awarded", as we know the first phase / target of the smart meter rollout for RDSS is to bring down the energy losses /waste/ theft etc in specific areas and many of these areas are where CC already have a foot hold - so with luck these "problem / difficult" areas that CC are know to operate could be awarded earlier rather than later. Maybe wishful thinking. GL Vas
Tony , IF CC managed to get Bihar out of a situation where GPRS alone could not complete the SLA then form the numbers provided , and if Bihar stick with a hybrid solution ( considering that they concentrated on urban areas initially) then the future in Bihar looks very promising IMO. for Cyan.
Recent account of the initial rollout that hopefully CC helped rectify - September 23
"With installation of more than 12.50 lakh Smart Pre-paid Meters in urban areas which constitutes more than 50% of the total consumers of urban areas, there has been significant improvement in quality of meter reading and billing resulting in increased collection and a significant reduction in AT&C losses also. Now DISCOMs are facing practically no issues related to revenue matters wherever these meters has been installed along with no expenditure on meter reading billing and its collection. "
On the basis of this success,
The report states
"After successful implementation of Smart Prepaid metering in urban areas of Bihar, a decision was taken during 2021-22 for extending the implementation of smart prepaid metering covering entire rural areas of Bihar having 1.48 Crore Rural Consumers in Phases under HYBRID Model "
Just as an aside , this report from June 23.
"Currently, two softwares are used to take care of smart prepaid meter billing activities ( in Bihar).
The first one is managed by Energy Efficiency Services Limited and the second one by NIC.
Due to these two software, SBPCL and NBPDCL are facing problems in their operations (as they are not interoperable).
To counter this problem, the selected agency will develop one software as well as manage it.
https://www.muzcorner.in/2023/06/bihar-hiring-agency-solve-smart-meter-billing-problems.html
Sorry Tony.
I forgot to add that Accenture was used as software developer for development of prepaid functionality feature in the smart metering in Bihar, along with EESL (AMISP) and EDF as System Integrator. The report states
"Considering the challenges faced during the initial stage of development it was decided to form a joint team consisting of IT Professionals of Distribution Companies overseeing/ monitoring the IT work of SAP Billing in urban areas and NIC billing in Rural Areas with AMISP and its IT Team of Accenture."
And the report i referred to in my previous link was Indo – German Energy Program Energy Transition with Discoms Roadmap for Smart Meter Interoperability in India November 2022"
The Consulting Partners for this report was also Accenture Solutions Private Ltd.
Hi tony,
I am no expert either - so struggle with terminology and meaning sometimes.
If you read this note below. "Roadmap for Smart Meter Interoperability in India" November 2022
It came out just after the Genus award to CC and uses Bihar a a case study.
If you look at Bihar case study , the second utility Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam Limited (UHBVNL)
They give their observations such ast he original tender states "The smart meter must have a GPRS communication
module which shall be of pluggable-type and shall be capable of servicing technologies such as 2G, 3G and
4G • Communication infrastructure: o The communication infrastructure should be based on GPRS technology. The GPRS communication network shall be capable of servicing 3G technology compliant with IPv6.
Then the report states
"The utility is in the planning stage for deploying additional
20 lakh meters for which hybrid communication technology
will be considered (cellular + RF Mesh), as opposed to the
current cellular technology (3G)."
It sounds like there was a problem with using just GPRS technology as requested in Tender, and they opted for a hybrid solution of GPRS and RF.
I also could be wrong but interesting. GL Tony and sorry its so long winded.
https://www.energyforum.in/fileadmin/user_upload/india/media_elements/publications/20230413_DISCOM_REPORTS/GIZ-Accenture_Smart_Meter_Interoperability.pdf
Well worth a read.
https://bestpractices.pppinindia.in/best-practice-detail/smart-metering-with-prepaid-functionality-%E2%80%93-challenges-and-success-story-of-bihar
Ajay (Ajoy) Rajani has taken on the role of Executive Vice Chairman of CyanConnode India and Business Development Americas.
"Ajoy joined CyanConnode in December 2020, bringing with him extensive experience from the Indian power, telecom, and IT sectors. He has previously held senior roles at Reliance Communications and Reliance Energy Mumbai. In his new role, Ajoy will focus on enhancing our Sales & Business Development initiatives in #India and exploring opportunities in the American #smartmetering markets."
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7113118492140183553/
This one is more user friendly for some reason. A new company!
https://www.falconebiz.com/company/SOUTHERN-ELECTRIC-METERING-PRIVATE-LIMITED-U35109MH2023PTC403789
Forgot the link with me prattling on.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/avinash-chauhan-1707156b/?originalSubdomain=in
Evening LT.
Thanks for the REC updates.
This gent according to his Linkedin page is still employed by SAI in Uttar Pradesh, but is strangely also listed as Site Manager at CyanConnode !
If you look at other similar positions in CC or any company's they all usually state the employee's most recent post at the top of their work history.
it does not appear to be the case here and just seems odd.
Maybe it just needs to be updated, but in the past i have often had the feeling that CC either on board staff early from company's they later become involved with or alternatively staff from CC leave to work in a company which turn out later to be significant. In a way this makes total sense in sharing information and skills with any potential partner. Only a feeling so could be just wishful thinking.
If Sai where anticipating using CCs RF solution in any bids, then they would have some of their staff all over the technology long before they where to make the commitment. GL Vas
Someone said a while ago on this BB this share was good for traders, and here we are again at around 11.5p, just like a few months ago, and several times last year. The good news in the past is what happens to the sp shortly after this particular low is hit. fingers crossed. GL