PYX Resources: Achieving volume and diversification milestones. Watch the video here.
Superbly put Dick and I guess we'll just have to import more of the stuff from the rest of the world and who cares that their carbon emissions are higher than GBA (insert any other UK oil & gas field) - the politicians aren't going to trouble voters with that kind of small detail. At least the politicians can point to the UK leading the way in decimating their own oil industry that produces less than 1% of global oil production each year. Please stop laughing at the back.
Thanks Dick, excellent post as always. Unless an offer is made for JOG it's hard to see the share price going anywhere until the final decision is made to go ahead with the project. If we're now at the bottom which I think you're suggesting a positive final investment decision should propel the share price much higher later this year. Naively I hadn't factored in the possibility (or given it much weighting) that the project might not go ahead at all. I shall continue to be patient and hope for a miracle at the polls in Oct/Nov.
In addition to the non-committal reference to Buchan in the presentation this paragraph from Serica's results (under 'Outlook') is rather concerning (to me anyway):
'A draft FDP has been submitted for the Buchan Horst field. As with all major capital projects, a final investment decision, which is not expected before the latter part of 2024, depends in part on the impact on project economics of expectations for the future tax regime which will apply through the life of the project.'
So if Labour win the general election later this year, as most commentators expect, it would seem a final investment decision is going to at least partly hinge on what impact their planned draconian tax regime on UKCS has on the project.
This adds an element of uncertainty to the project actually going ahead that, rightly or wrongly, I have not previously considered to be material. Perhaps Serica are just being ultra cautious in their wording (I hope so).
Thanks for your informative posts LOTM. I’m no expert just someone who’s held this share for too long! Anyway I see that Egypt has secured $8bn of funding from the IMF today. Could this help Capricorn secure some/all of the receivables due from Egypt? It may even explain the slight up tick in the share price today but WDIK
What the price drop in 2017 and 2019 has to do with the position JOG are in now is a bit beyond me and I strongly disagree that "buying JOG shares is taking a punt". As others have said the presentation uploaded to the website yesterday goes out of it's way to highlight the current value gap. We all know there are political risks but we also know we're going to need North Sea oil for many years to come. And who's talking about gambling life savings, that could never be a rational investment decision. I don't comment often but that just annoyed me this morning.
Fab-u-lous! What's not to like - especially £3.5m in performance fees.
Not hard to see why with net debt more or less equivalent to current market cap. Pleased to see though that discussions re. refinancing debt due in April 2024 have been positive.
Staying on the positive theme the board expects to meet current market forecasts for the year end of which the consensus is for adjusted EBITDA of £10.2m. That's with adjusted EBITDA at the half year of £2.9m. So as they say the second half should be a lot stronger (and that seems to be the case 3 months in) and so for me a bit more patience is required before we get the rerating that's surely due. Will be interesting to see if ST takes a positive view later today.
This is the link: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/small-companies/?page=1
but you'll need to subscribe to IC to read the piece in full.
Consolidation is 2 new shares for every 3 existing.
It's a shame the market doesn't seem to react to ST's recommendation quite in the way it once did. Nonetheless following yesterday's interim's he's penned another piece this morning titled "A potential multi-bagger North Sea oil play". Mentions again the unwarranted discount to fair valuations and predicts a second farm-out is likely to drive an overdue re-rating. So nothing we don't know but good to note his enthusiasm for JOG remains undiminished.
Simon Thompson has this afternoon highlighted JOG's "chronic undervaluation". Thinks a 2nd farm-out will bring this into "sharp focus". ST sees the higher oil price since June and the change in the government's stance on NS oil & gas as positives for JOG - so nothing surprising there but I guess good reason for this reminder that much better times could be just round the corner. Whether this will fall on deaf ears again is a moot point.
At last, comments from a government minister in the FT this morning that Dick (and others) have been stating for some time i.e. it doesn't make sense to buy oil and gas from other countries at a higher cost & twice the carbon emissions! Take a bow Grant Shapps!