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I'm quite encouraged by all the potentially accretive news building up in the relative short term. Could all this happen by end of 2021?
1. Kiziltepe: Drill programme leading to new resource leading to an extended life of mine.
2. Tavsan: One last drill programme after Kiziltepe complete to confirm Reserve. E.I.A. permit, final land purchases (35%) and Finance approval.
3. Salinbas: Drill programme to commence after Tavsan. Michael said it was "Huge" yesterday. Straight to Full Feasibility Study
4. Cyprus: Definitive Agreement by mid Nov.on 50/50 JV to develop Aplike & Venus IPO by end of year.
5. Eastern Europe: Ongoing
6. Asgard Metals Fund: Ongoing - IPO of Panther Australia before end of year.
7. Panmure Gordon Broker note.
8. Second dividend by end of March 2022.
A few biggies in short order, could potentially gives us the impetus we need to get a proper re-rate. Perhaps Panmure Gordon will be able to reflect the value of the above into a sensible price target.
I hear Tom Winnifrith published comment yesterday saying the concluded Aplike Agreement could be the catalyst to see the shares back above 6p. But there is so much more than just Cyprus as listed above. Perhaps it is time to get excited especially given the current share price disconnect.
Perhaps Mentor Demi, Kosovo, Western Tethyan Resources and Peter Van Deborgh should be on the Ariana board. They are increasingly playing a key role in the developing strategy. Not sure why Kerim doesn’t give them more profile.
Pay day guys & girls. Some are reinvesting their dividend and that is driving the price higher today. Apparently Charles Stanley, II and IG have already credited their clients. In fact IG did it at 8.15!
Others haven't.
This means many are disadvantaged and will have to pay higher prices to re-invest.
I would suggest you should complain to your broker and you will have suffered financial loss which is a serious issue.
Biggles on ADVFN who has a noticeable interest (over 3%) hasn't had his. He must be fuming.
The Co. have done well to keep a lid on news and keep the share price low, but once everyone has had a chance to reinvest their dividends I hope they let the news roll big time.
The Director's bought shares about a month ago which meant we were in a "closed" period for news. I believe we are now out of the "closed" period, and I'm confident there is a lot of important news to flow.
1. Salinbas drilling started in September
2. Results from Cyprus - should be good. Due early Q4?
3. Tavsan E.I.A. permit - overdue & Covid delayed, but Govt. Dept's getting back to normal now.
4. Kosovo & Eastern Europe update/plans
5. Exploration & Development plans
6. Improved production at Kiziltepe as a result of new Ball Mill and higher grade feed material etc.
7. Possible Hizarliyayla drilling to start before Christmas - Kerim said this in a Q& A back in June. That really excites me.
So lots of news, pay-out stimulating reinvestment and perhaps positive momentum & gold hardening hopefully all running up to Christmas.
Hi John,
Dying to know which Co has been drawing your attention? Will understand if you prefer not to say.
Incidentally, I'm still in touch with Mr Pizza Express No. 3 namely Paul. He posts from time to time on ADVFN and remains a strong supporter of Ariana,
Apparently there is a Nigel Somerville note out. Anyone seen it?
I've read that Gold & Silver are on the cusps of a strong positive run based on momentum analysis. Let's hope that is the case.
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Hi John
If you have a look at the latest Annual Report & Accounts on page 12 or indeed in the latest presentation on the web site you will find a chart which is the next best thing to a Gantt chart we have been repeatedly calling for.
There it shows Tavsan going out to 2030 with a production rate of c. 30,000 ounces of gold per annum. The report says that "it is expected that the mine life will exceed 6 years and a new resource drilling programme is expected to be completed during 2021" . We know the infill and extension resource drilling programme should be complete probably fairly soon which then enables them to press on with the Feasibility Study. Of course they also need the E.I.A. signed off - "making its way through the final approval process" and 35% more land acquisitions.
All looking good. Hope that helps.
I'm no expert on trading volumes or how Market Makers move the price and spread, (secret science?) but it seems to me it wouldn't take much concerted buying to move the price quite considerably.
Traders must be aware that many investors will use all or part of the special pay-out later this month to buy more Ariana shares and that alone could have a marked positive impact on the share price. Will they want to buy in ahead of that?
But on Fundamentals it looks like the Tavsan E.I.A. is very close from what they said this morning and the market will acknowledge that is a major milestone in the path to getting into production at our second mine. A big de-risking milestone. There is always a concern that locals will object etc. but that consultation process is now complete and the application has been re-submitted to the powers that be to grant the E.I.A. So that was a big plus this morning. Perhaps it will take a bit of time for that to sink in.
The second SAG Ball Mill has also been constructed and completed so throughput numbers from here on in will be up nicely, compensating and more for the current lower grade ore. Don't forget they also told us in July they have a stockpile of over 285,000 tonnes that has been established, representing about 10 months of enhanced production capacity.
We were also told earlier that drilling at Salinbas could start in September.
As has already been mentioned, we should imo be due some exciting news from Cyprus in Q4.
I'm expecting (optimistically) that the next release on Cyprus will start to put the potential there into some sort of context.
So going back to my question about how little volume is needed to shift the share price, Q4 could, with a bit of luck, at last see us re-rated to a more realistic level without even that much buying effort. Bring in heavy buying and who knows what could happen.
Anyone agree?
Investor Meet Company shared a post: We are delighted to be working with Open Orphan Plc. Join Cathal Friel Chairman and Co Founder for a live investor presentation today at 5:30pm BST. Join Here: hxxps://lnkd.in/dA8GGaX #investing #capital markets
Just spoken to Henry Wilkinson at Yellow Jersey. The AGM on 18th is to be a normal event. All are welcome. There are no restriction on numbers. Turn up with proof from your broker of your shareholding and get the chance to hear Kerim's live Zoom new presentation and the Board answer pre submitted questions and questions posed on the day. Is anyone hoping to attend?
The presentation and the Answers to Questions will be posted on the Co. website subsequently. I'm told they will not be videoing the event. With Government Covid restrictions removed it is business as normal. He could not confirm why the ex dividend date had not been announced.
I posted this on ADVFN as clearly some are getting restless.
Investing can be annoying, but it is rarely a short term affair. If you are happy with the fundamentals and have confidence the key movers will drive out value and are well invested themselves,("skin in the game") as here, it is as always just a matter of being patient. Justin Waite of Vox Markets was recently talking about this very issue. He says from his experience over many years it is best to get committed to say 5 shares and then hold them through market fluctuations. Trading in and out or from one share to another, rarely results in the best results long term. Over the years I've had a number of Ten Baggers and that is exactly my experience.
There are quite a few long term shareholders invested big time in Ariana who aren't going anywhere fast. We've been waiting years to seriously explore the Hot Gold Corridor which will start with Salinbas (September?) and perhaps a bit latter Hizarliyayla (just a few kilometres north of Hot Maden, where the've found a world class gold deposit). Ariana on it's own didn't really have the wherewithal to really make proper strides in the Hot Gold Corridor but now we have Qzaltin on board, who have committed a separate $US8m into this project to take it to Feasibility Study stage, we are ready to roll.
This could be the Company maker and I've great confidence that will prove to be the case. In the meantime they are going to pay me for my patience, so sitting around is just that little bit easier. Hang on in there.
I responded to another shareholder as below. Might be of interest John.
So I believe Ariana (Kerim) plan to surprise the market on any one or more of these exciting developments.
Red Rabbit Kiziltepe, Kepez, Karakavak, Kizilcukur, Ivrindi
Hot Gold Corridor: - Ardale - Salinbas - Hizarliyayla, Derinkoy
Venus Minerals - Cyprus - Magellan
Western Tethyan Resources - Lecce Magmatic Complex, Varder Belt - Kosovo & opportunities possibly in Bosnia, Herzegovina, Bulgaria, North Macedonia & Serbia
Asgard Metals - Australia - Project Catalytic investments
BUT also ask yourself these questions perhaps?
1 An AIM gold explorer turned producer. How often do you see that?
2 An AIM gold explorer/ producer paying down over 30 mill of debt to basically zero. How often do you see that?
3 An AIM gold/ explorer managing to create a JV with a major Conglomerate and bank nearly 40 mil.l How often do you see that?
4 An AIM gold explorer/ producer offering a generous dividend and seeing to continue a dividend policy. How often do we see that?
5 An AIM gold explorer/ producer that will bank millions pa from their JV and now furthering exploration and more JVs in other jurisdictions How often etc etc
We do have superb geologists who seem to have an uncanny nose for PM discovery.
6 An AIM company that delivers, albeit at there own pace. A company that under promises and over delivers
7. An Miner with operational costs in the lowest quartile ($490/oz versus av. $1000/ oz)
8. Gold discovery costs of $12/oz versus average of $62/oz
There are aspects of Management, the size of the Board, succession planning and communication/PR which need improvement but overall I remain confident Kerim will deliver on the vision & strategy he articulated back in the Proactive Article in February.
On 18th Feb. Kerim did a Proactive Investor article where he said "we are now planning to grow our market capitalisation another tenfold". That is a laudable, tangible, quantifiable vision (goal). In that article he also said appropriately, under "next steps" - to develop the company strategy to target a further ten fold multiplication in market capitalisation within the next decade". "I now see no obstacles to achieving our target by 2030 and I encourage our shareholders to support this vision".
On the contrary I think there will be evidence of improving grades like at Kepez North :- Significant positive increase in average grade to 7.14g/t Au + 64.65g/t Ag. plus Substantially improved classification of the Resource to approximately 86% Measured and 14% Indicated. And at Derya. This was recently announced. High-grade potential at Derya includes the previously reported "Bonanza Zone" intercept of 12.1m @ 13.1g/t Au + 187.6g/t Ag. Then in May they reported on Banu Vein - New significant intercepts within the vein system include:
o 4.1m @ 3.58g/t Au + 78.9g/t Ag
o 7.0m @ 2.01g/t Au + 70.6g/t Ag
o 2.6m @ 5.08g/t Au + 102.5g/t Ag
Finally in the latest RNS on the Special Payout Kerim said this:- In line with our growth strategy going forward, we also hope to distribute future dividends arising from ongoing profits generated by our existing operations and those arising out of future undertakings." Sounds like ongoing dividends to me. He has verbalised this in recent Interviews as well.
Hi John
There is a great graphic on page 12 of the Annual Report and Accounts which shows the point you are raising and states how production is expected to develop over this decade resulting from the new Ball Mill at Kiziltepe, the second mine at Tavsan and the third mine at Salinbas.
All very clear and dare I say it, the next best thing to the long lamented loss of the Co's Gantt chart.
But I think we have to appreciate that Ariana is not a primarily a mining Co. It wants to use mining and the profits generated to enhance it's profile and success at being a Development and Exploration Co. This is Kerim's key strength and his main interest in life. A means to an end. There is evidence that grades are improving (Kepez, Derya etc.) but yes 2021 won't be a year with increased profits. But as long as the Co. has the cash to do the E & D work and pay us a regular dividend, that is fine by me. Market Cap. growth will come from successes, primarily from the following strategies imo.
If you are looking for a pure mining Co. then perhaps others would be more appropriate.
So I believe Ariana (Kerim) plan to surprise the market on any one or more of these exciting developments.
Red Rabbit Kiziltepe, Kepez, Karakavak, Kizilcukur, Ivrindi
Hot Gold Corridor: - Ardale - Salinbas - Hizarliyayla, Derinkoy
Venus Minerals - Cyprus - Magellan
Western Tethyan Resources - Lecce Magmatic Complex, Varder Belt - Kosovo & opportunities possibly in Bosnia, Herzegovina, Bulgaria, North Macedonia & Serbia
Asgard Metals - Australia - Project Catalytic investments
Agreed?
IG interview
https://youtu.be/x0mn8VWcnHc