Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Bit different to the L & G!! But sounds great fun. We have electric bikes which we carry around on the back of our Devon Tempest Camper Van. We've had them 12 months now and done circa 2500 miles. They are brilliant. Best purchase since a lap top when they first came out!
Back to Ariana. This is an exciting time to buy imo as the Co. re-establishes its exploration and development strategy. Kerim turned $35000 into $3.5m (figures correct?) with a lithium investment a few years back. He now has the focus to do something much bigger. But I'm excited about Tavsan, Salinbas, Hizarliyayla ,Cyprus , the Western Tethyan Resources and of course the improving grades being unearthed around the Kiziltepe vein structures. Lots of value to be added. You can hardly say we are overvalued with half our current valuation in hard cash.
We crossed John. Fun that. Anyway Peter you have been given the answer twice! I agree with John that it is normal for the M.M.'s to drop the value of the share on the ex dividend date by an amount commensurate with the amount being paid out. That makes obvious sense. But sometimes it can be more and sometimes less. And of course sometimes that value can be recovered quickly whereas sometimes it can take ages. I hold a number of "yielders" and they tend to recover reasonably soon in a bullish market as investors will be buying in for the next dividend and taking advantage of the drop in price. Not a precise science. The trick is to find a solid stock and hold onto it. A stock which is profitable, (not just EBITDA) has cash, and positive cashflow, has top class proven (honest) management and , potential to expand, reasonable operating jurisdictions, some diversification, good margins (low operating costs) low discovery costs, is environmentally, community and socially switched on, has a good safety record, doesn't have too many shares in issue, not too many warrants, no outstanding legal cases, and is under the radar. Ariana does pretty well on that tick list imo. AAU also has two very strong partners and now has income & growth potential.
Peter: You will get the dividend (s) as long as you hold the shares on the Ex Dividend date. The Co. has yet to announce these, but we should get the 1st tranche payment dates (Ex dividend, Register Date and Pay date) fairly soon, given it will be paid this quarter. That is 0.35p. I think it has been suggested it could even be paid in August. Well done with your buy in timing. I think you will do well in terms of growth & income.
Hi John, Yes we are still here and Paul who also had a Pizza Express lunch with us is a poster on ADVFN. He's also a big supporter although not quite in the league of Steve Bingham who you will have seen in the Annual Report & Accounts now has 34m plus shares. He is also a favourite poster on ADVFN. Yes you are right about the 3 tranches for the special payout. I just don't see how they can really include the last one, as we will have to vote on that at the 2022 (2021 Accounts) next August.
But hey ho, we probably don't need to worry ourselves so much with the share price whilst we sit back and receive nice dividends. Drilling at Salinbas even Hizarliyayla (8 kms north of Hot Maden) and of course Cyprus could bring forward some nice surprises later this year. Of course the delayed E.I.A. for the second mine at Tavsan should also be an important milestone. So I remain very comfortable with my investment here both in terms of growth and now income. Kerim's Proactive article in February when he talked about "we are now planning to grow our market capitalisation another tenfold" will do me fine. He also said under next steps - to develop the company strategy to target a further ten fold multiplication in market capitalisation within the next decade. He said - "I see no obstacles to achieving our target by 2030 and I encourage our shareholders to support this vision". I just wish he would talk in these terms more often and to camera. It seems that it is the general excitement that is missing. Shareholders seem to read all the news and the detail but its almost as though they don't actually believe it. Well he got it to £50m and perhaps the journey to £500m will be easier and quicker. Keep paying healthy dividends and I'm very happy like Steve Bingham with his 34m shares to hang on firmly to Kerim's coat tails.
Well that's a taster: There are 36 Questions.
Q4: On page 4 of the A.R. & A. its says - "the Company plans to achieve its goals by:- But as far as I can see the goals are stated? Furthermore many of the strategies listed are motherhood statements applicable to any mining Co. and add no insight into more relevant actions. On 18th Feb. Kerim did a Proactive Investor article where he said "we are now planning to grow our market capitalisation another tenfold". That is a laudable, tangible, quantifiable vision (goal) and surely should be restated in these A.R. & A's. In that article he also said appropriately, under "next steps" - to develop the company strategy to target a further ten fold multiplication in market capitalisation within the next decade". "I now see no obstacles to achieving our target by 2030 and I encourage our shareholders to support this vision". Great stuff. But why not in the A.R. & A's?? He even set out business strategies, not the motherhood ones. Like a) increase gold production to 50,000 ozs b) Tavsan development c) Salinbas d) other jurisdictions - new project opportunities. Surely this is a missed opportunity to start to build the exciting story of the next ten bagger?
Page 4 provides a suitably high-level window into the Company strategy for shareholders. The statements concerning the strategy are absolutely core to our business and it is doubtful if we would have been able to advance the Company in the manner we have if we had not been paying close attention to these points at every stage. They are not “motherhood statements”, and each one represents a springboard to actionable and actioned areas of the Company strategy. The Annual Report represents a record of performance over a period in time and is not specifically designed to address the matters raised by this question. There is a place for more aspirational statements (and a Proactive interview is one such place) but the Annual Report is not appropriate as it must report verifiable and auditable facts.
Q5: I think Kerim will admit he has been wrong footed by the E.I.A. application for Tavsan. The E.I. A. and mining start date have been delayed by years. Recently Kerim was predicting the E.I.A. by end 2020 and then end Q1 - 2021. Shareholders haven't been told what the real problems have been. Is it possible for Kerim to provide greater reassurances about the way forward for Tavsan?
This is incorrect. We have stated verbally in interviews a number of times that we have experienced delays associated with the EIA and other permitting matters during the past 16 months primarily as a result of the difficulties caused by COVID. Government departments and associated organisations have not been functioning in quiet the same way as normal. We are at least a year behind schedule at Tavsan as a result.
Hi John
Have you listen to yesterday's Presentation and the Q & A. This will tell you that they only had authority to return a dividend of up to c. £7.5m at this time. Personally I don't think they should count the 3dt tranche as this is subject to a vote at the August 2022 AGM. Taking the mick in my book. So I would call it 0.35p + 0.175p = 0.525p
You will need to log into InvestorMeetCo. to listen to the 1 hour webinar. Definitely worth it with new slides etc.
Here's the Q&A, for anyone that can't get in to the website it's on. A few of the questions have audio answers which won't show up here.
Q1: Will the company implement a share consolidation of 10:1 (as Mariana Resources achieved) or at the very least 5:1 This so that the number of shares in circulation appears realistic and attractive to new or prospective investors, as well as adding long overdue upwards pressure on the share price.
This is a matter that is under review but a share consolidation is by no means a priority for the Company at this time. If we do conduct a consolidation in the future, it will be in parallel with a major strategic development.
Q2: Can you let us know whether Ariana are considering any form of share buy back given the revenue from the JV deal and ongoing mine production at Kize - many thanks
A special resolution has been proposed for the 2020 AGM which would enable the Company to purchase up to 5% of its shares. This primarily enables the Company to purchase shares from its employees, should they wish to sell - otherwise it is difficult for our Turkish employees in particular to sell their shares. The provision is not designed for general buy-backs. We would prefer to deploy capital in other ways to promote the advancement of the business.
Q3: A lot of shareholders feel the PR from the company is somewhat lacking and does not do justice to the good work that is being done on the ground and that the share price suffers as a result - what do you say to that ?
In order to answer this question appropriately, we would like to understand what is meant by PR in this context? The Company has an excellent track-record of regularly publishing very detailed RNS announcements. We also regularly provide recorded interviews via Proactive and BRR Media, typically shortly after significant news or after clusters of news-flow. We also utilise social media on a very regular basis and have participated in investor forums (virtually and in-person) when appropriate to do so. Our use of this platform is a good example of that. We also employ an award-winning and top 3 PR agency to support these and other activities.
Q4: On page 4 of the A.R. & A. its says - "the Company plans to achieve its goals by:- But as far as I can see the goals are stated? Furthermore many of the strategies listed are motherhood statements applicable to any mining Co. and add no insight into more relevant actions. On 18th Feb. Kerim did a Proactive Investor article where he said "we a
ARIANA RESOURCES PLC will be holding a Final results for the year ended 31 December 2020 meeting on 20th Jul 2021 at 10:00am BST.
Should you have any questions, please contact investorhelp@investormeetcompany.com.
My post on the latests from Sandstorm Gold may also be of interest.
"I've just listened to some really interesting comments by Nolan Watson, CEO of Canadian (TSX) listed Sandstorm Gold (SAND).
As you may recall, Sandstorm bought into the World Class, high grade Hot Maden Copper and Gold deposit, which is just 8 kilometres south of our Hot Gold Corridor and in particular our asset known as Hizarliyayla.
Nolan was able to say that the Turkish Government had been in fairly strict Covid lockdown in 2021 and this had put permits back on Hot Maden a bit. The Hot Maden E.I.A. & F.S. have consequently slipped from the expected Q2 to Q3 2021 but he is now hearing that the Government is back in harness and permits are expected imminently, hence his Q3 expectation.
Furthermore he said that even though Hot Maden cost them 2 years or more ago c. $176m for a 30% stake and has since advanced considerably, he doesn't think the market has priced it in. In fact with the increase in Gold & Copper prices he says the project economics are now much stronger and that will be the same for us.
As such he believes the Hot Maden E.I.A. will be a huge catalyst for the share price and thinks investors and the market will be shocked it has moved forward so much.
I can see strong correlations here with Salinbas and Tavsan both in terms of their value not being recognised and the huge catalyst they represent for our share price.
Nolan also predicts copper prices will go much higher and Hot Maden is now 75% gold & 25% copper. He said in effect investors will be getting the gold for free. If they get their E.I.A. in Q3, he hopes they will start building the mine by the end of 2021. Perhaps Salinbas will take less time than we think.
Interestingly he also said that Environmental Permits in Turkey can present real challenges especially for large open pits in highly forested areas where they have to cut down large numbers of trees. However at Hot Maden this is not the case. Perhaps this is also the case for us in the Hot Gold Corridor due to the mountainous location?
My opinion is that the announcement of the Hot Maden E.I.A., hopefully during this quarter, will trigger significant investor interest in the region and have a strong positive knock on benefit for Ariana. We shall see".
Over on ADFVN they have found a site suggesting we should be valued at 23p. This was my response.
"Until we see in black & white the long promised Tavsan mine schedule and E.I.A. plus the revised resource estimation, plus the updated Salinbas E.I.A. scoping study and future outline plan etc. etc. I think it is impossible to get anywhere near a sensible valuation. Panmure Gordon, from what I recall still only have Salinbas valued at $14m. Although already 7 months out of date, last year's Annual Report & Accounts, when finally released may also provide some forward thinking value pointers.
Having said all that, given the hard cash in our balance sheet following the J.V. payment, current mine assets (Infrastructure etc.), stock piles, the various reserves/resources, the fact we are debt free, our investments (Venus Minerals etc.)and current & future cash flow (discounted as per Renninks Note), I think it must be pretty easy to arrive at a fairly solid valuation of circa £100m (10p per share)as per the Panmure Gordon assessment. Once all the Salinbas & Tavsan stuff starts to get taken account of, who knows what a sensible valuation could be. Certainly a lot more than 10p. I'm sure the Board realise this and are constantly carefully considering how to prioritise and drip feed progress to ensure a steady and stable accumulation of value.
I tend to agree that the Special Dividend could be the catalyst to announce accretive news to support the share price given the inherent dilutive impact and the desire to encourage investors to reinvest all or some of the proceeds. At least that is what I'm hoping for. I think it is interesting also that the Technicals are looking stronger and seem to be anticipating an ongoing increase in the share price".
This is the Sandstorm Gold CEO presentation from February. There are a few strong references to Hot Maden.
Possible EIA H1. Then feasibility and long mine life aspects of construction to commence possibly before Xmas. They are obviously pushing ahead ASAP. What will the knock on value be for Ariana with its Hot Gold Corridor assets starting 8 km north of Hot Maden? Very good presentation.
https://youtu.be/tqsGtPafsv8
Wow are they listening to us and providing RNS's when they probably aren't actually required too/Does this mean communication with shareholders is going to improve? I hope so.
I'm also of course delighted to read that Court Case One when according to plan.
Hi John
I was also disappointed not to hear anything about our next mine at Tavsan and the supposed elephant in the room, the Hot Gold Corridor and in particular Salinbas. In fact these two key strategic projects have only had one update and that was part of a production RNS back in January. And then they only warranted a one sentence mention. The E.I.A. for Tavsan is overdue (Kerim said early this year it would be complete by end of March) and if the delayed mine is still going to commence end of 2021, then we should be informed about progress on many fronts. Land acquisitions, Forestry permits, Strategic Investment status, final costings and CAPEX costs for Feasibility study, drilling to extend Resource/Reserve & Life of Mine, Mine construction & infrastructure, Environmental, community & social impacts including the E.I.A., Permits etc. etc. Originally I believe Tavsan was going live back in 2019, so there has been plenty of delay already. It just keeps slipping with no proper explanation. As you may recall, they dropped using a Gantt chart in their presentations showing all the projects, as they kept missing deadlines and said these were often not under their control! The Gantt chart was no doubt becoming a bit of a pain in their side. Salinbas was also supposed to have environmental community and permitting activities through the winter of 2020/2021 as well , but again not a dickie bird. It seems since the new Joint Venture has come into play, communication has fallen away badly. There appears to be an air of complacency. How come BRR didn't ask any of these questions. Was their research sub standard or did the Co. ask them not to ask any such questions. The Finals with Annual Report & Accounts should be completed soon. I suggest we use the online AGM as an opportunity to legitimately ask questions on all these issues. Ariana appears to need to up its game. This is going to be particularly important if they hope shareholders will reinvest all or part of their special payout back into Ariana shares. Perhaps they are going to make a special effect to communicate the new strategy and project progress ahead of the payout. We shall see. Disappointing is the current word in my book.
Wow what a strong start to webinar. Amazing. Can you find a better shareholder communicator.
Love this guy and love this Co.
Basel 111 comes in at the end of June for European banks, I believe . This appears pretty significant in many ways. As I understand the Banks will have their gold holdings audited prior to the implementation date. If they have shortfalls (heaven forbid) they will no doubt need to buy gold. The U.K. goes live 6 months later to give our Banks time to prepare, even though Basel 111 has already been delayed by quite some time. But it should be positive for Banks (if they hold physical gold) as the new rules will allow them to treat gold as a Tier one asset in their balance sheet. Currently gold is only valued at 50% of its value I believe which means the incentive to hold it is questionable. Now it’s Teir I, it will be treated as cash. Could this lead to them holding more?
hTTps://www.investing.com/analysis/basel-iii-could-be-golds-best-friend-200562335#:~:text=You%20see%20under%20Basel%20III,1%20ratio%20of%20physical%20gold.&text=The%20Royal%20Mint%20recorded%20an,over%2050%25%20in%20the%20UK.
I thought PALM look a good bet but I was put off by two things.
1. I listened to a presentation and wasn't impressed by Darren the CEO
2. Everything I believe is a long way out.
Ariana appears to me to have much more short term accretive potential. But maybe I'm wrong.