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Moorlander30 The shaft refurb work is going on out of sight hundreds of metres down.

If the fall in stock levels at LME continues at the recent rate for a few more days, I expect the tin price will head much higher............................

Which will be good news for financing, and for replacing debt or equity with off take agreements, or bringing the cost of debt down as risk reduces.

3,690 tonnes only on 21/2/25

Another drop in tin stocks in London...................................now only 3,800 tonnes

The tin price surge is going to be helpful in the debt provision talks as of course will the addition of the National Wealth Fund to the strategic investors. At a tin price of $33,150/T i.e. 10% above the PEA assumption, the NPV of just the first 14 years of the SC project rises about 30% to $261m.

If the project critical path timeline can be reduced, the NPV will likely rise further. The recent fund raise will enable the company to place the orders for the long lead items and make a start on the foundations for the processing facility.

All encouraging stuff.

David , even better $ 239.5m ...........................

Gingy. It is because there has just been a placing which due to a big company effort to look after small shareholders has involved the vast majority of them. So practically everyone who is familiar with the company has been offered more shares. That is why the share price is weak. Generally speaking just after share issues can be a good time to buy as supply has exceeds demand for a short while. The fact that the placing was done at a small discount to the then share price is a reflection of the offer being well received. Another factor to consider is that now the company has a bigger market cap, it will come onto the radar of larger scale investors. The shares continue to be tightly held so if good news continues to come through the share price will eventually react.

CUSN will be raising debt finance over the next few months.

It is therefore fortunate that

1. Interest rates have been cut and are expected to fall further

2. The stock of tin at the LME has recently fallen below 4,000 tonnes- only about 1% of annual world demand

3.The price of tin is rising and on Friday closed about 3% above the CUSN 2025 PEA level

4. CUSN now has two major shareholders who are long term backers of the company - VBR and the NWF. i.e. secure "muscular "backers with deep pockets.

These developments are likely to make the provision of debt finance far less risky for the provider, which means a lower finance cost to CUSN., leaving more in the pot for shareholders.

David Roberts

Re your posting of the Edison report on Alphamin I was struck by the two paragraphs:-

---------------------------------------------

"Entry into the Democratic Republic of the Congo was via Goma (population circa two million)

on the northern shore of Lake Kivu in the North Kivu province. Contrary to the image often

portrayed in mainstream media, Goma gave the impression of being a vibrant and busy city

and not at all a war-torn ruin on the frontline of a civil war at the mercy of various foreign-

backed rebel militias. While there was a noticeable army and UN presence near the airport,

there was no visible tension. Street markets appeared busy and there was little or no sense of

any disruption to civil society.

 The journey out to the mine was undertaken by a c 45-minute flight by light aircraft and the

major impression was the unbroken canopy of rainforest and of the remoteness of the mine site

relative to any population centres. The aircraft landed at Alphamin’s own purpose-built airstrip

at Bisie a short (c 25 minute) drive to the mine. Security on the drive was provided, although

there was little explicit evidence that it was necessary. With the exception of a handful of local

pedestrians, no other users of either the airstrip or the road to the mine were observed."

----------------------------------------------------

I wonder what the situation is now? Flying in from Goma is probably not now possible?

Do you think the rebels have access to helicopters?

David Roberts

Thanks for posting the link. I note the Alphamin share price has fallen sharply since the note was published which I guess is due to the war in Eastern DRC. I wondered if the Bisie mine is having trouble getting production out and to market? Given Bisie accounts for around 7% of global tin supply, I don't know, but this may be the reason tin markets are tight at the moment.

Interesting to see the LME stock levels falling from 8000 tonnes just over a year ago to around 4000 tonnes now. You may be right about the start of a squeeze. What is the latest about Alphamin?

David Roberts Yes it is an approx three times multiplier.

The tin price appears to have now moved above the price assumed in the 2024 PEA.

Many thanks Pawgee for posting the article - an interesting overview.

Https://www.mining.com/china-hits-back-at-us-tariffs-with-mineral-export-curbs/

David

Thanks for the link. The paywall intervenes. Can you summarise what it says for us? Many thanks Vii

In the Telegraph today

"Andrew Bailey, the Governor, and his fellow interest rate-setters are expected to cut borrowing costs on Thursday, taking the base rate to 4.5pc, down from last year’s peak of 5.25pc. Much will hinge on whether or not the Monetary Policy Committee indicates significantly more rate cuts are on the way.

Financial markets – on which the OBR bases its forecasts – expect the base rate to get to 4pc then stay there or perhaps at 3.75pc for years to come."

Anything which cuts the cost of capital for CUSN will make the South Crofty project more attractive/ give bigger returns.

Good morning Propinquity

The UK seems to be moving. UKIB now the UK wealth fund, has funded three companies in the area so far.

Cornish Lithium, Invinity and just a week ago, Cornish Metals. i.e. Lithium, Vanadium flow batteries and Tin.

I would not be surprised to see further investments in critical areas , tungsten (TUN), and rare earths (PRE) being a couple of possibilities.

Critical metals/ rare earths are moving centre stage in the trade war between the US and China. Support to provide production/resilience is now a growing priority for Governments in the West. UKWF in for the long run.

Critical metals/ rare earths are moving centre stage in the trade war between the US and China. Funding to provide production/resilience is now a growing priority for Governments in the West.

Critical metals/ rare earths are moving centre stage in the trade war between the US and China. Funding to provide production/resilience is now a growing priority for Governments in the West.