Member Info for Valuation-it-is

Critical metals/ rare earths are moving centre stage in the trade war between the US and China. Funding to provide production/resilience is now a growing priority for Governments in the West.

Perhaps the lack of comms is due to being closed / in the middle of a fund raise negotiations.

Has CUSN scooped the financing pool before First Tin? Will CUSN be first to market with its tin concentrate?

Or will demand for tin be so much enlarged by the time of production that there will be room for both - and others- to sell their supply?

Thanks for posting your work. I agree with your analysis about the key sensitivity to the tin price and time delays which are frustrating, but perhaps should not have been a surprise. I do think you have valued CUSN as if it is just the about the PEA of the proven resource in the SC project when there is a lot more in CUSN than that. Whilst the drill results of South of Carn Brea did not provide any major boost to the overall valuation but the jury is still out until the company gets underground. Otherwise and importantly there are major areas which hold great promise to add to the CUSN valuation which I do not think you have considered- both East and West of the Great Crosscourse which may add 20m tonnes of ore or more to the mine. Then there is potential at United Downs and Gwinnear.

Thinking about the outlook for tin, demand looks set to rise because of the world's electrification drive. Demand for solder and for battery terminals looks set to increase - perhaps sharply and given tin demand's price inelasticity, the tin price could double or triple. A 1 percent rise in the price of tin adds around 3% to the npv of the immediate project so clearly a significant rise in the tin price would make CUSN worth many multiples of that. So I think the potential is not just a 2x multiplier, which I agree would not be very attractive from a risk reward point of view, but a 6 to 10 times multiplier if the tin price does what I expect.

Apart from on-going problems in Myanmar and Indonesia, there is the threat to 5-7 % of the world's tin supply from DRC. But those are short term considerations. The longer term potential for a supply shortage is driven by electrification. Offsetting my bullish view, is the potential - rising at the moment, for a global recession caused by a Trade/tariff war.

Time will tell. Thanks again for your analysis.

Late 2027.

John Flint, CEO of the National Wealth Fund, commented “Critical minerals are not only an important driver of the UK’s transition to net zero, but also of the UK’s growth mission, providing opportunities to anchor important supply chains in the UK.”

The last part i.e. "...providing opportunities to anchor important supply chains in the UK" suggests that NWF would like to see smelting done in the UK - otherwise the supply chain, clearly will not be "anchored" here.

The obvious problem with that is the cost of energy in the UK. Perhaps NWF/ MrFlint can help?

Yes, but it is hardly worth the hassle. The trading listing shows masses of buys at the mo........................

Gingy

Existing shareholders will be trying to take part in the placing at 8p. Only new shareholders will be buying in the market, so those with knowledge of the company are going for the placing and are out of the market at the moment. The amount of stock in the placing is limited so if demand is not satisfied it may return to the market shortly. The various brokers valuations are way above the current share price.

Probably worth ringing to cut through ....................

Tortoise123 Why not contact IR at the company?

I think the two key shareholders are going to hold this through to production and beyond. Also that they will back any further capital required. However little, if any, equity will now be needed. Debt finance will provide the major part now, with perhaps plant leasing and off take agreements.

The market may start to consider the opportunities beyond the immediate South Crofty project. United Downs and Gwinnear may come back into the picture. Other exploration companies may look to CUSN for processing. South Crofty is just the start - and a cracking good one too.

Good thinking. Perhaps NWF will have another tie up with TechMet and EMG....................................

Good morning Prop, Iam wondering where NWF will invest next.

Its equity deals so far:-

Cornish Lithium

Invinity (Vanadium flow batteries) and yesterday

Cornish Metals.

The NWF Cornish investments in tin and lithium suggest to me that tungsten might be next in the frame. Then we need a smelter.....

Https://www.nationalwealthfund.org.uk/news/national-wealth-fund-drives-growth-ps286m-investment-cornish-metals-inc-facilitating-domestic

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/28/reevess-growth-fund-backs-cornish-tin-mine-race-net-zero/

Https://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/24891735.cornish-tin-mine-south-crofty-bid-56-million-boost/

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjr85edxj24o

For the avoidance of doubt the last message was

SP as in Smart Punter That is what comes next.

Sp That is what comes next.

Pawgee. As it is much cheaper and quicker to drill from underground rather than the surface, I think they are likely to do most work on expanding resources when they can get underground after de-watering. They have shown its economically attractive without having to drill more, so I guess they will try to minimise cash outflow.

The RNS stated:-"The proceeds of the Fundraising will be principally used to ensure that the Company can continue with its path to development through competing the shaft refurbishment and de-watering process, the start of early project works, ordering long lead items and completion of the project finance process and up to the point of the formal final investment decision at its South Crofty Tin Mine."