Member Info for usually_right

Boohoo model is different to regular online retailers in a few ways. It's not design and market. It's really the other way around.

Journalists have relationships with sources. Often they may not know the real source of any information but sometimes they will work with sources in a I'll scratch your back you scratch mine way. 20 years ago I use to provide analysis online for UK companies, mostly small caps so I know how things operate. It may well be that the story ended up being pushed by the source to get it out on the pre bank holiday friday afternoon. The low volume often seen on a pre bank holiday friday afternoon causes maximum damage and it secures a poor weekly close - an important technical indicator.
As I have said before the sweatshop issue just needs to be dealt with head on, which they are doing, but this also requires time in order to do it properly. In the meantime they continue to work their business model very well, the quick product turnaround and especially the social media aspect which really can't be overstated. It's a unique model. The fact that inflation is working its why into everyday life means they can add 50p to a pound on garments and not ruffle any feathers. It's the perfect time to dot the i's and cross the t's in terms of the supplier issues, which is what I expect will happen. But again we will need to wait another month. You have to be seen to do things in the correct manner. If so, the results will speak for themselves.

if price can hold above this 200 day moving average into the close, it's a positive signal for the next few trading days - often crossing this average to the upside induces buying.

the 200 dma by around 3 quid is the level to watch. if the shares settle above there then they will head to 350-360. they could then range between 300-360 before moving to 400 again. fundamentally they look good, but you cant see new highs until the overhang of the sweatshops is dealt with. it should however be a issue that can be dealt with and i expect it will be, but it will take another month or so, as they have indicated.

B&M are doing well and will continue to do well especially as wallets begin tightening. However, the shares imo are expensive here. Certainly one to pick up on a correction. 3i's Action ( a bit like a european version of wilkos) is another one that will do well, as you'd expect of Boohoo and ABF (Primark). 3i might be a little pricy here as well and may be worth waiting for a dip, but the latter two look reasonable at todays prices.

Whatever you think about the chances of survival, without doubt things are taking longer to get towards the new normal, so the road to positive cashflow is being pushed further out. This will exert pressure on the shares near term. Given the 73% capital to debt ratio, any delays to a return to positive cashflow are markedly reflected in the share price.

My view on these kinds of assets is that at present book values nothing can be done to turn things around and make them commercially viable in many cases. Once they have been marked down enough, I expect PE to come in and convert some of the properties into other use such as flats or warehouses. But at present the value paid and book value doesn't allow the present owners to do this. It's possible it make take more than one administration for this to happen. I underline it's not a certainty but a possibility.

I warned about this yesterday - massive dilution unless folks take up the offer and commit large capital that they may prefer not to at this stage. On top of this selling the money making part of the business just means that cashflow will be even worse going forward and that balance sheet, although stronger, will be under greater pressure than before the sale, given the reduced inflows. The question is with rents going forward and the commercial viability of the assets that are left. Is it worth throwing good money after bad.

if its tomorrow then before the market opens around 7am i would expect

Either way and whatever you may feel about online/staying in, the fact that Disney is doing this is certainly not good news. Think about the thought process behind the decision and what that says about the near term propects for cinema going, which ultimately lead to them taking such a decision.

NAV for end 2020 is set to be 112p, while gearing 3.5%, so a strong balance sheet compared to sector average in particularly. technically, the gap to 117p has been filled but a close below 117 would suggest a return to 100p. otherwise, 130p is a possible target in the next couple of months if 117p holds.

they missed. plus the positives they pointed to underlined the near term risks they face. if you can see through the virus, they will be ok, but until then it may be rough waters.

It is the US but not in the way you suggested. While S&N said that it had seen an increase in activity in US China and Europe towards the end of the period, the fact that the US seems to be stalling right now and so will act as a headwind for its performance there. Add in second wave risks in UK and Europe and it means that the recovery maybe be set back a further few months. This translates into short term share price weakness, but one can argue that such weakness can be bought into if looking out on an 18 month time horizon. Right now, not sure that all near term risks have been priced in fully as we really don't know how much of a drag the next few months will be.

Clearly near term ability to build is going to be affected by covid second wave, so short term may be some troubles. But further out, the order book is stronger than last year so for now one can look ahead with some certainty. The only issue here would be if the order book gets dragged down by an ongoing covid problem. That shouldn't be the base case right now however, so I'd assume weakness to 100-120 would prove profitable on an 18 month time horizon.

second wave fears spreading, what with the US struggling and also outbreaks in Europe, just as cinemas are supposed to be reopening. its a repricing of how long the virus is going to have a material effect on businesses.

theres amonth til results and another month til the result of the internal investigation is expected. in that time if conditions are right, the sahres could hit sup zones by 177-185 and even 130-145. its possible but of course not certain.

last year, 2019, it was 1.6%. it was it the most recent update of group performance. sp is being affected by nagative sentiment from leicester issue. once that is sorted, there will be no problem. until then the shares may be vulnerable.

https://www.shortdata.co.uk/

its you that is misleading! its a downgrade to neutral. they cut FROM 440 TO 250.

suggest a proper news feed as this downgrade happened earlier than that time stamp. reuters has it well before market open.