Member Info for Urraca

Is there a further delay looming?

Nxtvyear is close now. If OPEC and NOPEC make good on their cuts, I expect to see inventories falling week after week (although maybe not according to API). That will keep a solid base under oil price. So long as there are no further delays with FPF1, we will rerate as our production rerates. Maybe we should ask for a monthly production report - didn't EXI used to do that? it would be excellent news if they use this delay to hook FPF1 up to the pipeline too and we can ramp up to full production without any further fannying about. Is that too much to hope for?

Saw a tweet a few minutes ago saying wounded rebs have started to be evacuated. Fingers crossed. I agree Russians or Chinese might buy this co. They don't care about Eau sanctions. I mean, what would the EU do if Russia started pumping oil from block 26? Refuse to buy russian gas next winter?

Hi onewife. The Syrians were saying yesterday that the civilians didn't need to be evacuated. If the fighting troops leave, and the battle is over, they are not in danger. If they consider themselves part of the opposition to Assad, then I guess thy will want to go. As far as getting on the buses, just they're bound to be concerned. But rebels have been transported to Ibdid before, without harm. Assad needs to do this, otherwise the country will descend into worse chaos. He's not strong enough, even with Russia and Iran, to hold all of Syria down by force. Far too many weapons knocking about. And I presonally believe that Saudi and Iran want to move on from their proxy wars - Russia definately wants them to, as shown by the OPEC deal, which Putin brokered. They have all been hurt by low pil prices, sanctions in Iran too. They face political problems on their home turf if they don't maintain oil at a higher price. On EU sanctions, its the only leverage the EU have on the situation. They were introduced to undermine Assad and lead to his downfall. Miliband leading the vote to stop UK intervention, which prompted Obama's decision not to do anything much, and the usual EU indecision, means the sanctions were pretty much all we did. Okay, a bit of covert aid to the rebs. And we have utterly failed in getting rid of Assad. Now we need to be realistic, and the refugee crisis is politically top of the agenda in the EU. Stabilising the situation should be paramount. EU, in concert with America, Russia, Saudi and Iran should all be pressing for a federal constitution in Syria, allowing rebels and Kurds some self determination in their respective territories, in return for joining together against the shared enemy which is ISIS. This could all happen pretty quickly once lame duck Obama goes and Trump becomes Pres. Give it a couple of months.

If the reciprocal arrangement to let rebels leave Aleppo peacefully is matched by the rebels allowing beseiged govt forces elsewhere to leave peacefully, we have the basis for grown up conflict resolution established. I believe this is Putin's goal here. What Assad wants doesn't count any more. A federal Syrian, united to fight a common enemy, ISIS, is in the offing.

Yes it's weird Crock o', way way more buys than sells. But MMs refusing large buy orders so not shifting a large sale. Aleppo wasn't retaken during the day, so maybe that had something to do with it. Or perhaps there's a placing coming, and they figure they can balance their books that way. But they didn't manage to shake out many sellers by dropping the price. What do you make of it?

It's a gracious end. Bit alarming that Syrians are saying the rebels will be escorted to north west syria and encouraged to go to Turkey and EU as refugees. Given that they include al quieda and head choppy offy loons, that is not what we want.

I saw a rumour this morning that the remaining rebels were trying yo negotiate safe passage out for civilians and them, leaving weapons behind. AlZinki (rebs) have announced that they're reached agreement in the last hour. So, surrender.

Some delayed trades which were counted as sells were clearly buys, so I make it almost 3m buys today, and well under a mill sells. And they're not clearing a big sell in the background because I repeatedly tried big dummy buys, and was refused. Guess if the last holdout in Aleppo falls overnight, this'll gap up in the morning. If they're still holding, more of the same.

But refusing buy orders on quote and deal basis

Offshore is right. 20p when Aleppo falls (decisive for civil war) 30p when civil war basically wraps (its bound to drag on for years in the deep desert), 40p when EU lifts sanctions, 50p when we start pumping block 26 again. Rough figures obviously.

Dunno. £300m would be 57.5p per share. TBH I'd take that right now.

Cool, thanks for that

Any idea what the next resistance is goodshare?

Rebels surrendering in the countryside around Damascus, Syrian army rolling into Palmyra, rebels falling out with each other n their last stronghold in Aleppo. Looks like today could be a decisive day in the Syrian civil war.

Hard to tell what sp will do, but assuming the last rebel holdout in Aleppo falls today, that should cause a surge. I'm surprised they held out overnight, but I guess the prospect of summary execution is going to make you fight to the last.

Align research think assets worth more than market cap http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/gulfsands-petroleum/gulfsands-petroleum-establishing-fair-value-in-a-post-syrian-conflict-environment/ Looks like Aleppo battle is pretty much done.

Thought I'd have a dig into this. From the financial statement one year ago, they reported 3,804,998 barrels pumped through 2014, and 2015. About two thirds in 2014, one third 2015. Oil price was around $100 a barrel through the first half of 2014, before plunging, so I'm simply going to make an assumption of $15 rev per barrel. This gives $57m. Half goes to Sinochem, so $28.5m due to GPX. Around £23m, about 5.5p per share.

Hi Dawn Riser. There has no, so far as I'm aware, been any real fighting around the block 26 area, and it kept on producing for a while into the war. Hence the back payments due, as GPX couldn't take them without breaching sanctions. The company says the facility has been maintained, and will be able to pump "within weeks". As for the EU, their actions have been a disgrace, and a total failure. But that's never stopped them pressing on in the past has it? The game changer for the EU will be when Trump becomes Pres, sometime in Jan. I have also e-mailed all MEPs of whom I'm a constituent, urging them to lobby the EU to stop this now. Text below, please do lobby your own MEPs: With Aleppo about to fall, it seems clear that Assad has won, with Russian backing. Whatever we may think about this, it is time now to alleviate the suffering of normal Syrians, and help address the refugee crisis. I was appalled to read this article in The Independent. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-syrian-war-us-eu-sanctions-bashar-al-assad-patrick-cockburn-a7350751.html Please give me your honest assurance that you will do all you can to get the EU sanctions lifted immediately. Many thanks

Block 26 alone is worth 16p a share, they are owed tens of millions of dollars from when it was pumping, which they'll get when EU lifts it sanctions, and they'll be producing within weeks of peace generating an income of around $30m a year, against a backdrop of oil prices rising for the next couple of years.