Member Info for Urraca

The Delek deal for Ithaca values Ithaca at $1.2bn (enterprize value including their large debt). So, a little more than twice our market cap. If Faroe can hit its aspiration of producing 40-50k boepd with five years, this makes the company a better long term prospect than Ithaca, which will have fairly steep field decline in Stella (although there is acquisition potential in the GSA). I have long though Ithaca and Faroe would fit well together. I think Delek think so too, and in my opinion I think there is an extremely high chance that they will take Faroe over, this year. Because we have cash and no debt, I don't think they'll be able to pull off the sort of low ball bid they managed with Ithaca. I have a fairly large stake here, and I'm going to keep building it.

Where in the news, and what did it say, give us a clue please? On the face of it that wasn't a great update with forecast prodn guidance down around 20% and unit cost up as a result. But the sp did not drop. Reminds me of Ithaca announcing further delays to FPF1 and the sp not moving. If Delek move, I predict a £1.34 offer, given they're tight fisted bastards.

Hi Toze. FPM are a bit tight lipped compared to some other oil cos. Current production is around 17-18,000 boepd. Check out the investor briefcase section on their website, they have a corporate presentation uploaded just this week. They haven't guided on forecast prodn for this year yet. I did think we'd get an ops update this week, but it appears not.

It's that time of year, and the corporate update Feb 17 is now up on their website. £100m cash, no debt. Not clear on prodn guidance for 2017, at least in line with previously stated 17-18k boepd, some uplift possible from Brage and Tambar. Still talking of 40-50boepd in five years, generating $1bn, presumably annually. Solid stuff, lots of activity planned.

This deal wasn't cooked up in a day. They probably started discussions back in November, when sp was in the 80s and this looked like a 50% premium. Insts have caught wind of it, hence why no dip whatsoever on the last announcement of further delays. But it still sucks.

With the Chrysaor purchase of Shell assets in the North Sea last week, and now the Ithaca takeover, this could be the start of a wave of M&A in the patch. Delek may already be conducting takeover negotiations with Faroe, as they've already got a stake.

I was expecting £1.20 on first oil from Stella, and £1.40 in March when the production had ramped up a bit. So quite disappointed with this low offer. But, I've made good money here, and the Board are recommended it, so I've sold up and gone to Faroe. Seems to me if Delek want that similarly cheaply they need to move quick now. Always thought Faroe and Ithaca would fit well together, but it never crossed my mind that would be as a part of Delek. Anyway, good luck chaps, and hope to see some of you over on the FPM board soon. Remember, they've got no debt to speak of, so their sp should be hogher to match Ithaca's enterprise value.

That was a bit of a bolt from the blue. Pile into Faroe then?

The Telegraph have been pushing this line that oil is dead and renewables will power the world within a few short years for longer than their forecast horizon. And Anatole Kaletsky was pushing it in the Times over a decade ago (quoting the 'stone age didn't end because they ran out of stones' line). It simply isn't true, and I think it is all part of the denial of reality which seems to permeate the liberal left elite thinking on a range of issues. Something to do with the stagnation of developed economies I think. China, India, large parts of Africa and Latin America are still developing rapidly, playing catch up with the first world. First world economies were built on fossil fuels, and still absolutely dependent on them, although we are weaning ourselves off slowly. All projections of developing economies consumption of fossil fuel show it rising, not falling. The recent BP projection reassured me that there is plenty of oil to see my kids through their lives (they are young), and probably grandkids too. Oil is not dead, nor will it be in my lifetime. Having said that, gas is a good hedge, as we increasingly turn to that for less polluting energy generation.

Doesn't Sir Cliff usevalmost as much fossil fuel as Al Gore? So, a globally significant consumer. Don't know the detail of the Iranian sanctions, but BBC suggests they've caused a rise in oil price. There seem to be some big sells after the bell. If there's another RNS about more delay on Monday, I will chew the carpet.

We don't really get trolls here do we? I know Easy Brent popped up, but for one day only, and to be fair to him he talks a deal of sense. Sadly he has to lard it with unpleasantness and sometimes personal abuse. I sometimes check out the CTAG board, just for a laugh. I'd never invest in it, but the hysterical ramping, trolling and abuse is amazing to see. I don't think I've seen a worse BB. This one is my fave I think, lots of good informed comentary. And slow steady sp increase.

Thanks for responses guys. I'd missed the Cannacord 1.10 target. I agree, brokers do always seem to be wrong, i was just interested. They don't seem to have factored in GSA, which feels weird as we're surely on the brink of it now (my BB style ramp for the month ;-) )

Foresight's observation that no analysts have a £2 price target for this reminded me that actually none of them have a price target above a quid do they? I haven't read any of the broker notes. Does anyone know why they value Ithaca as they do?

Bots, not bits, doh

Looks like the trading bits gambling like crazy on the EIA report to me

Been a nice steady rise since they announced the last small delay. Hope there's news next week.

Thanks b2d. Back to waiting. Can't be long now.

Supply vessels - or offtake tankers b2 duthie?

Pure luck. They must have marked it down sharply at open expecting a sell off. Which lets be honest could have happened. But I like a bit of volatility and not so good news for trading.

Got 10k at 95.88 in the first couple of minutes. Thanks MMs.