Member Info for Urraca

Rumours were right. Stella will start up in FebMarch did it say? Lol. Just a bit more patience.

I seem to remember rumours that Ithaca were going to announce an acquisition in the GSA before Stella got pumping, maybe back in October? Would be nice...

I think I read somewhere that the decline in deepwater extraction will be around 3m barrels a day in maybe around two years, and that in the main deep water projects have been shelved and of course have a very long lead time. But talking about right now, amd because I'm a bit bored, does anyone think there might be a sell on news effect when Ithaca finally announce Stella is producing? Or maybe brent will be back below $50 by the time they do? Opinions?

On marine traffic, doing the sift of vessels by destination FPF-1 only gives one supply vessel

Surprised to see so much selling today. Bots following Macquarie downgrade? There've been some chunky ordinary trade sales too. But I agree with Londoner 7 that we should see news sometime between now and the end of next week, whatever it is.

This UN resolution is very good news. 50p a share back pay is rubbish though. Thats £250m, $312.5m. Look back through GPX financial statements, they've been keeping a record of how many barrels have been pumped from blick 26. Around 3m I think. For GPX to get that sort of money they must have been selling each barrel for over $200. Through the worst oil price crash in decades? Keep your feet on the ground folks. They will get enough to get block 26 back up and running - if they get paid. Look at Genel, literally owed hundreds of millions. BTW, Genel operates just over the border from Syria. If the situation in the region is normalising, they could multibag very quickly. Sure they've had probs, but they're sitting on huge resources, and their sp is less than 10% what it was. I do have a stake in Genel, for transparancy.

Your input is appreciated BfromL. I must have missed the post speculating that FPF1 had started up. (Hope you don't now post a link to a post of mine speculating that :-) memory ain't what it was). Vlad is quite right to say that he has repeatedly pointed out that first oil into FPF1 will be the start of the production process which will take some months to be brought up to full operating capacity. But it does have to start up to begin the process, and that in itself will be a notable event.

Followthrough, you are making an assumption that the 52 week low reflected fair value for the company. I suggest that it could have reflected the company being hugely oversold in the general market hysteria as the oil price hit the bottom in its recent slump in price. If you look back to company valuation before the oil price crash, and simply adjust it by the fluctuation in the price of crude, you could get a more reasonable valuation. Although this ignores the company's hedging, which I find very attractive personally. Looking to the future, we are going to almost triple production, with an average cost I estimate of around $16pb, against a backdrop of strengthening oil price. Even if we only realise $56pb throughout 2017, and I hope that is very conservative, and average 22,500bpd, again, maybe conservative, we will be generating $900,000 cash after opex every day. Whilst we may have debt, that is a cashflow, next year, of more than half our current market cap.

This is one of the best boards. Mostyn, go and check out the Cloudtag board. Insane ramping, intense trolling. The company is clearly a piece of shite, but it amuses me to pop over for a laugh now and then. You'll come back thinking BB is a bit boring and conservative in his sane and well-balanced opinions.

We've had a big jump in the last 24 hours, but C$1.46 implied 88p. That would be a big retrace. It would take news of further delay to get us back to that I think. Maybe the rise yesterday was in anticipation of news today, and because nothing came it's been marked back hard. Market always over-reacts.

Let's see if the Turkey/Russia/Iran ceasefire and truce, with proposals for a political resolution to the Syrian war happens.

Please can we keep Enquest discussion on the Enquest board? I'm not invested in ENQ, and have no plans to be so. It's slightly disingenuous to say that ENQ currently pump 4x Ithaca, as we are eagerly awaiting a massive increase in our production volume.

Wow, that's a thumping big rise. Didn't that happen last just before they released news of the junction box delay? Sorry BB, I'm being the opposite of optimistic - guess that makes me 'little stool'?

I personally think that the sp rerate has been mainly due to the Opec/Nopec deal. It is broadly in line with the rerates of other oilies. After repeated delays I think the market is waiting until FPF1 is actually pumping before factoring it in. And I agree with Vlad that there will be several steps on the way. First prodn, hooking up to the pipeline, then ramping up to full prodn. Assuming Opec/Nopec hold the line, and I think Saudi will, then when Ithaca report on half year prodn and cashflow, Stella should be more or less fully priced in.

This one is all about timing your entry right, then patience to sit tight awaiting good news. Get that right and you should easily double your money.

Gotta be a Faroe Ithaca merger with Delek holding a 29.9% stake in Faraca

Goo luck getting home for Xmas Duthie

Looks like its consolidating here for now. A good bit lower than I thought it would, but still, well up from where its been. Lets see what happens next. I still think Russia wants this over, now they've asserted themselves, and that Saudi and Iran will come into line.

I too join in the thoughts and prayers for offshore workers. Hello Keith, welcome. If I've been rude about Canadians (okay, I have) it was honestly meant in jest, as banter. So please accept my apologies. I haven't contacted them about options - I don't think I was ever going to. The RNS says there are still almost 25 mil. I just hope the strike price is in increments which are all well north of £1 :-)

It may just be that the options have become exerciseable, or an sp threshold has been reached, but I prefer them exercising now, pre FPF1, than after Stella's producing.