Member Info for Urraca

53.693m trades off book today. Never seen anything like that before. If it's Delek buying, they must be around the threshold for a formal hostile takeover. If it's them selling, its almost their entire stake. The only other holding of comparable size is the mysterious 55.355 'other shares not held in public hands'.

That's very interesting PoD, i had not appreciated that FPM updated this info so regularly. The Delek increase isn't enough to soak up all the sells. And rading info show buys outstripping sells every day over the last five trading days, against a backdrop of slow fall in the sp. maybe PIs are picking up the slack. And the likes of JPMorgan are cutting exposure to oil. I'd have to trawl other oil cos, to see if they are doing the same elsewhere. But no time at the mo. Delek will swoop at the optimum time, as they see it. So they may hold to see if the OPEC deal collapses. Or they may take the view that the balance of risks lies on the supply side now. I was certanly surprised when their bid for IAE landed. Given that FPM have low prodn this year, because of workovers etc, I'm inclines to think that this year some time provides their best window. But its all guesses.

That's very interesting PoD, i had not appreciated that FPM updated this info so regularly. The Delek increase isn't enough to soak up all the sells. And rading info show buys outstripping sells every day over the last five trading days, against a backdrop of slow fall in the sp. maybe PIs are picking up the slack. And the likes of JPMorgan are cutting exposure to oil. I'd have to trawl other oil cos, to see if they are doing the same elsewhere. But no time at the mo. Delek will swoop at the optimum time, as they see it. So they may hold to see if the OPEC deal collapses. Or they may take the view that the balance of risks lies on the supply side now. I was certanly surprised when their bid for IAE landed. Given that FPM have low prodn this year, because of workovers etc, I'm inclines to think that this year some time provides their best window. But its all guesses.

Doing a very quick google search on FIL limited seems to suggest that they target merger/acquisition opportunitites. I don't have time this week to check if I'm reading this right. But the more illogically low the sp gets, the more I'm convinced Delek is behind it, trying to force reluctant big holders to capitulate to a not stellar offer. Let's be honest, they have enough firepower to keep this up for years. Big holders have patience too. It all depends what their internal forecasts on the future trajectory of the oil price are on whether they decide to sit Delek out I guess.

I bought more twice this week. Only a few thou, but the price can't be ignored. I'm actually hoping it stays down a while longer - I'll get more. It's going to go back over a quid sooner or later - a certain 25%.

Assuming FPM have now received the £7.4m ODa payment, which they said was expected by end June in the recent ops update, their cash in the bank will be over £121m. Or more than 40% of current market cap. I am expecting API and EIA to report further draws this week and going forward (could always be surprised though, uS is still importing a lot) with the market coming into balance slower than OPEC hoped, but nevertheless coming into balance. Be interesting to see if oil will go lower than the $44.8 low in late June in this latest plunge down. I'm not at all sure it will.

Not got that wrong. The big trade was from 6 July. Can't tell if it was a buy or a sell.

There was a colossal buy just after 4pm. Just shy of 700k shares. So that pretty much soaks up all the sells today. I did notice at least three sells of 84,132. And several 50k. With a big sell of almost 170k after hours. They might sum to the big buy - I wasn't watching all day and probably missed some. But it looks like a fairly large transfer going through the open market. Which is quite weird isn't it? I'm expecting another TR1 from Delek by and by.

Doublehead, I can well see anear 10 bag here. Not sure about 20, been signficant dilution. The question is - when. Russia and america are realists. Like him or loathe him, it's back to realpolitik with Trump. Angling for national advantage. Actually the way it should be, human history suggests. But the EU is still enmeshed in virtue signalling, even as its populace try to singal they've had enough. GPX needs EU sanctions lifted. And I fear that will be longer and more difficult than any rational analysis would suggest. I posted their their site. We can all see what the EU is demanding in Syria. Ridiculous imo - get real.

I'm interested in GPX, although not in at the moment. The steep rises seem to be getting smaller with each wave. The EU extended it's sanctions against Syria on 20 May, until 1 June next year, 2018. To lift them would take time - a bureaucratic process. And anyway, the situation has not yet reached their frankly ludicrous virtue signalling requirements. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/05/29-syria-sanctions/ But with the major players moving on this, there will come a time when the EU is being left behind, and looking ridiculous if it continues its sanctions. When that day comes, GPX will indeed be due an almighty rerate. But its not yet, and certainly not Monday. There may be an opportunity for a quick day trade for the nimble, although I think that happened on Thursday. If you decide to try it, be prepared to get stuck underwater until the next wave.

Must be the bots talking to one another in a numerical language. You'd need to decode the sequence. Lol, only kidding, there were a lot of very small algo trades today though. I think they largely cancel out in sum, while having a disproportinate impact on the share price. Only an opinion, I haven't ever attempted to do any number crunching to analyse this. Project idea for an economic paper, perhaps.

Great news. An the oil price has made strong gains since Friday close. I've been slightly baffled by the sp weakness, lets see if this can change the outlook.

And a share price of £1.50 would give a market cap of just under £550m, not £600m. Cash in the bank would represent one quarter of that. But I appreciate that our production levels - for this year - are below Ithaca's with Stella coming on-stream. Our production will ramp up quite significantly next year, as we are down for maintenance purposes. But good luck with getting in in the 70s, munch. Oil will have to have a further serious leg down to get you there I think.

Just to clarify, a market cap of $1bn would equate to a share price of £2.136 at the current exchange rate. It is slightly misleading to describe a share price of £1.50 as "almost" $1bn.

I'd like to know why the share price keeps falling even though buys are almost consistently far outweighing sells. Where are the shares coming from?

Sorry PoD, you're quite right. Just shy of 80m.

Hold 78.36% of the stock. Which leaves just under 8m shares in free float. You'd have thought the sp would be more stable really. Anyway, that's 63.26% held, disregarding Delek's stock, which is 74.5% of the remaining stock. I think, from the Ithaca takeover, Delek had to get acceptance from 75% of shareholders, excluding their stake. So if they can get the other major holders signed up, they would only need a very small proportion of the freefloat to swing it. Given FPM's massive cash balance, equivalent to almost 34p per share, one would imagine they would have to offer a pretty hefty premium to the current price. In these circumstances, and if Delek do indeed wish to make a bid for FPM, their best strategy at the moment would be to cntinue increasing their stake, slowly and carefully, at the current big discount they can get in the open market. Further TR1s will show if this is just speculation.

Private shareholders won't have any say http://www.fp.fo/investors/major-shareholders/ Just be glad for the crumbs

Some enormous trades after hours. I kind of wonder if Delek informally approached the board, got rebuffed, and have backed off and are selling down their stake. There seems to be strong buying, but against a backdrop of relentlessly falling price. Doesn't make sense.

With thanks to Cwmtawe on iii http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/5/4/faroe-petroleum-norge-granted-drilling-permit-for-well-317-2-s