Member Info for Urraca

Yes, looks like the sell on news crew are cashing in. Guess if they bought last week they'll have made a quick 10% or so. Still up on the day though, and the week. We're due two flow rate RNSs too, on top of 3 spuds and FY results.

Integrity? Looool. Where have you been living? Everything is corrupt to some extent - its how corrupt is it that matters. At least SDX have actual production and cashflow to back them up. But honestly, if the sp had been 70p today, after our run of successes, I'd have been disappointed. 50p is a joke.

And healthy buying. SD spud and FY results still to come this month. And LM spud? Not sure when that's planned for.

I get the feeling that there's a relatively small number of private investors with relatively large holdings by and large either sitting tight or trading a proportion. The price, and larger trades, are all institutions shuffling holdings between themselves, and at the moment, the buyer is setting the price. Hard headedly low. Probably completely wrong, but this is one of the most persistently weird shares I've been in.

Wow, a thousand fold increase in production? And I was only holding for a hundred bagger! Lol

Elooks like diminshing returns for Dan. He's probably desperate to get this back to his last buy in price -was it 84p?

Someone's going large. Staggering that it's not enough to move the price.

Being offered shares at 47.275, so I guess they're buys, and there's a sell order in the background maybe

160,000 at 47.25 time 8.56 too. Weird. No hint on whether they're buys or sells from the price, which hasn't moved.

Booom! Golden tickets. Ferraris. Wouldn't want to be out over the weekend. Etc etc. Haven't honestly seen any decent ramping here. Although an upward trend in the sp is usually a necessary pre condition, and this beggar hasn't even managed to flatline over the past year.

I think we all agreed that the Edison notes are based on assumptions that are so conservative they're pricing in the end of fossil fuel use and the globe being entirely powered by renewable energy. I acknowledge that Cantors dropped their price target from 84p to 64p. I am unsure whether this was based on a forecast price of $2.50 for SD gas. I don't believe I ever saw the note that may have accompanied the steep downward revision. In any event it seems doubtful that a price will be struck until after the SD campaign and assessment, when SDX will be able to tell the Govt how much they can supply. On timing, I'm hoping Rabul 5 results next week, spud at SD the week after, and FY results the week after again.

The well results have been in Morocco, where the price is significantly different from South Disouq, which is in Egypt. So I don't honestly think that holds much water. At least they are openly expressing what many shareholders feel, frustration that the market cap stubbornly refuses to recognise the successes and rapid growth potential here. I've said what I think, and anyone watching has seen the relentless selling. One day it will finish. Maybe it already has.

On Weds, Thurs, Friday last week there was a buy of over 70k shares. One each day. Looks like someone is slowly building a position, and trying not to send the price up.

'Robbery plain and simple'. Lol, good to see some fellow libertarians. The simple fact is that Egypt has three times the population of Morocco, and deep seated structural problems. They urgently need more cash than they can raise to keep food and energy prices low and stop their mostly very poor population starving/rebelling. That's why the Egyptian receivables have been an issue, they simply didn't have enough cash. However, they do realise that economic growth is the way forward, & that this needs lots of energy. They've got a big IMF loan, and I think the Saudis are supporting (buying loyalty). It's an interesting country, I lived there for a bit, but the baksheesh/kickback problem is absolutely endemic. It does seem to have copious amounts of previously untapped hydrocarbons though.

I forgot to say that although PW was managing expectations around reserves upgrade in Morocco, he did qualify that the report would only be based on the three successful drill up to the end of last year. So we already have two further successful drills, both of which I think have had flows exceeding those of the first three. He indicated around 10mmscfs for the recent SAH2 drill. And they will be included in a reserves upgrade that will come along hopefully a few months after the crrent Moroccan drilling campaign finishes. So it is very important to bear in mind that the reserves upgrade thats coming shortly will only include around half of what we've already hit in Morocco.

Isn't the thinking behind the 2-2.5tcf that Kelvin, and possibly Ibn Yunus too could all be part of a single connecting mega reservoir along with the structure that the SD1X drill hit last year? (Page 19 of Dec presentation). If the drills hit gas, but don't demonstrate that they're all connected, then 150bcf will have been proved up. Egypt holds the lure of another potential big strike in South Ramadan too. SQ I noticed PW managing expectations around the reserves upgrade too, as being offset by current depletion rates. Does anyone know if the $0.39 unit cost of producing gas in Morocco included the drilling cost to establish wells? Including a portion for dusters? I had assumed that they did. And I have been assuming that Morocco would produce enough revenue to cover the capital costs of further drilling campaigns to step up the production again, and that we're probably two or three years away from Morocco starting to throw off free cash flow. I'm more than happy for the company to reinvest profits to keep growing scale. If they can do this without placings and dilution, that's fantastic in my eyes.

At 10mscf (lets be modestly optimistic) $90k pd, and at 24mscf, with slightly better terms giving $10profit/mscf, $240k pd by end next year. Just from Morocco.

I know furey disagrees, but I personally think we are still clearing the overhang from the large placing at 30p just over a year ago to buy the Circle assets. Did Ingalls take 15mil at 30p, then offload around 5mil at an average of say 50p? That's half their investment recouped in a year, and they've still got tons. Bird in the hand and all that. But I don't think they'd sell down to 35p, not unless they were truly desperate for cash. I'm frustrated too, but this company is developing in stages. Sure the Circle assets were great, but they have to be monetised. And lets be honest we're doing a far better job of monetising than most AIM O&Gs. This years FY should be good , next years even better, etc. Having said all that I'm all for Directors getting a good horsewhipping now and then, to keep them on their toes. And I would dearly love to be at breakeven as I approach being invested here for a year.

So, that makes 5 strikes out of 7 drills in the current 9 drill campaign in Morocco. Plus two strikes in Rabul, so hopefully Rabul 5 has the CoS of a development drill. Fingers crossed the seller is done. Its been gruelling waiting for the overhang to clear.

A tweet by BMD. Which also said he'd bought 2500, presumably the 74.7 trade at 11.08. So he's already made a cool �250 in 90 minutes with a single tweet. Scary. Watch out for sales of 2500 blocks.