Member Info for Urraca

I see Tournesol over on a d v f n is back in and very positive. He sold out around a year ago I think, so he missed the grind, but he's also missed the start of the rerate. Hope he made money elsewhere in the meantime. The trouble for me now is, the onoy way I can get my average down is to sell some. And I don't want to do that. Should be a very interesting 12 months ahead as we bring discoveries online, and the income just keeps going up. Lots of good news to come.

Mk, I know Sound's mktcap is much larger than SDX's. This reflects the possibility that it may strike much greater reserves. And if it does, the rewards will be much greater too. It's beyond my own risk appetite, but I've made money on short term trades there, and was wondering if now is the time for another go. The massive CIP overhang worries me though.

Was it me that provoked this Moroccoknows? I simply asked what I felt was a pertinent question, as I was wondering whether to invest in Sou again. It met mainly with a frosty silence, rather than any explanation that my assumptions were incrrect. It's not sensible to get emotionally attached to a share. Especially when it's on the slippery slope. Believe me, I learnt that lesson the hard way, several times over.

We will be the lucky beggars here when news drops and the market realises the potential. Mkt cap of �1.3m at the moment. Clear multi-bag potential. I personally have found BMDs tips to be good. He doesn't know when news will come, but he watches for indicators, and he has a good nose for prospects. I 've missed out on signifcant gains before by selling too early on his tips, so I'm prepared to wait for this one to come through.

Quick and dirty feedback. PW ran through the presentation released yesterday. The one thing I had'nt quite grasped from reading it was the importance of the final 2 exploration drills in Morocco. PW gave an estimated vale of $10m per bcf discovered, and suggested the development drills were bringing in around 1-2 bcf. LNB and LMS combined have around 15bcf on a Pmean estimate. That's a pile of money. Questions. I didn't make notes on all, but this is what I got. What is the % return on S Disouq sales? 26% of rev goes to SDX after all deductions. Assume around 50-60mmscf on start up, and we can run the figures. They don't hedge oil prices because they sell to the State, so its more difficult. Reserves upgrade when the drilling and testing is finished. Will only start assessing after the prog concludes, and because TSX listed, need 3rd party validation, so later in the year. I'm assuming Q4. Peugot contract. Relatively small volumes to start, 0.2mmscf a day. Future sales depend on how quickly they ramp up prodn, so out of SDX hands. But other customers too. Does netback increase on the same ratio as the scale shown, now Brent has outrun it? Yes, so we can make some assumptions. Morocco, are they going to change terms? (i remember someone posted an article in french suggesting this). PW met head of Morocco Govt biz development yesterday, and their policy is still to encourage increased internal energy production, so no. That's it, there was more of course, but that's the notes I took. Still a buy and hold for me.

Fantastic news. Not a week goes by, but .....etc

Good luck, Fellrunner

Thanks Mooncheese. I have been in Sou several times over the last couple of years, but not a LTH. It's obvious what I'm thinking about the new CIP arrangement, and yes, I'm thinking about a possible entry point. They may be derisking ahead of the drill -fair enough - but at some point they'll stop. Not quite there yet though, I think.

I got in touch with Ollie to ask for the dial in details. He said they'd be sent out at 7am tomorrow. Just like an RNS. (He didn't say the RNS bit).

I think the downward pressure is caused by people who got shares from CIP, and CIP themselves. They are all below the TR1 threshold (presumably). The total is just under 67.5m shares - they aren't going to dump them all, but some are surely being sold. The big question for me is, how much did the CIP investors pay per share? That might be a floor. Sorry if eveyone knows, I've been out of touch for a bit.

I can only assume they didn't even bother to read the AGM presentation issued today before making the most cursory upgrade to their analysis. Do people honestly get paid for producing this sort of rubbish? No wonder PW has started including his own NAV and ReNAV.

Thanks Cosmoss. I particularly liked page 31. Renav �1.46. Unrisked NAV �2.38. I get the feeling PW wants to get value realised. It would at least help avert low ball offers, although I'm not sure any of the really big holders would bite.

Gold Dust can see the future. It will close at 87p. One day. Soon.

No surprises. Cash coming in strongly to fund the development of the exploration successes. Most encouraging bit was that they have tirned the corner on stemming the decline in production, and it's now climbing strongly in April and May, with much more to come. Apologies for setting a hare running last night then logging off. I didn't see the follow up. By trouble makers I was referring to the Egyptian muslim brotherhood, not Palestinians. The Egyptian government took a very hard line against them.

It is possible that some are selling because of the trouble between Israel and Palestine. Egypt also has a border with Palestine, which I think is also fortifued because the Egyptians find them a bit troublesome. It's many years since I worked in Egypt, and they were a bit tired of the Palestinians even back then, so I think it's highly unlikely the trouble will spill over. The Egyptians take a very robust line with trouble makers. I see the sp finished over 75p in Canada. And my tingling spidey senses tell me news is incoming tomorrow. Mystic Urraca is never wrong. That's why I never usually predict news incoming.

Respect for admitting your error Canapa. Don't see that often on BBs.

When news comes, the market cap should go over �5m easy. It will validate the offer ALGW are making. Financial services companies make a bundle. If they can get this up and running the upside is massive. Little ramp there for Eddie. I'm just waiting on news.

Canapa, I very strongly suspect that you have SDX confused with SQZ (Serica Energy). I'd check which company you are holding. SQZ suffered a pretty steep drop immediately upon the reimposed US sanctions on Iran, and released an RNS last Tuesday saying they were assessing the implications for the Rhum field, which they co-own with the Iranian state oil company.

If you look at broadly comparable sector shares, HUR, JOG, PMO, FPM, you could argue that all we've seen has been part of a wider sector rerate. In which case it could be a pause for breathe, or just flagging enthusiasm. Plenty of news still to come here to give us a catalyst for another push higher.

For the avoidance of doubt, I meant my reserves of cash for trading are low. And not, SDX's reserves are low.