Member Info for Urraca

Graybird. I'm assuming that you will accept an answer from me rather than Dick. Brent is currently selling for $76. Off the top of my head I seem to recall seeing JOG estimating the costs of extraction as $35 pb. I'm assuming that may come down if reserves are increased, as capex gets spread over more barrels. But currently, $41pb.

Base estimate is 25m barrels, 4.5m is JOG's share. $184.5m. But you'd have to discount over field life to get an NPV. Let's halve it for a back of fag packet NPV, $92.25m, then exchange to £ at £1/$1.4, that gives an NPV for JOG of £66m.

Given that Ragnfrid is scheduled to take 81 days (in summer), and the West Phoenix needs to sail there, it does not seem possible that it could complete before the end of November, even if it set sail now. And it is still stationary at Guillemot. If it is still the first in the drill sequence, and Verbier comes after Pip and Bgfoot, I just don't see how it can happen this year. I do however think it is possible that Ragnfrid won't be first. But this is pure speculation. We should get an update when WP starts moving. The Verbier appraisal will happen, we're just not clear when.

Thanks Dick. I haven't read it all, but it says at the start it's based on info as at 5 June, so right at the start of the current guillemot drill, and, intriguingly, that there have not been any material changes since then. It does say somewhere on the hibiscus website that they expected the guillemot drill to take two months, so it should have been concluded around 7 August. It's definitely overrun, but who knows why. I did e-mail anasuria a while ago, but they have not bothered to respond. I don't know what's sparked the rally today, other than it was oversold, and summer is coming to an end, with traders arriving back at their desks.

Hoping to get some more of these, but I'm waiting on another holding to go up substantially, fingers crossed.

Still at guillemot
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:458810/mmsi:370506000/imo:8768294/vessel:WEST_PHOENIX

On the top risers board again today. And the herd don't seem to have clocked us yet. I think this moght go mental when news drops.

Well, Simple, have you ever wonder why even quite small insurance companies have such massive market caps, even though their balance sheets are indecipherable? It is because the world of insurance generates phenomenal cash flow. ALGW have identified a niche, already thriving in the USA, to make money from the insurance industry. And the insurance industry already have it priced in.

If ALGW 10 bagged tomorrow they still wouldn't even register as an ameoba in the insurance world, far less a minnow.

But...they have still to announce a contract, to prove proof of concept, or that they can monetise this outside of the USA. Once, and if, such news is announced, the micro-cap valuation here will look ridiculous. I urge you to do some research on their business proposal and offer. It sounds good to me, but DYOR. Quick though.

Is Eddie back in yet? Or still waiting on news to ride it up? I'm sure there a fabtastic return after news drops. If you can buy any.

It was the BMD tip that led me to check this one out, and get in back in the spring. We're third on the top risers board today, which might catch some attention. And the news could possibly catapult this up. We're still a micro-cap with colossal otential.

I for one will be appalled if they've just arranged a £10m ERDB loan to free up cash for a share buy back scheme. I mostly disagree with those schemes anyway, companies only do it to massage their bottom line when they're not growing. SDX should be able to demonstrate strong organic growth over the next couple of years, and hopefully beyond, and that's what they should devote their resources to, imo.

I agree with bambs, on no knowledge whatsoever. But I think it's better to wait until after the bank holiday, when people are getting back to work after their hols, and thoughts turn to making some dosh for Crimbo. September should bring news, and possibly early September.

60p seems to be quite a tough resistance line to break through. I hope we can before results, which should help us move up again.

If the West Phoenix does head off to drill Chevron's Captain well next, then Ragnfrid (in the depths of winter) then the three UKCS drills with verbier last, I would imagine they would be able to decide where to drill taking account of the 3D. With the Verbier appraisal drill only finishing the better part of a year from now. That's about the gloomiest schedule I can think of, without getting into unlikely scenarios. None of us know though.

Couldn't agree more JMO. Crony capitalism stinks. But its far and away the lesser of two evils compared to crony communism.

Eldorado. I think the West Phoenix can handle the North Sea in winter. I'm a bit more dubious about it handling the Norwegian Sea, further North, in the winter though. Might be wrong, in which case I feel for the guys who'll be manning the rig up there then.

All depends. The longer the West Phoenix sits at Guillemot, the later its getting to drill Ragnfild in the Norwegian sea. Even if it sets off right now, it will be well into winter before its done. Bit of a dilemma for Equinor I reckon. Drilling it June/July would have been ideal.

Of buying in the last half hour. Whispers of news possibly even this week. I've been in a while now, waiting patiently,

Given that Ragnfrid was estimated to take 81 days, and the West Phoenix has to sail there before it can begin (and it ain't exactly streamlined) Equinor and the WP owners/operators are now looking at it being up there in serious winter weather. Depending on how long it's delayed at Guillimot, they may revise again, and do the 3 UKCS drills first, then head up to Ragnfrid late winter, early spring time. But this is pure speculation. Equinor will wait until they have certainty on when the West Phoenix can mobilise for their campaign before taking the final decision. And I would expect we'll be told pretty quickly thereafter. Either way, Verbier will be drilled and it's resources appraised. I can wait.

It is very annoying that the Hibiscus/Anasuria drill is now over-runnng, but we have no idea of the reason. What we do know is that Equinor re-jigged the drill order. Looking at the map, it is pretty clear that Equinor now want to get the West Phoenix north up to Ragnfrid, which was always the plan, to drill before winter sets in, and then move progressively South as they work through the drills. So, they had probably been given the heads up by West Phoenix operators that they expected the Guillimot drill to over-run, and have re-jigged accordingly. Yes it's galling that WP is currently close to Verbier, and will go past it heading North, but only a fool would arrange a drilling campaign through the North Sea and Norwegian Sea that headed progressively North as winter set in. It's out of JOG's hands, and it will happen as soon as possible. The idea that Equinor might keep the WP kicking its heels around the top of the North Sea in winter to wait for the 3D to come through is frankly ridiculous - that rig is not cheap, and Equinr will be keen for it to get through the programme as quickly as possible, especially as the start has been delayed.

A week next Tuesday Southmead. PW must have seen your post and answered almost immediately in the RNS.

More great news, which makes the recent sp slump even more puzzling. One day, etc etc

Good to see. Placing rumours seem to have receded. Hope no-one here panic sold on the dip.