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It is also generally trading well within the spread, except for large trades. The wide spread is just MMs trying to protect themselves from sudden moves, unsurprisingly given the way this has moved over the last couple of weeks. Although if news of a contract win drops, I think the recent moves will look like a mere blip,of anticipation.

At a guess, unrelenting dilution, and a slight loss of faith in unicorns and fairy dust amng the true believers

Sandy, welcome. All reporting is dne with reference to the spread. Your trade was bang on the mid point, between 2.1-2.5. On moneyam it was reported as a 'don't know'. With wide spreads, you often get all trades, biys and sells, on one side of the mid price, so MMs can obscure whether there are more buys and sells. Naughty, but it happens all the time, across many shares.

Although this is still very speculative, the fact that someone, or some institution, has just bought 15% of the Company, does suggest that this has a decent chance of making a go of it.

Bizarre trades though. I can understand the 1m transfer - although who'd want to sell a mill at that price? But then 400,000 bought in the last five minutes - and no impact on the price? It's a great company, but there does seem to be endless stock manipulation keeping the price down. Getting really annoying, frankly.

That's not the TR1 we're really waiting for. Who bought almost 16m shares?

Virtually no free float left with that 16m buy reported yesterday soaking so much up. We should find out who soon, and that will catch attention.

And UKOG just announced even more dilution. And the sp is going up. EasyBrent reckons it's valued 6.5x NAV. Absolute insanity. What is truely amazing to me is that it has now defied gravity for a year. But all such dreams end in tears eventually. SDX has hard production and cash generation on its side.

That's gross. Assigning a value of £3 per share to Jog now assumes a value of £14.55 per barrel to 4.5m barrels. As Brent iscurrently trading at almost £59pb I'm assuming almost £45 per barrel cost, tax, time discount, even discount to see their share in Verbier now. Doesn't seem too unreasonable to me.

The real upside though will come if the appraisal and 3D demonstrate reserves in excess of the base case of 25m barrels.

PI joe, I said it was a back of fag packet calc, and stated my assumptions. I am an accountant, but I really can't be bothered to build a comprehensive spreadsheet to take account of all relevant factors. Analysts do that.

And on that note: "WH Ireland analyst Brendan Long, in a note, takes a mid-point assumption from the Statoil estimate for new discovery, pitched by the Norwegian firm between 25mln to 130mln barrels, valuing some 77.5mln barrels at 855p per share for JOG’s 18% stake."

So my base case 25m barrel back of fag packet calc of £3 per JOG share isn't too far out. Anyway, I'm buying at the current price.

Be very interesting to see who that was. Hope we get a TR1 soon.

It's bouncing back. The sell on news yesterday was pretty bizarre.

Brokers must have been working this for maybe a week to get that sort of volume together, so probably got a fair bit around 1.4, then kept buying as the prce went up. There was some speculation around a week ago that maybe 30m shares were in free float, so this has taken around half of that. Any news, be very hard to buy in volume.

I thnk we can all now see why the price has shot up over the last three trading days. Someone just bought over 15% of the company.

Gustavio. The service Alpha offers is not new, it is well established, but only in the USA so far. Alpha are seeking to introduce it to Europe, Asia I think, and maybe further afield. Alpha don't negotiate a better deal with the insurance company, but with policy holders. Many holders simply let their policies lapse, by stopping paying the premiums, in which case the insurance companies simply pocket all the premiums that have been paid until then. Many policy holders don't even realise that their policies can have a cash in value. Bt where they do, then yes, I think a better surrender value might be offered. The premiums have to cntinue to be paid, until the original holder dies, at which point it crystalises. So, the nsurance companies who underwrote the policies lose out by havng to pay out in full ultimately. But they have already budgeted to this this when the wrote the policy.

Thanks Graybird. As I said I thought I recalled JOG saying $35pb costs. For tax, I believe they have an accumulated tax credit, not sure how many barrels that might cover. So, around $40 profit per barrel. If your exchange rate converts that to £10, may I respectfully ask where you change your money? At that rate, I'm heading to the States for my next holiday.

It may just be traders, but there are some pretty big sells going through. And there have been through the summer. There does seem to be someone whose endlessly offloading here. Still, we're around 20% higher than we were last summer, so if we can continue to grow at 20% pa, that's not all bad.

Good point fairdealer, I did.

I guess they figure that drilling success makes no difference to sp, so why bother announcing. Solid results. Self-financing through a very extensive drilling campaign. Very few other aim o&g can say that. Sell on news though, sigh.

Good point Mesquida. I did say base case, but didn't emphasise it. JOG is worth £3 now, and will be worth £3 if the Verbier appraisal drill and 3D don't find anything more than the mnimum already estimated.

But the initial estimate ranged from 25-125m barrels. Lets assume they prove up 75m barrels - mid case. Then JOg would be worth £9, possible more, depending on Capex.

Top end, 125m barrels, £15. Based on my back of fag packet NPV of course.