Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It is a bit naive to be valuing the deal based on the minute to minute gyrations of NFC's share price. The important thing will be an assessment of the value of the combined entity post acquisition, albeit with an enlarged number of shares. The rational for the proposed take over is that the sum will be greater than the parts. I cannot sell NFC shares today as a result of the take over, so the immediate share price is largely irrelevant, unless you are a novice investor.
The RNS is out. "The Combination represents a value of approximately £0.10 per SDX Share". Sheesh.
Having clicked through and registered, the forecast of a 19% fall in earnings growth is based on a single analysts's pronouncement. It doesn't say who the analyst is, or link through to their analysis. It's a strange metric though. If earning were growing at, say 100% a year, but predicted to slow to only growing 81% a year, that would be a decline in earnings growth of 19%. Earnings growth would still be phenomenal though. Without knowing the underlying assumptions, the figure 19% is meaningless.
No Doc, I think it's your relentless deramping that's dragged the price down.
Just posturing to try and squeeze a bit more out of NFC. They do not actually have enough shares to be sure they can block this, now that their letters of intent have been withdrawn, and irrevocable undertakings revoked. But it would clearly all be much easier if they were onside. How much money would that save? Possibly up to 10p a share - if I were NFC I'd bump it up say another 3p cash per share.
Richjp was there and has summarised what she said over on a d v f n, as Metis said (comment at 9:11 this morning). Well worth checking out.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/m-c-saatchi-SAA/share-chat
ADVT own and have irrevocable undertakings over 26.4% of the shares. This is enough to block a court approved takeover, but not a contractual takeover. I imagine the letters of intent they hold are now not worth the paper they're written on, given the handsomely better offer on the table. Blocking the deal will really annoy those who provided the letters of intent, and the irrevocable undertakings, as well as losing ADVT a very nice windfall gain on their shareholding. It would be a very bad business decision. They may though wish to posture a little to see if they can't squeeze a bit more out of NFC.
I agree Taverham, and am slightly confused why the sp is 10% below the firm offer from Next Fifteen. Not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, I've bought some on that basis.
I'm wondering whether it makes sense for him to exercise the options when the share price is relatively low, to minimise the tax bill, or whether it would have been better to wait for a higher price so he could cover the tax etc costs by selling less shares. As a higher rate taxpayer, I'm leaning towards the former. Does anyone know, though?
37% of $12m is $4.4m, not 7.5.
JDF7, while I certainly agree that the civil servants are not worried about husbanding taxpayers money, the idea that they'll be thinking about contractual practices in the future and what if any messages and precedents will be given in handing the owed monies to us is frankly laughable. I speak as someone who spent quite some time in the civil service. Surely you can't have missed their deeply entrenched and long standing utter incompetence when it comes to procurement, across the whole gamut of Government activities. Do you think they'll give that up because of GLP? It's a badge of honour to screw things up and vastly overpay. And if anyone complains, they're shown the door.
In general, the Government is committed to making prompt payments, especially to small suppliers. Given the already unconscionable delay in paying Abdx for products it has taken delivery of, and used, I would hope and expect to see very rapid payment once the GLP case is concluded.
I think the most potentially productive way forward would be for shareholders to lobby Evraz to legally challenge the Government's decision to sanction, given the clear lack of a level playing field - to whit: no sanctions on sanction busting France and Germany for selling weapons to Russia; all the UK companies that made money from the pillage of the former Soviet Union after the collapse of communism (Private Eye passim); and, all the UK companies that have made money out of facilitating capital flight out of Russia, particularly into London and UK property.