RE: July 23rd25 Jun 2020 13:31
Hi Paddy,
Hope you are well.
I recently commented on the possibility of NCM being in a position to release the Maiden RE in July. I recall you also considered it a possibility. I would be interested to know if you still feel the same as I am now in two minds.
From my point of view, getting the initial indicated figures out allows other factors to come into play however I appreciate that it is a balance between a lower initial figure versus timescales bearing in mind the Telfer situation.
I realise that the Maiden RE will also list inferred as well as indicated Resources so giving a flavour of what further infill drilling will bring when NCM are able to move such inferred numbers into the indicated when the second (Mineral rather than Maiden) Resource Estimate is released. This should protect the SP.
The reason for my being in two minds is that the 5% aspect is, of course, based on timeframe/spend and to my mind NCM will be in rather a good position in relation to the ‘fair market value’ aspect as the value can surely only be based on exploration results at that time. I, like many others, have also thought a full Hav purchase by NCM to be a possible scenario and have always considered that that was why the 25 per cent remaining was Included to ensure that any negotiations around the 25 per cent (if GGP were minded) would happen only when a much more realistic knowledge of the total resource at Hav was known or at the very least could be surmised. (I accept that the full extent could take many many months) This would not be the case with the 5 per cent written into the Farm-in.
The balance therefore is an initially lower resource estimate than would otherwise be the case, versus the fact that with an early MRE, things will start to move towards permits, decline, PEA, and mining at the earliest possible opportunity.
I am sat on the fence.
Kind regards
UR