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I thought he said in presentations it cost around $350m. He is worth around $400m himself, I wonder if that could be the reconciling number ?

Not in a million years would Pavel be welcomed back. He ran up an $800m debt over 10 years leaving the shareholders with a factory running at 30% capacity.

Lawrence,

only a masochist could support the return of Pavel

1noise,
I disagree, the investigation is necessary for transparency. There can't be reconciliation until stakeholders know the truth. Look at the impact Pavel's prosecution has already had on the staff of the company.

Rusty,
POG will currently already get better pricing as they have already reduced debt by a quarter. If I were to take a stab at it, I think it currently starts around 7% for $500m, probably reducing by 1% per $100m. This includes a risk premium for their bad history and geography. They probably made $50m cash in Q1 2021 alone. They would want to retain a certain amount of leverage for efficiency, say maybe $200-$300m. $300m @5% is only $15m interest vs $500 @ 8% which is $40M. This is a more normal company leverage.
They currently have a $400m revolver with Gazprom bank. Maybe they could localise the debt but fix it in dollars to avoid the inflation premium.
Another option is that if Iron ore stays where it is for a certain period, they might be able to sell their 31% of IRC once its own debt has been normalised and should get more then 10x what Pavel wanted to give it away for.
I would suggest they start the refi process at the start of 2022.
Financing is mainly a problem for those leveraged to the hilt or if you can’t trust the intentions of the CEO.

and you should give Pavel his due, POX was a twist of mad genius, but terribly executed. But it does give this company the potential of an annuity.

and effectively with point number 3

It would take 4 years. and they need to do three things:

1. Repay the debt (saving $70m a year in interest p.a.) - 25% completed
2. Fully utilise the POX hub with own mining product - 35% completed
3. Reduce the cost base efficiently

petra53,
POG is unsellable at the moment. Too much debt and too many staff. If it was turned around maybe in three years.

Lawrence13,
That happens only in movies, if you remember last year’s AGM, private investors were deliberately cut off from the conference call when the results didn’t go the way of the BOD.

Just being hopeful

In 30 days we will be able to swap out our asda bake beans for nice steaks as POG sp will be soaring....

You make some good points Rusty.

redrobb ,
yes, last year POG had, poor management, higher debt and IRC was a liability not an asset. Now we need to see action on volume and cost.

rashariati,

actually, what I was saying was that I think the pain of watching Gold go down is almost over as the rise in the yield has limits. And you are correct, if the stock market falls it is probably not good for Gold in the very short term. The big questions on the yeild are what is the limit, how does it become the limit and when does it become the limit? And then of course the size and duration of inflation.

I am pleased with the way the POG share price is holding up.
10 Year is at 1.56% it cant have very much futher to go before the wheels start to fall off the world.
Inflation is also comming soon.

Don’t call Pavel "gluttonous greedy”, Lawrence.
$400M is not what it used to be.
One could previously pay a dividend for 10 Years to the shareholders with $400m.
You can't do that today, as there are so many more shares in issue.

rband,

I am a fan of you and Shedulike.

But you are absolutely right, lets not have any comments about Russians in general here please.

And that is not the fault of the staff, its the management who allowed it to become so.