Member Info for Unluckaviva

From what I can see nearly 2/3 of finances and production is in Russia, Putin banned companies operating in Russia moving out large amounts of cash to foreign entities, also as sanctions have made borrowing and financing harder and more costly the company will want to hold profits for operations, I do not think we will be seeing Divi for a year.

Although I am nursing quite big losses as I bought lots of shares at £3.30 thinking they were a bargain I still would like some opinions on my thoughts, I am not worried currently a the share was trading at nearly £17 at one point and the fundamentals are still there long term to return I guess to easy £10 on some form of normal trading again, but here are my options in my head.

All profits go into paying bills and clearing debt whilst there is difficulty getting dividends from Russian assets, this save interest on loans and sures up the company for future with lower debt payments.

Maybe pay Russian profits from mines there to Russian investors and international investors get paid from Kazakhstan operations?

In my head even if they sold or split the company the money still could not leave Russia due to them banning large sums of money leaving country.

They split company in two and we own two shares instead of one, one pays dividends to us from Kazakhstan and gains value, the new Russian poly company keeps running and clears debts, the international one values to £5+ a share, Russian poly sits at £1 a share until war ends???

Thought please?

Will

I do not see them just piling up the cash when it can be utilised for clearing debt so that would seem best option to myself, I think the war will keep going for a long time, they had already been fighting in these regions since Crimea occupation so Russia are in no rush, sadly people just tune out war after a while if it's not on their doorstep.

Karv1, I am with your thinking, they were quite happy to only of been hit by about 130 million in Covid related claims, most of their policys did not cover pandemic cover, only seems that broker sold ones seemed to catch them off guard by the way the some brokers wrote the policy out using their discretion on cover and wording, but to me its a question of trading up where I can to add to my long term hold position, who doesn't want a 10%+ income stream for life? most pensions payout less than half of that when policys are bought, I dont see Aviva going anywhere for ever due to size and brand awareness, I just wish they would open up to the SIPP and ISA areas for people doing their own ting, they are missing I feel massive market opportunity there from people like myself and younger people who are hands on, my ISA and SIPP are with AJ Bell, I would much rather have it at Aviva, they are older and larger, but not an option, my family's are all with HSBC, they also would move to Aviva if an option, they went there from HL, Aviva need to reconsider my proposal lol.

DC, in fact it looks like Aviva have been day trading in some of these or got cold feet very quickly take Cairn, on the 26th they went up, then on the 27th and 28th they seemed to sell? Cineworld the same, on 20th they went up in shares from 5.08 to 5.31% and then on the 21st they drop from 5.31 to 5.15% seems odd? perhaps you have more insight than me but it does look strange.

DC, I see actually you are probably right on the way round, I find the form seems oddly written, but these re not purchases, they are sell, if you look at the previous holding they are all higher than the current after notification, if you take The PRS REIT Plc for example, they had a 8.92% position on previous notification and then 7.87% resulting in situation on date, so these are drops in shares, so Aviva must of sold some, that seems to be the case in each RMS

DC, they did read and answer our questions, both of mine were read out, although he gave a long rubbish answer to my question about why they dont do share dealing and SIPP/ISA self investing like AJ Bell or HL to capture the self run market, but he did say they were looking at new product options, sadly he leant though in the direction they prefer to manage choices rather than allowing customers.

I would add its good for Aviva when the moving on happens, it will remove the unknown and they will I am sure write Covid out of their life policy if it remains rampant but normal.

comeonvg, yes that's the point, we always adapt, hence we will just get on with stuff and will forget the daily briefings and deaths, they will blend into normality, we dont have daily flu deaths reported or anything else, I dont know how old you are but when HIV/AIDs was first discovered to be what was killing people they were obsessed with that for ages, like with the differing vaccine reports we get daily now the HIV vaccine was also reported on in a similar way, it was often on TV that a prostitute in Africa was found who had slept with hundreds of infected and had natural immunity, she would be the magic bullet for vaccine, then a prostitute in Russia would lead to a cure etc, here we are decades later, no cure or vaccine, but the society just moved on.

DC "They are not institutional investors the rns you see are the Aviva investment arm using there funds to buy stakes in companies they should be buying back their own shares at these low prices"

Surely that's not right???? those RMS were others selling part of their stakes IN Aviva? its a notice they have reduced voting rights?

Sadly I dont think there will ever be a vaccine, I think that they have never succeeded ever in a successful one for any corona virus, the last serious science I saw on this was that the virus stays and multiplies in the mucus of the nose, vaccines sit in the blood, then once the virus is established and sufficient it them attacks the body and overwhelms the defenses, this mucus problem is the hard bit, the same scientist also pointed out that the vaccine was never a part of this, the science message was to "flatten the curve" to not overwhelm the NHS, somehow this message as been perverted into "we need a vaccine" I think that's reality is that this will be a long drawn out exposure, at some point everyone will of caught it, then the population will cycle through life with being reinfected like the cold or flu, but we will get used to it and it will become normal, many people are already ignoring advice and are just bored of the whole thing, I think sadly the vulnerable and old have a long long time in shielding, annoyingly that includes my builder in middle of my bathroom renovation!

Oh and they can collect tax on dividends not in an isa, but they cannot collect that tax if the company just sits on it.

The Low IQ man that is Trump has wanted negative interest rates from the day he was elected, he has pushed and pushed for them even at the high tide mark, fed kept telling him they needed to stay positive for many reasons, including to have ammo on a downturn, so he is only signing the same tune as always, I imagine when you carry as much debt as he is rumored to be in then any interest rate reduction is welcome, Trump understands nothing to do with economics, he still think that stock market prices are the "economy" and he has no idea how the economy is actually measured.

Anyway I think for banks then obviously negative rates are bad for the bottom line, but I am going to assume for insurance, pension and investment companies I would think most of their cash is not in actual cash, they invest in stocks and assets, I believe Aviva own shares, property, bonds and other currency, so are less at risk to a negative interest issue, even when needing cash dont they create the cash on demand by using some weird financial instrument setup? didn't they create 7 billion the other week?

Also if negative interest rates do happen and Aviva do hold big cash as cash, then that's another reasons to payout all the cash as dividends, they dont lose money on money they are not holding, also the government should encourage that, if we get back our good dividends then we can start spending to support the economy.

I think it looks like this will trade between 222 and 245 until dividend is restored, there is no point people owning a great cash generator that's not paying the cash, but it's a bad time to bail because you need to be holding when they restore dividend or decide to do a special to offload the held cash, hopefully when dividend is restored we will get the dividend income investors back.

karv1 that's my line of thought, if I had a ton of cash and bank started to charge me for holding then I would be investing all of it as soon as possible, that's the point of negative interest rates, it's to stop people sitting on money and get it working.

I sadly suspect people are still scared of the overblown risk of virus and the fake perceived risk to life insurance etc, although as I said previous the virus is hitting a group I suspect not covered and in lower numbers than said, at start of crash they were predicting 80% infection with 250000 dead or maybe 3-5%, luckily nowhere is near the original spin, but I think the fear remains and so money going into safer places.

And I cannot believe with the good update that this is still on the slide, I was hoping that it would bump by at least 5% and start an upward tick as this update kind of pointed out there has been no major shake to them, just really a temp slow on new uptakes.

Went to 203% and is currently 186 is what he said.

The proof I sent was a screen shot from my AJ Bell account showing my shares.

I assume they answer all the relevant real questions from everyone, normally all shareholders can attend an AGM I believe even with one share, but they did online questions in advance because this year its going to be virtual with only the few largest holders in attendance due to social distance rules.

I am sure they will address the dividend as its a popular question, the last info the board gave I believe was they would be looking at Q4 this year to maybe pay out again.

I did not only send the question, I also sent a suggestion, I suggested they also look at maybe opening up their resources to build a trading site like AJ Bell, they could then attract new ISA and pension investors and benefit from all those selling and buying fees when people trade their shares, it seems to me they are missing a massive part of the market by only doing funds and set investment platforms, they could gain massive market share I think using their brand which is well known, not many people have heard of the investment platforms unless they are in the know, but most people know Aviva, I bet only 1 in 10 know AJ Bell or HL for example, so Aviva could easily run SIPPS and cash in, if people agree they could also ask why they are not doing them, enough people ask then we could maybe shape a future project, who says as a share holder we cannot suggest a new direct as well?

If no one ever bothered then there would never be a change in anything anywhere, but asking the right questions may help put the right things in their minds, to be fair we cannot moan or be upset if we cannot even be bothered to express our thoughts to them direct, not really fair for people to moan only away from those who make the choices.

Dont forget you can send in your questions for the AGM here aviva.shareholders@aviva.com they will ask you to confirm you are a shareholder, but its easy enough to ask those questions that annoy us, I have sent mine.