Member Info for Unluckaviva

So not one other person is going to comment on the fact someone dumped 5 lots of £15 million yesterday and the effect that would of had on the share price? No one thinks £75 million is worthy of thought?

At the end of yesterday someone dumped 75 million quids worth of shares, that had to scare off someone and/or flood the market dropping the price, that kind of movement must make people look and react to things they may of overlooked originally whilst they look for answers.

Oh it was 75 million not 60!!! That can seriously drop the price and spook people.

Ouch, I sold Aviva yesterday and bought here, that seems a bid error in the short term, but I assume those 60 million share sold in 15 million chunks yesterday did not help, they all seemed to appear after hours, I am guessing someone offloading big style.

Cheque

And if it was not based in Russia I would 100% agree, but like any company if they cannot refinance or need more cash on hand than they have then they will be between a rock and a hard place, added to that Putin already has halved previous sales and insisting deals are done in rubles over quite low limits then I makes all normal and logical choices mute, why do you think the board are even considering selling what were great assets six months ago? Why do you think banks have a target down from £22 a share to now only £3? They get to know the inner workings better than us.

There won't be any cash, I think at best it will clear debt on the Russian end, if everything was Rosey as people keep thinking then they would not need or be considering selling something you all think is so profitable, as for connections with rich people and assets being sold at fair values, all the bankrupt companies had the same connections and options and still they went bust, we already have seen proof Putin intervened and lowered other sales of strategic companies, and his decree is is that any company in joint or owned by a hostile country must conduct payment in rubles, so do you all have russian accounts even in the off chance there were money going spare?

I think you won't be far off, I think we will see jumps to about £2.80 and drop back to about £2.50 for Friday, all the noise will still be there for a long time yet.

Wish I took the £2.49 I was offered this morning and then bought back this afternoon. (Head slap)

Buckeye, reality on the ground sadly is often different to our own experiences thousands of miles away in freeish countries, logic often does not win the day sadly.

Oh so it's reality you have a problem with and those who are not the sheep trying to ramp a stock to pie in the sky values.

So you oppose differing views and assume that anyone who thinks or says anything against your wishful thinking must be someone faking? Sounds like you are judging others by your own dubious actions.

I am actually flattered i suppose as blue is not one of the sheep.

A lot of the moves will be dictated by moves we cannot see or predict but the board know, I favour splitting the company and running as two companies, a Russian one and a KAZ one, but we do not have access to debt due dates and amounts, or if an expensive thing needs some new finance for operations etc, we are blind to the day to day that can lead choices to a different outcome than we see value in, Putin's decree that joint owned companies with hostile countries share holders must pay out or use rubles limits how the day to day can even self finance or return money to us between different parts of the company, whole thing is a nightmare for board.

On the war length though, I saw Germany are getting bored with weapons supply now and said today they will not be doing much more going forward, maybe fingers crossed an end can be seen before a fire sale might be needed.

No chance, will be closer to £2 than £4.

People realised nothing had actually changed and it was not worth where it was heading.

Very interesting as the example you give shows that if you add accumulated new russian debt and even that little transfer that an asset sell is equal to around debt pile by the time government stamp on it, leaving KAZ with around half of debt still and only a third of past revenue, I can see why bank has such a low target.

My hope is for a split into two companies and wait, hoping the Russian side can cover it's costs with sales while we await for an end of conflict and sanctions.

They won't be able to move debt between institutions due to finance sanctions, which banks or investors would want to move debt secured on KAZ mine to a worthless russian one anyway, I suspect the debts where stay where they were borrowed.

I do not see anyone taking on that much debt in a deal, they would rather wait for company to fold and buy off banks for pennies.

They won't be buying anything abroad or paying a Divi as same problems will exist as now, Putin will not allow large sums of cash to leave Russia, that's why no one wants to finance anything in Russia as it's now where money goes to die.

Oh and Kaz is running around around £750 million a year through books and dropping, reality says they will end up with 1/3 of the debt, so around at least a billion if they can offload two billion of debt in Russia deal, which I suspect they won't get even close to as russian mines are kind of worthless currently due to plenty of options going cheap.

Refinancing is the problem and nearly billion of debt due within a year probably, banks still want their payments regardless of world situation, if you cannot pay your debts then the vultures flock in, we owe around £6 a share so may need to do deals to meet those commitments.

Because the Russian side was not toxic, they also had easy access to cheap financing, now 2/3 of the company is basically worthless, why do you think the other russian miners went bust? Because they cannot refinance debt and the underlying assets have become valueless, we owe around £6 a share to debt and even before war we only had around £4 of assets per share, if we are lucky they will split company and let Russia tred water, but if they sell russian assets i suspect we will be lucky to pay off the Russian debts.

As I have said multiple times the banks covering this are putting a target of £3 on this now, before they had target of £22! So potentially £3 is generous. This sucks for me as i bought in at £3.30, but if KAZ is all we are left with at best I see Divi at 30p now and only a third of the company still being functional.