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I don’t think the company had any choice in this deal, it’s not so much a good or bad deal but one for survival. So although it appears to be a heavy price to pay, better to do this deal now and carry on, rather than succumb to the financial reality next year with the possibility of a harder asset grab.
Very disappointing it has come to this, how much has the company spent on these financial arrangements over the last few years? The short to medium term would seem assured for now, but ultimately we still need that V price to go up, and stay up, for a sustained period.
About three or four years ago Rich Ken, at the time was posting the sp would be £1 by Christmas and £5 12 months later, so I called him out as he not giving any reason for his ‘ prediction’. These were getting dozens of likes. I on the other hand got quite a bit of stick.
So I set up a challenge with another poster, not sure who it was now to post something very vague but stating the sp would be many £’s in a couple of years. It had well over 50 likes, possibly near to 100. I guess most, if not all of that crowd are now gone, but alternative views were not really tolerated then either.
Closed period, due to the half yearly financials which could drop in a couple of weeks. I’m not certain though, if the closed period will continue after that due to the ongoing saga with MUST. If it is the case, then in effect, this is under a semi-permanent closed period. CC has stated he will buy once it’s lifted.
The selling will be done in a controlled manner so as not to create a disorderly market ( it might not seem like that ), so it will limit sells to a certain amount pre day ( or week). What isn’t know exactly is how many are left as there are undoubtedly sells occurring which are not part of the overhang. I note we have already had the premature seller out call.
The problem is AIM companies are less well regulated than main market companies. Sure you can buy shares, but the money does not go to the company. So you end up with a situation where the share price doesn’t really impact the company itself. He could be 1p, 10p or £1. The fact is that this is now in serious decline for 4 1/2 years and the recent debt reconciliation has not helped as that is dependent on the sp. I also don’t know about this approval, which did not seem to happen last time, or if it did, there was no need to inform investors and the market. So we are now told that this needs some sort of approval and we have no idea when this is coming. That will send jitters to the market.
We also have a situation where the price of vanadium has fallen back. Having said that the company had earmarked a price of $35 per kilo for the year and it remains just above that, but it needs to be above that for the company to meet its debt obligations and future expansion ( is 8000 mtv ever going to happen?).
I think the shareholder structure is completely different with FAR, and about half the shares are held by board members/ii’s. This will keep the FAR sp less likely to collapse, whereas here PIs now hold 80/85% of total shares allocated. Does make a difference and its why it is very difficult to do direct comparisons between companies, no two are the same.
Faramog. The figure on the company website is correct for 31st July. Where it gets a bit vague is the RNS of 9th August stating admission on or around 15th August and the 1.5b figure should be used in calculations. However, I’m not certain that this even impacts anybody, nearly all the major shareholders are listed as nominees. So no impact in change of interest will be reported.
I seem to recall a similar thing happened on a previous dilution where just the advance notice was published. Ideally the company should have update the website if all financial site are using the new 1.5b share figure.
From the 9th of August RNS. The company however don’t appear to have updated the website. The brokers notes included the increase
Application will be made for the New Shares to trading on AIM ("Admission") and it is expected that the Admission will take effect on or around 15 August 2023.
Following Admission, there will be a total of 1,558,211,859 Bushveld ordinary shares in issue, 670,000 of which are held in treasury. Shareholders should use the figure of 1,557,541,859 as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in the Company, under the FCA's Disclosure and Transparency Rules.
Not at all. sold roughly a million between 22 and 34, let 750000 ride, sold a few off since. Made several recent smaller purchases sub 5p. Majority of my purchases were 2015/2016, bought 1.5 million around 1.3p , initially bought @ 3/4p. Bushveld makes up about 5% of my overall portfolio, most in managed funds.
Bought recently in tesco and bp. Good outlook, less risk that here
I consider my buy today @ 2.5 as a reasonable short term(ish) trade. Certainly not without risk even at 2.5, I don't foresee it dropping very much from here, longer term it is going to be problematic getting above 6p with the overhang.
I’m surprised there has not been more discussion on these two broker notes, there again maybe I’m not. Both heavily caveated and subject to various assumptions. The Orion loan facility was never mentioned until recently in these notes. There is now acknowledgement on the detrimental effect It has had on the SP and will continue to do so, this covers the approval process and the subsequent dilution. Also highlights additional funding needed.
Both conclude that the price of Vanadium needs to increase , although by how much and when this could happen is a bit unclear ,but you cannot blame them for being vague around this. Again no target dates for their sp forecasts, but none of the recent broker note targets have come anywhere close and the sp has fallen each time one has been issued ( for the last 4+ years).
It isn’t something peculiar to BMN, the AIM market is attracting less investment than it was, there are multiple reasons for this. My stop the rot reference is really aimed at the share price capitulation here, agree a lot of shares are not doing anything, but here we have a share price drop of over 95% in 4.5 years, not many have done that badly. The start of the drop pre-dates the more recent bond rises, and Covid.