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The vanadium price had peaked in 2018 and started to come down in early 2019 to almost where it had previously risen from. There have been several high spikes/peaks over the years, certainly around 2004 and 2008 prior to 2018. From memory the case for a structural deficit was being pushed in 2019/2020 and this would result in higher V prices, this never materialised, the only small spike since was at the start of the Ukraine war which lasted weeks and I believe had very little effect here.
You want to see some of Richkens forecasts from around 2020. It was going to £1 then £5 a year or so later. Incidentally I recall one former prominent poster and large shareholder here declaring he was buying at 48p. I am fairly sure they sold out their large holding quite some time ago. Whether they did buy at 48p I’m open minded.
A friend sold out here in Feb 2021 when the price was about 17p at a loss.His reason was that directors and management started selling at the time. He told me that in his vast experience this was a very bad sign, his outlook at the time was the sp would drop.. Spoke to him earlier and he is not surprised at the demise here although has not followed in too closely and will not be buying back in. Wise decision he made
Its going to take the new CEO quite a while to turn things round, there are numerous areas that need addressing and I’m sure he will start to outline these in this promised report he said he will issue mid-July. However some factors are outside the direct control of the company. I have wondered if the share price fails to reach 6p within timescales of what the impact would be.
Just listened to the conference call. Interesting. Some of the responses were a bit like pmq’s. FM described the sp performance as bad, I think other can use more direct terminology.
The new CEO is ( hopefully) starting at the bottom. If you are going to measure his success by the sp performance, if the sp reaches 5p in 12 months time he could claim that as evidence of a turn round. That would represent roughly 70% increase from where we are. I am not sure of the implications should this fail to reach 6p within a longer timescale, thinking of the Orion deal here. First things first, he needs to steady the ship.
Orion are not going to ‘pull out’. They have only just agreed the new package with the company which awaits formal approval. They have far too much to lose, at worse they could take partial plant ownership should the finance deal not work out. I’m sure they have included something the small print.
The problem with these type of finance deals are that they use the mcap as financial leverage. When these do not work out it is always the shareholders who get shafted as the sp drops.
As long as Gwede Mantashe is Energy Minister there will be little or no progress in the SA energy renewables area. His nickname is King Coal and has links to the SA NUM which ihe ran. Very powerful and influential. Has been in office 5 years, with next elections due next year though ANC unlikely to be displaced
"Who cares UKSteveg."
Not me but quite a few posters on here apparently. This shorting narrative has been rearing its head for a long time. and I believe that in itself is potentially damaging, no one would invest in a share that was being heavily shorted. Some PIs will need access to their cash due to financial considerations, they cannot wait around for something to happen here and see their losses increase. It been on a downward spiral for about 4 years. Its a consequence of the share ownership base and the current economic climate.
Is there any firm evidence of shorting? Nothing declared above 0.5% , and as far as I can tell, the stock on loan figure ( which is a better measure) does not support shorting activity. With well over a billion shares now in PI hands you are always going to get selling, PI ownership is probably around 80%, it ideally needs to be closer to 50%.
One of the downsides to ii’s is that they will drop poorly performing stocks. The Baker Steel fund has performed poorly and I think that this along with other stocks have been jettisoned. Remember the fund manager is using other peoples money (investors) so the pressure will be on. The fund has under performed in its sector. They will have taken a large hit.
This is why a lot of funds avoid AIM stocks due to higher volatility and risk. Its just the way it works. They will use stop losses at various points to try and reduce losses, but they will get to a point where they drop out completely.
Codejunkie 07:28. The sp is nothing to do with operations.
Quite correct. This really needs re-emphasising, I have made the same point many times and I’m still at a loss as to why some people do not understand this. The share price movements are directly linked to the buying and selling pressure of the shares, under the control of the market makers. The movements are not directly linked to how much vanadium is produced, the exchange rate, perceived profits/ loss etc.
It is in the.companys gift to generate interest via formal (RNS) and infomal news updates to stimulate interest.
I believe the market is waiting for the company to clarify its plan to address the debt issue, I understand an update is to be provided at the end of June (?). Until then, its wait and see. Whether the company can provide positive news before that remains to be seen. A lot of derisking apparently going on.
That RNS from 2019 was issued when the price of vanadium had started to drop dramatically. Golden Summit may have been selling at the time. However, the wording is very careful. They said there was no corporate developments to support the movement. So that was factually true. Price rises and falls of Vanadium are not corporate developments.