That was exactly my point and am aware around half sales are to the US.The company quoted a price for Q1 ,i.e. up to end of March. The price of V has been dropping since, in fact it was dropping in some regions before this. When making any predictions/ calculations regarding the price of V it is safer to use the company’s figure ($35kg) rather than project out a price based on the first 30% of the year.
https://www.asianmetal.com/Vanadium/
Price of Vanadium has been dropping almost daily in the last few weeks. Yesterday’s RNS quoted average prices for Q1, the Q2 average so far will be well down on these figures. The company did use a figure of $35kg for its annual forecast this year so on course for that, but not clear how this plays into the Orion debt restructure.
An operational update is very unlikely on its own to make any significant positive improvement in the sp. Its either broadly ‘as expected’ which this one is, or it contains information which impacts negatively on the sp, e.g. strike action, machinery malfunctions, adverse weather, targets missed with no planB, etc. In some cases advance notice of these may be known in advance.
The attention reverts back to newsflow and what we can expect for the rest of the year. They key news will be the restructuring of the Orion CLN and however that plays out will certainly have an impact. This ideally needs to entice more ii’s onboard , this has been problematic over the last few years with ii’s entering and exiting in a short space of time.
I note that BBN said he expects an update regarding this by the end of June, not exactly certain why , I can only assume its connected to the BE spin-off. The sooner the better.
I fully expect the quarterly update to state that production target have been met broadly as expected. What is just as important as something stating what the sales have been, which at the end of the day brings the cash into the company. I expect something here so we will have to see what materialises.
However there are other matters at the moment which are really affecting sentiment and need addressing to calm investors. One of these relates to the Orion loan and what the current status of play is. Not an opaque statement, but something that is informative enough that can used be to reassure investors and the general market. I note BBN seems to think that there could be something in June, but I don’t know what he has based this on.
The current position regarding loadshedding also needs to be highlighted . I see no reason why the company cannot give more details of what this agreement is with the local supplier. It’s not going to stop it, but they may have come to some understanding around specific timings. The company have said that they have taken load shedding into account when producing the projections, but the loadshedding situation may have got worse since then. Again a clear statement is needed for reassurance.
The issuing of quarterly updates is slowly killing this. The company need to update the market more frequently., they have been extremely quiet on several fronts and opportunities will have been there to issue formal updates especially things like the minigrid and electrolyte plant. I’m sure there are other things.
The market reaction will determine whether a RNS is good or poor. If it drives the sp up then good, if it goes down then not good. I’m not talking about a morning spike either way but a more sustained and permanent movement over the days that follow.
I agree that part of the balance could be rolled over. I don’t think Orion will be as willing to accept shares, although this would be the company’s preferred solution as money can be kept for the various expansion projects. No question it will be resolved but deferring a chunk of this as part of a debt reconstruction does not come without risk, interest rates will be higher. Either way we are sometime to finding out what will be decided, probably announced just prior to the maturity date.
Shouldn’t have to do that. In any case, why would he tell a complete stranger via email what he should tell the market? Its either been extended or hit the rocks.
No idea what is going on here but the company should have updated the market as the maturity date lapsed again last week. I doubt it’s the FCA who are dragging their heels as this sort of thing is something they do on a fairly regular basis. To be suspended for almost 2 years and not give shareholders an update is very poor.
Lindon. Yep, thats about it. Its not as though the production figures are going to double and the costs half.. ‘As expected’ is probably the best outcome but I will be looking out for the impact of loadshedding on production. The figures have already been marked down by the company so it will be interesting to see what the actual effect is on the quarter’s production. A possible better than/worse than scenario.
My understanding of the next Q1 update is that it is specifically an operational update based on production numbers with a few unaudited sales/financial figures thrown in. I seem to recall that possibly earlier last year, that the company announced it would not be issuing a generic quarterly update and other news would be issued as and when necessary. Sure they can give a status check on non-operational matters, but anything that could potentially affect the sp would need its own RNS. I say this as I have seen some posts that may be over expecting what this Q1 update will contain. I can recall where and when the company made this statement about the quarterly report, it could have been made via a conference call. It has just coincided with a (complete) lull in other news.
For clarity I include gah123 as part of the problem. At one point in time it had semi reasonable posts but I’m going back a few years. It no longer serves a purpose for whats its meant to promote. Sammy if you are posting there you are part of the problem.
That advfn bb needs closing down. There cannot be more than three or four people who post on it and all use multiple usernames. Its not an investing bb, just a forum for idiots/ trolls to try and outdo each other with false or misleading claims and downright fake news. Some of those responsible also double down on Twitter ( different names ‘) and no doubt some on here resurrecting themselves but having to moderate their posts.
This is from November. Someone on the Mustang board has been chasing their CEO, after quite a bit at a time they have a response from him ehich they posted on Friday. They are hoping to have the prospectus out as soon as possible.
Hardly anyone is buying and that has not really changed for a long time, as has been mentioned before the lack of news on various fronts together with the Orion debt uncertainty (what the debt consolidation will look like) all contribute.