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I’ve seen the nonsense on Twitter as well. However by repeating it here it’s not clear if you’re endorsing it or not. If you’re not then I see no point in repeating it here. However, by referring to statements that the stock is being heavily shorted, it will deter investors from this. No one will invest in stock that is being heavily shorted, there is usually a reason why a share is attacked. You only have to look at the top 10 shorted shares and there’s a reason behind them.
Marc. How long have you been in this? Aware you joined about a year ago. You seem to have recently been pushing a couple of theories regarding this share, shorting attack, shares being pre-sold. Do you have any evidence as the stock on loan figures don’t support a huge shorting attack, stock on loan is relatively stable.
The timing of the BE carve-up announcement was poor. They should have waited until they had a fairly detailed idea and plan of how it was going to work and not left it for months of waiting to see what happens. That will deter investors as they are not clear what they are buying into.
I would find it hard to believe that anybody has watched it go all the way up and all the way down without taking at least some profits. That is the whole point of investment. The spike to 48p was largely down to golden summit, an opportunity that certainly may not arise at a future point in time. It’s also came on the van to vanadium prices rising to over $100kg.
I think there are some investors who are heavily underwater. The sp is partly underpinned by price of V and a collapse in sentiment. There is far less money being put in the AIM market than 2 years ago. We also await the future look of the company after the carve up.
I have used a figure of $15kg as a good profit benchmark. $20+ would be fantastic, in 2018 the company realised almost $100 profit for a brief period. However its important to understand what the full costs are and on top of the $23 kg (ish) the company quotes as operational costs there are some additional ad-hoc/admin costs, possibly around $5 kg. These costs are usually published with the financials and are a bit of an unknown until then.
Pdub - At any point in time a company will have a stockpile. Obviously that stock will have a valuation. But thats not the point that was being made regarding revenues and profits. Revenues important to show a company is selling things, but the profit (bottom line) is the key metric. E.g. selling at $35 kg is fine assuming a profit of circa $15 kg, selling at $35kg where the profit is $1 is not so good. Selling at a loss , i.e. costs above $35 is bad but sometimes unavoidable. I’m sure some people confuse the terms revenue and profit, there seems to be sometimes a focus on the price of V without looking at the full picture. It also why the company keep stressing that costs will reduce to appease the market, though at present it is not winning that one.
The next key metric announcement for me from the company is an increase in production and a reduction in costs when kiln 3 is in full swing , not exactly sure when this will filter through the quarterly updates. Again the price of V (outside the company’s control) will be a factor in the bottom line.
Didn't FM confirm that there are no firm orders/agreements for the electrolyte plant? Not entirely clear when it is going to be ready for production, the delays have not helped. Think its a foregone conclusion that the Orion debt will need renegotiating. Orion have done very well out of this.
The only relevant V price is the one the company achieves as detailed in the RNS. Costs also need to be taken into account to show net profit.
Asianmetals obviously only shows % increases over time periods. The more useful are the changes over the long term (180/360 days) and the short term(30/60/90 days) will indicate more recent direction of travel. Need to highlight the relevant products and areas. Not an exact science by any means but broad indicators.
BBN has also repeated his concern regarding the Orion CLN. I am in no doubt that this will have to be the subject of some sort of debt restructuring and it will need to be extended. The situation is far from ideal but thats where we are.
Regarding the kiln 3 ramp up, i’m still unclear as to how this is going to be reported as being successful. Again we have a vague reference to over 5000 MTV being achieved by the end of the year, but its not clear where we will see this work its way into the production updates. I guess the first full quarter at the uprated levels will be Q12023. Will the Q4 2022 update show anything? I think the market will be looking for some sort of evidence and consistency showing that the refurbishment has been successful and the increased levels are maintained
Eatstocks - It is sometimes rather difficult to distinguish between sarcasm and non-sarcastic comments on here as some of the non-sarcastic comments are so far removed from reality I genuinely wonder if some people are commenting on bmn or another company. The level of lack of understanding of the company and the workings of the AIM market is very high at times. I would also throw in some peoples gullibility around twitter/ bb postings.
With any investment you have to look at the risk/reward. AIM stocks are higher risk and certainly mining stocks fall into the upper part of this. At present the company’s profits are determined by the profit margin, i.e. sale price minus costs giving net profit. Very simplistic but also complicated to work out. Full information only comes with audited accounts. If it comes off rewards are good.
The sp has its own pressures, PI heavy shareholding (one billion shares plus), almost continuous CLNs (watch out for the Orion CLNs due late next year). The recent announcement that BE will be spun off has really not helped as well. Lots of questions around this. Share capitalisation being used as leverage. Also general downturn into money flowing into markets, various economic factors at play.
In the end you need a balanced portfolio. Spread the risk. Managed funds ( trackers/ actively managed), shares (main listing, AIM), Bonds. Use stop losses to mitigate, if it drops x% sell y%. Thats how managed funds usually work, whether done automatically or manually.
Company not in any danger afaik of going bust but sp could remain under pressure for some of reasons above. Needs to get this spin-off sorted. Needs to be clearer at times with the information it supplies.
The share price today has been skewed by last nights UT trade, it’s probably even today so far and the drop is from yesterday. People complain when its the other way round!!
Possibly one reason is the forthcoming split of the company into a producer and separate energy entities. Very few details released with the announcement and we could be waiting a few months. I think the company should’ve had more details around this when annouced with speedier timescales and not let it drag on. Creates uncertainty
I think that once the companies are split between the production side and energy side FM may move to the energy side and a new appointment will be made of CEO for the production side with someone with more direct production and expansion experience. I would expect FM to still be involved in some capacity with the production side, not too dissimilar to AVs role between Afritin and Bushveld which continued for several years. In effect the split is partly a derisking exercise to ensure both sides are not adversely effected by the other.
This largely depends on how the demarcation between the two entities is done, lots of possibilities there. One of the problems as I see it are the complexities of how the the ownership of the various parts is made up, I believe ( hope) that the split will address and simplify these areas.
It certainly will not be an overnight job and hopefully the initial announcement will set out the breakdown. Long term I see the production side being responsible for the expansion programmes (to 8000 mtv) and also the development of Mokopane. The energy side would look to grid solutions and also the possibility of a battery production plant in SA ( FM has already alluded to this). Obviously the timescales are years for this.