Member Info for Ufufuo

Previous RNSes have been clear that: "The proposal, following the successful drilling of CH-1, is to utilise the newly drilled well and the existing suspended gas producers, Ntorya-1 ("NT-1") and Ntorya-2 ("NT-2")."

and...

"The incorporation of three producing wells - CH-1, NT-2 and NT-1, the latter of which will be worked-over after the drilling of CH-1 to repair a minor leak in the casing string."

So, if they plan to drill CH1, then fix NT1 before production in the first half of next year, they are going to need to crack on with CH1. Surely, no later than Q4 this year or Jan of next?

I expect we'll find out soon (UK soon!). Issue of that already approved Development License first. Then schedule for drilling. I think they'll want to hold the AGM with a buzz in the air.

Wrong place, right time, right line then Northern! 😁

I have a huge holding ;-)

Your cellar plan sounds good. 10p party at Crusty’s place I think 😁

Agreed Roger. Weekend beer money? Buy/hold for champagne for life.

Couldn't agree more Wryape. Shall we round off the week with a reminder of possible valuations for Ruvuma, the World-Class Giant onshore asset for which we own 25%

"Why not" I hear you say 😁

Note all figures are unrisked. Note also that the two different Shard Capital scenarios I’ve extrapolated out from, consider a) just greater resources than base case and b) greater resources and production rates than base case:

“As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)

In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.

Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:

“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.

They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.

Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.

If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…

3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p

If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p

So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.

There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.

Just a yardstick. I hope this helps"

Yep. Ruvuma is the new big boy in town.

Coming back to the size of Ruvuma and value. The comparison to UK total reserves certainly puts things in perspective and gives credence to the World Class Giant classification and share price valuations many multiples of current levels.

It’s also interesting to compare with the much-vaunted offshore assets operated by Shell and Equinor. Shell has 16tcf, Equinor has an estimated 20tcf.

Would you rather be invested in Ruvuma, or one of Shell or Equinor’s enormous offshore blocks? The latter get all the hype but as I’ve posted before, costs of exploration and development of offshore gas fields are MANY times more expensive than onshore. Our onshore asset can be developed and brought into production much more quickly.

You want to invest in and sell thingamajigs. One company has an opportunity to invest in 8 thingamajigs, another an opportunity to invest in 16 pretty much identical thingamajigs but the latter will cost you several times more and take many years longer to be ready. Which would you see as more valuable? Which do you want to invest in? It has to be the one that is available sooner at a much lower cost!

Ruvuma is surely the place to be. Not so long ago, that might have been considered a very punchy statement. The market hasn’t fully caught up with this paradigm shift – but it will. Ruvuma is multi-tcf, a world-class giant, significantly less costly, faster to develop, all the required agreements and paperwork are sorted (bar a signing ceremony) and production expected within the next ~12 months. The offshore finds now hope for a financial decision next year, followed by another 5 or 6 years to bring to production.

Now that the huge scale of Ruvuma is beginning to be revealed, we can confidently say that Ruvuma is the premier and most valuable oil and gas asset in Tanzania. Now let that sink in 😉

Https://www.railway-technology.com/news/tanzania-first-test-daressalaam-dodoma-line/

I’m not sure if anyone posted about this already. This news about Tanzania’s $10bn Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) is more significant than it might seem on the face of it. Testing in progress and due to be in service in July.

The Tanzanian Power System Master Plan of Sept 2020 identified a large number of specific drivers of future power demand. Due to the SGR, Tanzania Railways is expected to need an extra 20MW of power.

To put that in context, there are 6 gas fired power plants in Tanzania. The Mtwara plant has a total generating capacity of 18MW. The Somanga plant generates 7.5MW. Admittedly, those are the smallest of the 6 and by some margin. The point is that 20MW is a significant amount of demand that’s about to come on stream - but just a small part of the wider story of growing domestic demand and plans to export gas and electricity!

Rojiutto is still trying to instil fear regarding availability of U.S. dollars. Today he/she said: "Claims have been made that the issue of the foreign exchange reserve deficiency in Tanzania doesn't apply to Aminex. Did Aminex receive Presidential immunity? If so, D.J. Trump would love to know how to acquire this Presidential immunity"

As a reminder, here's what you need to know for a more balanced view:

On 01st March 2024, Tanzania’s Minister for Finance, Mwigulu Nchemba was quoted as saying that he is confident that the supply of dollars in Tanzania will stabilise once mega projects are operational, easing the pressure of importing necessary equipment.

He said “Once these projects conclude, the scarcity of dollars will be history. We are also focused on enhancing crop production and expanding the value chain to facilitate the sale of more products abroad, thereby increasing the availability of dollars”

Then, on 15th April 2024, The Citizen news outlet reported that “The government is optimistic that the dollar crisis will start to ease from next month when the high tourism season begins. The situation will improve further, courtesy of a projected rise in exports of traditional crops and an increase in gold prices, according to the Bank of Tanzania (BoT)”

If you want a bit more detail, the article continued:

“Tanzania earned $1.3 billion from tourism in 2021, but receipts soared to $2.5 billion and $3.4 billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Gold brought in $2.7 billion, $2.8 billion and $3.06 billion in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. With projections pointing to a further rise in tourist arrivals and gold prices, BoT is optimistic that foreign exchange challenges the country has faced in recent months will soon be history. "We anticipate a surge in revenue from tourism beginning this May, coupled with exports of traditional crops such as cotton, sesame and others"

and...

“The government has implemented multifaceted strategies to address the foreign exchange crisis, including reducing dependence on dollar imports for commodities that could be locally produced, such as palm oil and sunflower oil. This involved developing improved seed varieties to reduce cooking oil imports. Additionally, the government waived taxes on solar products to lower import costs, aiming to reduce dependence on the dollars and alleviate its shortage. Reports also listed proactive government measures taken in the previous year, including providing export credit guarantee schemes and supporting local businesses to boost exports”.

So, lots of action has been taken and the situation is fast improving – with data to back that up and assurances from the Bank of Tanzania themselves.

In summary then, the evidence suggests that this is an ever-diminishing risk, and soon to be a non-issue. Beware the scare-mongering troll(s) and, as ever, DYOR

Oh dear RoJo, the share price isn’t taking any notice of you either 😂

BTW you sound agitated again. I hope you feel calmer again soon. Perhaps try swimming? It is supposed to be very good for you.

No comment from Rojiutto about the fact that he/she had been trying to convice us that the 3D siesmic results were going to be a dud!? Oh, how wrong that was! As a reminder:

Prosciutto wanted you to believe that the 3D seismic results were going to be terrible! I know!! This one is an absolute peach :-)

Prosciutto said (just one example!): "The 3D seismic interpretation is supposedly finished. So, why the delay with releasing the interpretation? Their thesis being that there will be a 'World Class' reservoir present. It is fairly easy to avoid a fraud but what isn't easy to avoid is the failed, honest efforts with a good target, with good people and with a good thought-out thesis. But what happens if their thesis is wrong? Is it possible they haven't found that 'World-Class' reservoir? ... mais oui. It is one thing being sanguine about the risk involved but what if there is no 'World-Class' reservoir present? Are you prepared to absorb a collapse in the risk- adjusted NPV?

Need I remind you of the results of the 3D seismic results that then followed? If you insist! :-) The headline figures were:

"Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf"

"3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf"

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, gas fields of 3 to 30 TCF are classified as “World-Class Giants”. Unquestionably World Class then. Better than that, a World Class Giant! This is significant. Encyclopaedia Britannica explains that “supergiants and world-class giants represent less than 1 percent of the world’s total known gas fields”

Lastly, let’s remind ourselves of what our leader, Charles Santos had to say about the 3D seismic results and next steps:

"We are particularly excited by the significant potential gas volumes now identified in other untested structures within the licence area. To place these volumes in context, the Ntorya accumulation is potentially the largest onshore gas discovery in East Africa and, with the sizeable new exploration targets, should be much less expensive to exploit than offshore resources. Further announcements can be expected detailing a future programme of drilling and an associated schedule to commercialise these exciting new opportunities and add further value for all stakeholders."

No comment from Rojiutto after he was casting doubt about whether Aminex would get revenues for condensate and was asking for evidence of this - which I provided! To remind you:

Prosciutto wants to convince you that Aminex will get no revenues for condensate. For example Prosciutto has said:

"TPDC owns the 'Condensate'. Orca Energy Group and M&P/WEN can attest to that" and...

"Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.."

What you need to know...

From ARA Petroleum’s “Revised Resource Potential – Post 3D Seismic” presentation from Feb 2024:

P.3 - “A seismic inversion, performed by Ikon Geoscience, calibrated to the existing wells and the new Ruvuma 3D seismic dataset, focused on further derisking the lateral continuity of the main Ntorya reservoir. Static geomodelling based on the Ikon inversion has resulted in the definition of a higher confidence discovery outline area extending to an area of ca 75km². This area now yields a revised and matured “Development Pending” unaudited Contingent Resource estimate of 3.45 TCF Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) WITH ASSOCIATED RECOVERABLE CONDENSATE OF CA 20 MMbbls.”

P.17 - “in a success case, SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES OF ASSOCIATED CONDENSATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRODUCED based on the results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 as shown in Table 1. WITH EXPECTED LOW PROCESSING COSTS AND AVAILABLE EXISTING MARKETS, THE CONDENSATE COULD PROVIDE A LOW-COST, HIGH MARGIN SUPPLEMENTARY REVENUE STREAM FOR THE PROJECT.”

So, evidence enough then that:

a) they have confirmed they expect around 20 MMbbls of condensate – and that’s just for the NT1 & NT2 area

b) they have put in writing that they expect this to be a profitable additional revenue stream

Please DYOR people and do not be hoodwinked by our resident troll(s)!

Oh Rojiutto, you disappoint me. I honestly thought you might do better this time. Just banging the same old rather battered and broken looking drum!

I’ve outlined the explanations and assurances given by The Board regarding the balance of current liabilities and current assets perfectly clearly. The situation regarding tax claims and the TRA was at the heart of that. The situation has been the same for years. The Board has been explaining that there should not be an issue because of part of the balance relates to disputed tax amounts – some of which may never need to be paid, the rest likely to be under negotiation for a long time. That has proven to be true.

With that situation still unchanged + a loan facility now in place should they need it, Aminex looks well positioned with the financial provisions it needs to first gas and significant revenues.

Your ongoing attempts to instil fear of a potential placing are therefore unjustified and misleading.

2 weeks tomorrow since the first news articles were spotted to say the 25 Year Development License had been approved. That was on 17th April but it was quoting the Energy Minister doing a speech to open Energy Week, which started the day before.

So, TPDC have had the instruction to issue the licence for at least 2 weeks now.

Hopefully not long until we get confirmation that it has been issued. ARA can then release details of rig contract and drilling schedule. I am sure they have been working on plans and are getting ready for some big announcements before the AGM.

As you well know, that is not what prosciutto (you!) said. prosciutto was in fact trying to convince people for over a year now that Aminex would either need to do placement and therefore dilute existing shareholders, or be forced into being bought out on unfavourable terms.

Myself and others argued for the last year that we had headroom to cover the year- this prove to be true. We also said that if more funds were needed, Aminex had options. Including a possible loan.

In addition to my posts on here, on 18th April, on Telegram I wrote: "I doubt that we have the cash to get to production now that has slipped to early next year. However, with CPR done and reserves booked, there would be no reason we couldn’t sort a small and short term Reserve Based Lending (RBL) loan. Running costs are super lean. So it should be a very small amount." Then on here more recently I wrote:

"The 12-month period from the last Annual Report finishes this Sunday. Fact is, no additional funding has been needed in the period – unless they reveal a loan or something in the next annual report, which is due in the next few days. So, the Aminex Board were telling the truth." and "If Aminex does need more cash, they should have plenty of options."

The loan facility (which is there “should the company need it”) provides security. The fact that ARA has provided it (on very favourable terms) is proof once again that they plan for Aminex to be around long term and to prosper.

You on the other hand have tried to create doubt and fear. For the avoidance of doubt, some quotes from prosciutto:

“It doesn't appear that cash flow will arrive in time for Aminex! What are they going to do?”

“A capital raise appears increasingly probable. The capital raise would trigger a significant drop in share price after the pump.”

“This carcass is already eviscerated. Without another placement, a single additional delay could cause this entire structure to collapse”

“If Aminex faces another setback, it will have to beg desperately for help. A possible scenario is that TPDC would be interested in some sort of agreement with Aminex. The current President could gain a political edge in the 2025 election by helping TPDC absorb a portion of Aminex. This move would appeal to many TZ voters”

The tide is rising.

Oh, dear, it’s like talking to someone in a call centre who can’t deviate from their script!

There are clearly many differences between us RoJo. Another of those has just become apparent to me ; I am evidently much busier than you and have other interests to pursue other than Aminex! I don’t know how you manage it, what with you being so many different people!

With that in mind, and considering the fact that you offer nothing new to discuss, I’m afraid I can’t spare the time to exchange endless messages with a troll such as yourself.

I am also considering the impact on the chat room and see no need to clogg up the forum in that way. For now, what needed to be said has been said.

Is that water around your ankles by the way? You might want to consider moving that rather fine looking chair further up the beach. Apparently the tides can be very strong around here.

So predictable RoJo. Hoping to be given something to latch onto.

Your misleading arguments lie in tatters. You are clearly agitated. Now hoping to dent sentiment and dupe potential investors with your empty jibes.

The Development License is crucial. It secures and de-risks the asset - Now ARA can spend millions on development, safe in the knowledge that they have the right to develop and produce gas from Ruvuma for the next 25 years.

That puts us on a steady path to production with plenty of news along the way. Again, money talks. Despite your best efforts, as word gets out and confidence builds, investors will buy in to the story. The value of the asset and those impending revenues - and the disparity with the current low share price - will be too compelling.

I’m not a trader and so I’m not focused on daily movements. However in the coming weeks and months I expect the price to rise as a new market dynamic gradually takes hold.

“It's like the tide, Jo, when it turns it goes slowly but it can't be stopped”

Louisa May Alcott (author), Little Women

Can you halt a rising tide RoJo? I’m going to enjoy watching you try.

Confirmation the 25 year Development License has been fully approved, has now been confirmed by the Energy Minister / Deputy PM on two separate occasions across multiple outlets.

From the last RNS (29th Feb):

“Upon receipt of the Development Licence, APT will:

• Contract a rig operator to undertake the drilling of the CH-1 appraisal well to further derisk the asset and, if successful, complete as a gas producer.

• Re-enter and repair a tubular leak in NT-1 to enable the well to be safely completed as a gas producer.

• Undertake further testing on NT-2, currently suspended as a gas producer, using a mobile test unit, to refine the design of in-field gas processing facilities.

• Continue to support the Tanzanian authorities in the early construction of a spur gas pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant to accommodate gas extraction from the field”.

“Further announcements can be expected detailing a future programme of drilling and an associated schedule to commercialise these exciting new opportunities and add further value for all stakeholders”

I notice our resident troll (under their ‘RoJo’ alias) now wants to convince you that the share price won’t move without the CPR - same old tactics. Downplay the current news and tell everyone that it means nothing without some subsequent piece of the puzzle (and their textbook response to this “watch the share price” / “and yet the share price is languishing “ / “nothing will happen for years”.

Don’t be fooled. Desperate attempts to subdue confidence. Money talks and so the value here will come to the fore. I’ll trust in the company stockbroker value estimates rather than a troll if you don’t mind.

ARA and Aminex have long said that the licence secures the asset and is the key to unlocking a wave of operational activity…

News incoming! ;-)

Prosciutto wanted you to believe that the 3D seismic results were going to be terrible! I know!! This one is an absolute peach :-)

Prosciutto said (just one example!): "The 3D seismic interpretation is supposedly finished. So, why the delay with releasing the interpretation? Their thesis being that there will be a 'World Class' reservoir present. It is fairly easy to avoid a fraud but what isn't easy to avoid is the failed, honest efforts with a good target, with good people and with a good thought-out thesis. But what happens if their thesis is wrong? Is it possible they haven't found that 'World-Class' reservoir? ... mais oui. It is one thing being sanguine about the risk involved but what if there is no 'World-Class' reservoir present? Are you prepared to absorb a collapse in the risk- adjusted NPV?

Need I remind you of the results of the 3D seismic results that then followed? If you insist! :-) The headline figures were:

"Operator's geomodelling significantly increases Ntorya GIIP to 3.45 Tcf"

"3D seismic reveals considerable upside for Mtwara Licence with total unrisked GIIP of 16.38 Tcf"

According to Encyclopaedia Britannica, gas fields of 3 to 30 TCF are classified as “World-Class Giants”. Unquestionably World Class then. Better than that, a World Class Giant! This is significant. Encyclopaedia Britannica explains that “supergiants and world-class giants represent less than 1 percent of the world’s total known gas fields”

Lastly, let’s remind ourselves of what our leader, Charles Santos had to say about the 3D seismic results and next steps:

"We are particularly excited by the significant potential gas volumes now identified in other untested structures within the licence area. To place these volumes in context, the Ntorya accumulation is potentially the largest onshore gas discovery in East Africa and, with the sizeable new exploration targets, should be much less expensive to exploit than offshore resources. Further announcements can be expected detailing a future programme of drilling and an associated schedule to commercialise these exciting new opportunities and add further value for all stakeholders."

Prosciutto wants to convince you that Aminex will get no revenues for condensate. For example Prosciutto has said:

"TPDC owns the 'Condensate'. Orca Energy Group and M&P/WEN can attest to that" and...

"Please provide evidence that the proceeds of any 'condensate' is forwarded to Aminex. Orca Energy Group / M&P produce volumes of condensate and ALL of the proceeds go to TPDC.."

What you need to know...

From ARA Petroleum’s “Revised Resource Potential – Post 3D Seismic” presentation from Feb 2024:

P.3 - “A seismic inversion, performed by Ikon Geoscience, calibrated to the existing wells and the new Ruvuma 3D seismic dataset, focused on further derisking the lateral continuity of the main Ntorya reservoir. Static geomodelling based on the Ikon inversion has resulted in the definition of a higher confidence discovery outline area extending to an area of ca 75km². This area now yields a revised and matured “Development Pending” unaudited Contingent Resource estimate of 3.45 TCF Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) WITH ASSOCIATED RECOVERABLE CONDENSATE OF CA 20 MMbbls.”

P.17 - “in a success case, SIGNIFICANT VOLUMES OF ASSOCIATED CONDENSATE ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRODUCED based on the results of Ntorya-1 and Ntorya-2 as shown in Table 1. WITH EXPECTED LOW PROCESSING COSTS AND AVAILABLE EXISTING MARKETS, THE CONDENSATE COULD PROVIDE A LOW-COST, HIGH MARGIN SUPPLEMENTARY REVENUE STREAM FOR THE PROJECT.”

So, evidence enough then that:

a) they have confirmed they expect around 20 MMbbls of condensate – and that’s just for the NT1 & NT2 area

b) they have put in writing that they expect this to be a profitable additional revenue stream

Please DYOR people and do not be hoodwinked by our resident troll(s)!