Member Info for Ufufuo

Has been strong in the final hour here recently. I’d be happy with a 1.65 close but wouldn’t complain if she feels the need to push higher 😁

Bid now 1.60, Ask 1.70

Looking good

That is correct SC. It has also been confirmed that offtake from that LNG plant is scheduled for early 2026. Tues in nicely with Ruvuma being ready by mid next year.

They anticipate production of between 17 million and 34 million standard cubic feet per day.

Lovely! Looking strong 💪

Aminex 2023 Annual Report P.8:

“First gas produced is targeting up to 60 MMscf/d from NT-1, NT-2 and CH1”

The Shard Capital report of 25th May 2023 explains that the expectation is for the field to reach the targeted production plateau (current base case 140MMscf/d) 2 to 3 years later.

As mentioned earlier, due to the excellent 3D seismic results, Shard believe this should result in a higher production plateau than that base case and resulting Free Cash Flow for Aminex from Ntorya of somewhere between $25m and $40m.

Hope that helps :-)

Nice to see

The Shard report is clear that their unrisked base case figure is 2.8p and that is based on 763bcf and production plateau of 140MMscfd.

Their recent reports have also been clear that, if resource estimates increase to 2tcf then they think fair value is more like a share price of 4.1p to 6.2p.

The CPR that is in progress will give Shard an independent 3rd party view against which they can confirm revised valuations.

They will no doubt update once the CPR is issued. That’s in progress and is another good share price catalyst that’s coming fast down the line

Again, Aminex’s company stockbrokers forecast Free Cash Flow for Aminex from Ntorya of somewhere between $25m and $40m at plateau production if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf.

Obviously, the 3D seismic results suggest we have more gas than that!

A nice try, but it is 2.5p BASED ON 763bcf!

Shard have suggested more like 4.1p to 6.2p if Ntorya had 2TCF.

The 3D seismic suggests we’re looking at larger sums than that.

Indeed blackgold, and in the company stockbroker’s view, even a confirmed 2tcf may warrant a share price 4 to 6 times the value that it was at the time of the report (noted in report as 1.03p) - 4 times more for the same production rates as base case. 6 times more if the increased resources enabled higher production.

That was based on 2tcf!

Oh, Rojo! “Watch the SP is my advice” are your own words from a post on 24th of April, when the share price was at 1.125.

So, it is your own advice that you are so sharply dismissing and that you don’t want!!!! 😂

The share price has risen nearly 40% since you said them, so I can see why those words now offend your sensibilities!

Particularly as you subsequently said:

At 1.125, referring to the CPR “Without it, I don't see the SP going anywhere”.

At 1.15p “Well perky, if you're right and the licence is a done deal, it has had virtually no effect on the SP”

At 1.15p “No surprise if the SP slips back...”

At 1.35p “Not looking great is it ? You think we'll be back to 1p in a couple of weeks joyo?”

Oh dear! 😂

You sound very agitated again by the way.

I think we’ll be just fine. As posted yesterday:

There will be plenty of profit according to the company stockbrokers:

"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:

1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.

2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"

So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.

Crusty, I love you but you are a stubborn mule! 😂. They say it’s a multi TCF asset. A world class giant. CH1 will be a very big step in proving that potential up. I’ll leave it there as I’m not going to endlessly debate the same point with you. Uf ❤️

Indeed.

The market certainly approves of the recent flow of news and communications. Going firmly in the right direction.

Watch the SP is my advice.

I’ll trust the viewpoint of Aminex’s stockbroker, rather than our in house troll!!

I’m confident most others will too!

There will be plenty of profit according to the company stockbrokers:

"Therefore, as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed:

1) Extending the plateau of 140mmscf/s for 20 years, would result in an increased average annual FCF of c$25mm/year, and an approximated asset value of £175mm (~4x the current market cap), using a simplified 12% discount on FCF in perpetuity model. We note that in this case only 1Tcf of resources will be utilised in the 20-year period.

2) Theoretically, increasing the plateau to 250mmscf/s for 20 years would effectively exploit almost all of the 2Tcf of gas in this 20-year period. This hypothetical case, in our estimate, would generate an average annual FCF of about $40mm, representing an approximated asset value of ~£275mm net to AEX (~6x the current market cap)"

So, Free Cash Flow for Aminex of somewhere between $25m and $40m if the 3D seismic results were 2tcf. Obviously, they were very much higher than that.

Of course they will learn more as they drill more ,and I anticipate further upward revisions.

They do clearly state that figure will be “based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1”

We do have a guide for what CH1 might prove up based on the high quality 3D seismic. Following the 3D seismic, ARA said:

Estimates related to NT1 wells:

“A most-likely (approximating to P50) estimate of 3.45 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) is now believed to be potentially connected to the reservoir sandstones encountered in the Ntorya-1 (NT-1) and Ntorya-2 (NT-2) discovery wells”

Estimates related to CH1:

“An upside aggregated GIIP volume for the Ntorya accumulation based on a success case in multiple stacked sands at CH-1, is estimated by APT to be up to 7.95 Tcf”

So ARA reckon there is potentially an additional 4.5tcf associated with CH1. To be confirmed by the drilling of the well course!