Member Info for Ufufuo

Could well be sooner than many expect 👍

Erm, 1.9 :-)

Nice

Last few mins to close :-)

…and banning people for calling you out, and others for supporting those that were banned. Very uncool.

Ask now back up to 1.95

Hi Diagnostic,

Some thoughts on valuations. Note all figures are unrisked. Note also that the two different Shard Capital scenarios I’ve extrapolated out from, consider a) just greater resources than base case and b) greater resources and production rates than base case:

“As the company’s stockbroker, it may be helpful to use the Shard Capital’s figures to derive valuations based on different scenarios. They published this research note on 29th Feb 2024: Is there a “big-picture” change in the cards? (research-tree.com)

In the report, they give an unrisked valuation of 2.8p for a scenario where Aminex has resources of 763bcf and produces at a rate of 140mmscfd. For a scenario where we have resources of 1.7tcf and produce at 250mmscfd they give an unrisked valuation of 4.6p.

Their earlier report from May 2023 (The time has come! (research-tree.com)) had practically the same figures (2.7p and 4.5p respectively). When considering potential outcomes of the – then yet to be confirmed – 3D seismic results, on p.6 of that report, they state:

“as a point of reference, we note two potential value points that we believe the market may consider when deciding how much value to recognise should the 2Tcf be confirmed”.

They then outline two scenarios based on different rates of production. Long story short, they say that 3D seismic results of 2TCF would justify valuations 4 to 6 times greater than the share price at the time of the report – which was 1.03p. So, somewhere between 4.12p and 6.18p.

Obviously, the 3D seismic has confirmed a good likelihood of there being 3.45tcf associated with just the existing NT1 and NT2 wells – and 7.95tcf aggregated including CH1.

If 2TCF justifies between 4.12p and 6.18p…

3.45TCF would justify between ((4.12 / 2) x 3.45) 7.2p and ((6.18 / 2) x 3.45) 10.66p

If CH1 brings us to 7.95TCF that would justify ((4.12 / 2) x 7.95) 16.38 and ((6.18 / 2 x 7.95) 25.57p

So, in summary, the 3.45tcf for NT1 & NT2 may justify a valuation of between 7.2p and 10.66p per share. If CH1 brings us to 7.95tcf, that would increase that to between 16.38p and 25.57p per share.

There are lots of variables at play here – for one of those, you may be interested to know that the Shard figures are based on a presumed gas sales price of $3.9/mscf – probably conservative.

Just a yardstick. I hope this helps

What does the Knights MPR PR machine have planned in the run up to and during the AGM?!! You just know they are going to be busy 😉

Up she goes

That £32,290 buy at 1.794 two minutes before the close yesterday sets us up very, very nicely for this morning!!

…and this time it specifically mentions the Ntorya gas field! Absolutely fantastic!

Fair points Crusty. Between us I think we’ve covered all the reasons to be optimistic, plus some sensible notes of caution. All good.

You are quite the worrier aren’t you Northern!? 😉

It appears the recent rise reflects confidence from the market that the licence is approved & will be issued in due course. The commitment to current deadlines by TPDC at their recent trip to ARA in Oman gives further confidence of that.

Every day that passes makes it more likely that news will drop the next day - these days, we don’t tend to wait too long between updates!

TPDC have committed to ‘no later than mid-2025’ for production. With land secured, detailed engineering design done, budget in place & tender about to go out for construction, that appears a very credible deadline.

ARA will now need to show they will meet their side of the bargain. The plan is to produce from NT1, NT2 and CH1 from the start.They will want to be sure they are ready & will presumably want some contingency.

That means they have 12 months or less to:

1. Confirm rig contract

2. Prepare CH1 pad

3. Transport rig to CH1 site

4. Mobilise rig

5. Drill CH1 including testing

6. Demobilise rig

7. Transport to NT1 site

8. Mobilise rig

9. Complete NT1 workover

10. Demobilise rig

11. Complete ARA scope of work for preparing the 3 wells for hook up to the pipeline

All of that means the license must be very soon…and rig contract needs to be sorted very soon after that!

They gave a positive & detailed update at the last AGM and I expect this year will be no different- 6 weeks away.

The CPR has also been in progress for a while now & should be another share price catalyst.

Remember, they’ve been getting stuff done. Approved Field Development Plan. Approved GSA. Dev License approved too - awaiting issue. Not just paperwork either: Completing the largest onshore 3D seismic ever in East Africa was no small feat!

Also, Aminex remains significantly undervalued + cash & financial measures to safeguard against shareholder dilution + our free carry for field development costs up to $140m (gross) + Ruvuma being a multi TCF world class giant + route to market being sorted & strong demand + well capitalised & experienced operator + 5 or more wells to be drilled after CH1 & NT1 are sorted + over $100m unspent tax losses & monies to come back to Aminex as repayment of ~$90m loan to Ndovu, which will combine to give years of extraordinary profitability + Aminex’s stockbroker forecast of $25m to $45m Free Cash Flow (FCF) per annum for Aminex at production plateau + new PR company, so comms no longer an issue + small scale LNG plant seemingly to be linked to Ntorya + large amount of very profitable condensate expected (those last two both on top of those FCF figures) + supportive government + pipelines planned to Uganda, Kenya, Zambia, Malawi, Rwanda, Burundi & the Democratic Republic of Congo.

I’m sure I’ve missed some things but I think the story - & our current position, on the cusp of a wave of material news & operational activity - should give the share price support before

Bid is back to 1.60

.

“Natural gas consumption went up by 12.8 percent during the fourth quarter of last year ended in December, compared to similar quarter of 2022, fueled by expand of demands by power generation plants.”

“The country has also developed the natural gas policy to provide guidance for the sustainable development and utilization of the natural gas resource and maximization of the benefits therefrom and contribute to the transformation and diversification of the Tanzanian economy”

https://www.ippmedia.com/the-guardian/business/read/natural-gas-consumption-increases-by-128pc-2024-05-15-104219#

Bid has moved up to 1.60. Ask 1.70 💪

Come on, move that bid up!

Live price Bid 1.55, Ask 1.70. Up 9.31%

.