Member Info for Ufufuo

Good to see that you are on to them Tanzania. Trolls using the same old tactics they have been practicing here for years.

It has been a trolls paradise. Times they are a changin'. Hold the line.

Hi Haggis, it is quite possible that the seismics will identify further resources. However, the current estimates are so enormous, I would be pretty happy just to have them confirmed - that would be a good result. Anything in addition would be the cherry on top ;-)

PROSI-GANDA:
The fundamentals of this microcap are very weak to say the least. With their hand-to-mouth existence, KNDL will most likely be a farm out arrangement. Aminex will never have enough cash to cover the US $60 - $70 million needed for two expensive offshore development wells and no banker would dare lend them monies. The stock price would fall off the cliff if an attempt was made to tap the equity markets. The investors wouldn't appreciate further dilution. They don't have much choice but to divest their KNDL 'operator status'. This will leave Aminex in the same hapless state Wentworth found itself in ... a lame duck.

REALITY:
Aminex has confirmed that it has enough cash to survive (without revenues) to the end of 2024. See RNS of 01st April 2022. Considering:
1. Production/revenues brought forward to Oct this year
2. A free carry for the ~$140m development costs of Ruvuma
3. Very significant revenues anticipated from Ruvuma (about $60m/annum net to Aminex at full field production)

Therefore, the fundamentals look very strong! If Aminex does farmout Kiliwani or enter in to some other form of partnership, then this only adds more resilience and another stream of revenue on top of the main meal, Ruvuma.

PROSI-GANDA:
Let us assume that there is production from NT-2 in October 2023 as they so claim. What would be the financial impact of such an event?

Production at 17 MMscf/d renders ~ US $ 4.25 million /y in net revenue
Projected net EPS estimate ~ US $0.0005.
Price:Earnings ratio 6:1
Price = US $0.003 /sh
Pound Sterling = 0.0024
It should be trading around 0.24 p. Apparently; the financial impact of NT-2 production will be minimal.
Trading at 1.15 p, indicates this stock is grossly overvalued even with NT-2 in full production. Of course, NT-2 isn't in full production.

REALITY:
Aminex stated that production at 140MMsf/d would equate to $40m/annum net to Aminex. That was based on based on Kiliwani gas terms ($3.07/mcf)…way back in 2018.

Since then, in relation to prices paid in Tanzania, the 26 May 2022 AGM presentation stated that “2020 average gas price ranged from $3.41/mcf - $4.34/mcf”

Also, on 25 June 2022, an article in the Tanzanian media confirmed that: “The government of Tanzania is readying to amend the Model Production Sharing Agreements (MPSAs) of 2013 to loosen conditions in the oil and gas sector…The changes will take into consideration the global trends in trade, fuel prices over the past decade and estimates for the next decade”

The GSA is due to be approved very soon, so we will then know the price we’ll get for our gas. For now though, if you assume $4.mcf, that would equate to:
140MMcfd @ $3.07/mcf = $40m
140MMcfd @$1/mcf = 40 / 3.07 = $13.03m
140 MMcfd @$4/mcf = (40 / 3.07) x 4 = $52.12m
1MMcfd = $52.12m / 140 = $0.372m
17MMcfd = $0.372m x 17 = $6.324m net to Aminex per annum. Or £5.074m GBP
Estimated EPS = 0.0012

Based on the M&P offer price, Wentworth’s P/E is 9.5. The P/E ratio is influenced by a number of factors – the size of the asset and therefore the number of years of anticipated revenues would certainly be one of them. Wentworth had net 0.14 TCF of reserves Vs Aminex’s 2 TCF! With the free carry, previous year’s losses to be offset and about $90m of revenues that will be recovered as repayment of a loan from Ndovu, Aminex will be highly profitable.

As such, a P/E of 9.5 once in production would be undervaluing Aminex relative to Wentworth. Industry average is 34.66 (across the oil and gas drilling sector - oil and gas production and exploration. So including multi-nationals as well as smallcaps). A P/E of around 15 is probably a realistic target for Aminex given the factors I’ve mentioned.

Share price forecast can be calculated as EPS x P/E. Based on info above, this would be 1.8p for NT2 alone with production at 17MMscf/d at $4/mcf.

Based on estimates of ‘AT LEAST 60MMscf/d’, the Early Production System comprising NT1, NT2 and CH1 would justify a share price of ‘AT LEAST 6.35p’. Call it 6.5p to 7p. Full field production at 160MMscf/d would justify 16.95p

With CH1 to be drilled and NT1 remediated this year, the EPS can be put into production. The share price sho

PROSI-GANDA:
"This comprises 80.6 BCF of Contingent Resources “Development Pending” from a three well development .. " 1. Feb 2018 Competent Person Report. This can't possibly provide any level of comfort”.

REALITY:
As others have pointed out, latest estimates from the company are 8.236 TCF gross (excluding the Jurassic. Also excluding Kiliwani). So, MORE THAN 2 TCF of gas net to Aminex.

Hopefully, the 3D seismic will result in further increases to those estimates. Either way, those figures are impressive and the Ruvuma PSA is a’ World Class Giant’ as defined by Encyclopaedia Britannica.

PROSI-GANDA:
“There are many reasons why this company has been on a multiyear downtrend”.

REALITY:
From Feb 2017 to Mar 2021 there was a downtrend. In a nutshell, because the Tanzanian government blocked progress by Aminex (and other companies). So, Aminex could not remediate Kiliwani or move forward with Ntorya. The share price slid from ~7.5p to around 0.45p.

In March 2021, the new President came to power and everything has changed for the better. Since then, operational progress has resumed – including the acquisition of the largest onshore 3D seismic programme in East Africa. The share price has responded. Whilst still significantly undervalued, an upward trend is in motion, with the share price having risen to a little over 1.1p.

Savvy investors will take heart due to the fact that there are clear reasons for the share having become so cheap and - with a little research - they will also be able to see that the key historical issues have been resolved and that the share price does not reflect those improved circumstances, or the very positive future prospects.

Thing is BG, resist as he might, he has secretly come to understand how excellent the prospects are here. No surprise therefore, that he now seeks a Hiawatha! :-)

A cheery thought I had this morning…

A chunk of upcoming newsflow is very likely to come outside of the monthly update cycle.

When we’ve had agreements signed with the Tanzanian authorities, new of those gets published into the public domain by the authorities and media.

*** GSA ***

It sounds as though the GSA could land at any time now:

“Advanced negotiations regarding a Gas Sales Agreement ("GSA") in respect of the Ntorya Gas Field are ongoing with the Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation ("TPDC"). It is expected that the GSA will be agreed and finalised shortly”

*** FULL FIELD DEVELOPMENT PLAN (FDP) ***

From yesterday’s RNS – “A NEAR FINAL Field Development Plan ("FDP") has been submitted and is now with TPDC for final comments, which, upon approval, will lead to the issuance of a Development Licence for the Ntorya Area”.

*** RUVUMA LICENCE ***

From yesterday’s RNS – ”A request for a further extension of the Ruvuma Licence has been submitted, which is EXPECTED TO BE GRANTED SOON”.

<<< “The FDP and resulting Development Licence WILL BE GRANTED up to 18 MONTHS AHEAD OF THE ORIGINAL SCHEDULE” >>>

In addition to those agreements…

*** PIPELINE TO MADIMBA ***

We know that the Tanzanians are moving at pace to construct the pipeline to Madimba. With first gas due in October, there will no doubt be plenty more activity in that area. Again, we’ve been hearing most of about this via Tanzanian authorities and media.

*** KILIWANI SEISMIC ***

Being delivered by Orca. We’ll see updates on this via Orca (though results for our bit will presumably fall into one of Aminex’s monthly updates)

Keep your eyes peeled folks! The next positive developments are just around the corner and could hit us at any time, from any direction! :-)

(1/2)

Hi EveryPenny1,

Please can I suggest a couple of tweaks?

First thing is the estimated revenue. As you say, the farmout documentation explained that a production rate of 140MMscf/d would result in $40million per annum net revenues to Aminex. Based on Kiliwani gas terms ($3.07/mcf).

However, since then, 01 Nov 2022 RNS states “the drilling of up to five additional development wells taking the expected field gas production to rates IN EXCESS OF 140 mmscfd”. In addition, on 25th Nov 2022, Tanzanian media covering the signing of the Ruvuma PSA addendum, quotes The Minister of Energy, January Makamba, as saying the project “is expected to produce approximately 160 million cubic feet per day”

So, I think 160MMscf/d is nearer the mark.

Also, the $3.07 used in the farmout IS now out of date. The 26 May 2022 AGM presentation stated that “2020 average gas price ranged from $3.41/mcf - $4.34/mcf”. In addition, on 25 June 2022, an article in the Tanzanian media confirmed that: “The government of Tanzania is readying to amend the Model Production Sharing Agreements (MPSAs) of 2013 to loosen conditions in the oil and gas sector…The changes will take into consideration the global trends in trade, fuel prices over the past decade and estimates for the next decade”. So we should see increased prices.

With TPDC building the pipeline to the Madimba Gas Processing Plant, Aminex and partners will get a lower price than if they were doing this themselves. Even so, the prices mentioned in the AGM presentation were for 2020 – three years ago (will be nearly four years by the time Ruvuma is in production). It is therefore likely that ARA/Aminex will receive the top end of the 2020 figures, possibly more.

For the basis of calculations, I think it would be fair to assume a ‘near top end figure’ of $4.00/mcf.

Using those figures, net revenues to Aminex would be $59.6m (around £49.6m GBP), not $40m.

A share price value can be estimated by multiplying the stock’s P/E ratio by its EPS. We therefore need to estimate the level of P/E ratio that Aminex may trade at once in production. According to Investopedia “As of January 2022, the average P/E ratio of the oil and gas drilling sector (oil and gas production and exploration) is 34.66”. As mentioned previously, whilst Wentworth Resources has a much smaller asset base, its P/E ratio is useful for comparison. Based on the cash offer price of 32.5p, I calculate that WEN has a P/E of 9.5.

(2/2)

Aminex has a 25% share of an estimated 8.22 TCF (more than 2 TCF net). WEN had a 31.94% interest in 0.423 (0.14 TCF net). Whilst we’re comparing resources with reserves, the Aminex figure is about 15 times larger. Subject to recoverability, larger assets will mean many additional years of revenues. Aminex will also benefit by receiving its share of revenues via its wholly owned subsidiary, Ndovu Resources, and $88.3m of that can be covered by repayment of a loan that Aminex has provided to Ndovu. Plus, there are more than $105k of losses carried forward and that can be offset against future taxable gains or taxable profits. With the free carry, these factors should result in higher profitability for the first few years of production.

The above factors should justify a higher P/E ratio than for Wentworth. Whilst Aminex’s net share of estimated assets is nearly 1485.71% larger than Wentworth’s net share of Mnazi Bay estimated reserves, as a basis for calculations, I would assume a P/E ratio of only ~50% greater at 15. Still less than ½ the industry average.

Again, stock value = P/E Ratio x EPS. Therefore, to calculate stock value, we also need to estimate Earnings Per Share (EPS). EPS equals profit divided by the number of shares. For reasons stated earlier, Aminex should have high profitability in at least the first 5 years of production. The main thing to take from the net revenues is going to be operating costs. These were G&A ($1.66m) and License costs for Kiliwani ($260k). If you double the G&A ($3.32m), add the Kiliwani licence costs ($3.58m), increase that figure by another 25% to be conservative ($4.475m) and convert to GBP = £3.71m. That would equate to an EPS of 0.0118.

A PE of 15 multiplied by an estimated EPS of 0.0118 = a forecast share price of 17.7p

There are obviously a few variables at play here but I would take that as meaning a potential share price of 15p to 20p on full field production.

I hope that helps.

Actually, there is one last point worth addressing. You refer to the Early Production System (EPS) as "Phase 1":

Prosciutto - “there may be some production coming eventually but it won't have a material impact on Aminex. Phase 1 may result in production of 15 MMscf/d (25% of 60 MMscf/d)"

You then say: “The US $140 million was enough to complete the Phase 1 task.”

You are wrong again I’m afraid (but I’m sure you know that). The $140m is for full field development. So, 3D seismic, drill CH1, plus ~5 additional wells, etc. Also the pipeline to Madimba, but as TPDC are doing that, this will most likely mean an underspend on Aminex’s free carry and so those 2024 early revenues will probably be boosted further as per the terms of the farmout “APT will assign one quarter of its share of profit gas to pay the unspent Carry amount until the full $35 million is realised by Aminex”

Prosciutto - “Ruvuma is a totally different species than that of Mnazi Bay”

TRUE. MNAZI BAY IS A SMALL AND DWINDLING RESOURCE. MNAZI BAY GROSS 2P RESERVES 0.423 TCF (WEN 31.95% INTEREST =0.14 TCF). RUVUMA GROSS UNRISKED MEAN GIIP 9.587 TCF (AMINEX 25% INTEREST =2.4 TCF). RESERVES VS RESOURCES DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENT STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT. RUVUMA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 17 TIMES LARGER!

Prosciutto - “there may be some production coming eventually but it won't have a material impact on Aminex. Phase 1 may result in production of 15 MMscf/d (25% of 60 MMscf/d). However, this won't command the level of jubilation everyone is expecting”.

FIRSTLY, ACCORDING TO THE RNS OF 1ST NOV 2022, INITIAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO BE “AT LEAST” 60MMSCFD. SO THAT IS THE MINIMUM EXPECTED. I CALCULATE THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN NET REVENUES FOR AMINEX COMFORTABLY IN EXCESS OF $20m/ANNUM. AROUND $60M NET ON FULL PRODUCTION. PLENTY OF CAUSE FOR JUBILATION THEN. PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT – UNLIKE MNAZI BAY – THIS IS A WORLD CLASS ASSET THAT WILL SUPPORT SUCH REVENUES FOR MANY, MANY YEARS TO COME.

Prosciutto- “Orca Energy, with the "Protected Gas" clause set to expire, is producing at ten times this production level and it is trading at a 30% discount to the cash per share level. Using my EPS estimate for 2022 and 6:1 P/E ratio, Orca Energy should be trading at three times the current price. At best, you can expect the same abysmal market reception for Aminex as both Wentworth and Orca Energy receive”

ORCA ISN’T PRODUCING AT 10 TIMES THHAT PRODUCTION LEVEL. A MONTH AGO, ORCA STATED “we anticipate our gross gas sales to average between 90 and 100 MMscfd during 2023”. THAT’S GROSS (INLDUING THE NON-PROFIT PRODUCTION). THE PROTECTED GAS CLAUSE EXPIRES IN AUG 2024. AFTER WHICH (IN 2025), THE COMPANY ESTIMATES OVERALL PRODUCTION OF <140MMSCFD (SLIDE 12 OF JAN 2023 INVESTOR PRESENTATION)…SO STILL NOT 10 X 15MMSCF/D. REGARDLESS, BY THEN, PRODUCTION A RUVUMA IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE MUCH HIGHER.

SEEMS ORCA AREN’T FULLY CONFIDENT IN THEIR FORECTS EITHER – FEB 2023: “Readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for Orca or any of its wells. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out in respect of the SS-3 well. Accordingly, Orca cautions that the production results for the SS-3 well should be considered to be preliminary”.

IN ADDITION, THE LATEST ORCA ANNUAL REPORT STATES “the productive potential from this field is limited. There is no assurance that the Company will have sufficient deliverability through the existing wells to provide Protected and Additional Gas volumes, and there may be significant capital expenditures associated with any remedial work, workovers, or new drilling required to achieve optimal deliverability. JUST ONE OF A SELECTION OF GLOOMY SOUNDING COMMENTS IN THAT REPORT.

ALSO, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, ORCA HAS A 92% INTEREST IN 0.611 TCF GROSS UNRISKED, OR 0.56 TCF NET. AMINEX NET INTEREST IN RUVUMA IS 2.4TCF – MORE THAN 4 TIMES LARGER. ALSO MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, ORCA HAS A $50M LONG-TERM LOAN (AT 10% INTEREST).
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR ORCA. IN AN INTERVIEW WITH NATURAL GAS WORLD, THE ORCA CEO STATED “Orca’s production-sharing licence expires in 2026, while the protected gas obligation expires in 2024. But thereafter the future is not so clear”.

prosciutto - "A 20% chance for things to fall into place before the cash reserves run out”…”So, let's go with that scenario where the 20% probability does actually pull through as the longshot winner. That's one chance out of five. Everything must fall into place absolutely perfectly”

AMINEX IS FULLY CARRIED FOR FULL FIELD DEVELOPMENT AND HAS CASH TO AT LEAST THE END OF 2024 – RNS OF 01 APR 2022 STATED “The Company is pleased to announce that it has successfully raised approximately £3.3 million (approximately $4.4 million) before expenses to fund the Company to the expected receipt of revenue from first gas production at the Ntorya field, currently projected for end of 2024”

OBVIOUSLY FIRST GAS HAS BEEN BROUGHT FORWARD BY ABOUT 1 YEAR TO EARLY 2024. SO, THERE IS NOW A YEAR OF CONTINGENCY. I EXPECT CH1 TO BE DELAYED ONE LAST TIME, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL AFFECT FIRST GAS.

LARGEST ONSHORE 3D SEISMIC IN EAST AFRICA AQUIRED AND AWAITING RESULTS. NT1 & NT2 ARE COMMERCIALLY VIABLE AND WORK ON THE PIPELINE IS PROGRESSING. AMINEX IS FULLY CARRIED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ENORNOUS RESOURCE.

I’D RESPOND TO THE REST BUT IT IS JUST MEANDERING WHIMSY AND SO THERE IS NO POINT.

This is actually good news for us:

https://panfinance.net/world-bank-gives-311m-to-african-countries/

“The World Bank has entered into a groundbreaking agreement with four nations in West and Central Africa to finance renewable energy projects worth $311 million.”

“The financing will also cover electricity distribution and transmission interventions.”

We know Tanzania plans to export 1,500MW of electricity to the rest of the African continent. A large chunk of that will be from gas fired power stations in Tanzania (new and existing)

All part of the bigger picture. All coming together very nicely

Another article hot off the press. Seems the messaging coming out of Tanzania keeps getting louder and clearer. Growth. Business friendly. Need lots more power. Gas is a very big part of that.

https://www.hydroreview.com/business-finance/tanesco-executive-sees-electricity-bouncing-back-through-hydropower-natural-gas/#gref

“Maharage Chande, executive director of Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited (TANESCO), said”…”in the medium term, TANESCO has planned to conduct tests of one existing unit at the Ubungo III gas fired station and one unit in the Kinyerezi I expansion station will start producing electricity. Both of these will be completed by the end of February 2023”

“He said the solution to electricity problems is in the long-term plans, because when there is no rain, electricity production becomes weak and the availability of gas plants will help electricity production. “Although we have done these repairs and we have had autumn rains, the rains did not rain enough, so we have plans to install gas plants so the rain challenges will not affect us anymore” said Chande”

Oh honestly! The funds are there. Look at this article with quotes from the Energy Minister at end of November when the Ruvuma PSA addendum was signed:

https://mtezamedia.wordpress.com/2022/11/25/mambo-yamenoga-mradi-wa-gesi-mtwara-waziri-makamba-atoa-maagizo-haya-kwa-tpdc/

It includes this:

"Makamba amesema dhamira ya serikali ni kuona mradi huo unakamilika ndani ya miezi 12 na kusema hategemei kusikia mradi huo unachelewa kutokana Fedha"

Google translation:

"Makamba said the government's commitment is to see the project completed within 12 months and said he does not expect to hear the project delayed due to funding"

Article published today. Very, very encouraging:

"The minister said the President’s decision to open up the country to investment had created the need to boost energy generation"

"Yesterday, the Energy Ministry appealed to the international community for help in increasing the country’s energy production in order to meet the rising demand of the country’s growing economy".

“the event seeks to tell the world that Tanzania is once again open for business”

“During the event, Dr Mursali Milanzi, the commissioner for national planning in the Ministry of Finance and Planning, stated that more resources were still required to meet the country’s energy demand as outlined in the Development Vision 2025.”

“We have nearly three years to complete the National Development Vision, 2025 but we have a shortage of 3,983 megawatts on power generation, which is also an opportunity for private investors to chip in,” he said.

“He said the value of government-planned projects in the energy sector from fossil fuels (natural gas, coal, petroleum) and renewable energy (solar and wind) as per the 2025 development blueprint is valued at Sh89 trillion.”

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/makamba-calls-for-private-investment-to-fill-energy-gap-4108750

See section UK5 of the latest TPDC newsletter. The pipeline from Ntorya to Madimba is approved. Route is all planned out. TPDC has been very busy doing valuations for compensation. 253 citizens to be compensated. Consultation sessions already held with those affected. Payments to be made swiftly.

https://tpdc.co.tz/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Newslatter-January2023-7.pdf

Google Translation:

Head of Mtwara District Hon. Dastan Kyobya has given these instructions during the opening of the assessment exercise of the citizens who were assessed for their areas IN ORDER TO APPROVE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE 35KM LONG GAS PIPELINE PRJECT FROM NTORYA (Kisimani) TO MADIMBA at the natural gas processing plant where the total number of citizens 253 will be compensated.

"I should ask the Leaders of all the Wards that are going through the pipeline to make sure you manage the exercise properly, go through their information name by name, person by person and chapter by chapter so that after payment there will be no challenge of complaints from legitimate parties," said Kyobya.

In addition, Nanguruwe Ward Councillor. Hon. Patrick Wayziman Simwinga congratulated TPDC for carrying out the exercise of valuation and review of citizens' assets in the areas visited by the pipe developer in a transparent manner and including holding public meetings to provide preliminary education on the valuation of citizens' assets including land, houses, farms and produce.

"I congratulate TPDC for conducting the exercise, it has helped to eliminate conflicts between the citizens who are involved with this project because if the conflicts were not resolved in the initial stages as you have done, TPDC would have caused the implementation of the project to be hindered. I should also ask TPDC to make the compensation payment on time so that the citizens who rejected the project can find other places to do their economic activities," said Simwinga.

And the Senior Civil Officer from TPDC Mrs. Happy Mwaseba said the natural gas pipeline project from Ntorya to Madimba is expected to provide various economic opportunities including short-term jobs for the people in the villages that have been passed by the pipeline during the implementation of the project including the opportunity to provide various services to workers who will be involved in the construction activities.

The natural gas pipeline project with a length of 35 kilometers from Ntorya to Madimba and touching 5 wards and 13 villages within the Lake Division located in Mtwara District is expected to cost 70 billion shillings.

A supervisor for the build of a pipeline. Being managed out of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A 9 month project from design, through to completion of build and project close.

Any ideas?

https://www.airswift.com/jobs/plant-building-supervisor-1184338?hsLang=en

What gives me faith, given past delays, that we will have first production and revenues in early 2024?

Following the change of President in March 2021, the Tanzanian government has gone from being anti foreign investors to strongly in favour of them. In less than two years, Samia Hassan has taken a broom to her cabinet and swept aside anyone that would stand in the way of progress.

In this period, agreements have been made to export natural gas from Tanzania to Uganda, Kenya Zambia and beyond. Her government has also re-invigorated the long-stalled negotiations for the $30Bn LNG facility, with the Host Government Agreement expected to be signed in Feb.

Under the previous president, Aminex and ARA saw about 10 deadlines pass before the farmout was finally approved. When it was approved, the JV partners couldn’t progress without renewal of Ruvuma licence. In Aug 2021 (~5 months after Samia Hassan came to power), the licence extension was awarded. A month later, the government agreed to the award of the 3D seismic programme for Ruvuma. The following month, the long-standing tax dispute was sorted and the month after that the monies were paid. Shortly after that, the JV partners had started the largest onshore 3D seismic acquisition programme in East Africa. Other operators too are finally able to move forward with projects – including PAET with their 3D seismic programme, which will soon give us some fresh new data over Kiliwani.

The demand is there. We have a very well capitalised and experienced operator. The new Tanzanian government is clearly keen to get on with it. There have still been some delays but, as evidenced above, things are happening. It’s not just a feeling. Not just rhetoric in news articles. Plenty of tangible progress.

It takes time to change a government from totally intransigent and obstructive to collaborative and delivery focused. That change is underway though. It therefore seems likely that delays will become less frequent and smaller. Though as mentioned the other day, I do expect one last short delay to CH1 as I think there may have been a challenge with procuring the rig (just a hunch). I don’t expect that to impact the wider timeline though. As I'm not a day trader, I'm not at all concerned about that possibility.

Other points that should give confidence – there are already two commercially viable wells (NT1 and NT2), the Madimba gas processing plant is already there and has capacity, the required pipeline is a short distance away and so not a major obstacle. All very doable then.

Hope that helps.

That's quite a list RJ! I wouldn't be surprised if the drill shifts out by a small amount (and for one last time) but with that list of news due in the next few months, I'm not concerned. Shareholders will be very well rewarded