RE: Takeover not the biggest risk30 Oct 2018 09:20
Hi concious, thanks for your comment re my posting of SA news, it's nice to know my efforts are appreciated.
I've never been to SA and it's not on my bucket list either, altho I'm told by friends that I really should go because I don't know what I'm missing. Perhaps I'll go once my BMN shares allow me to travel 1st class and stay in 5* hotels, but apart from that I don't think it'll happen, there's too many other places I'd rather see first.
My knowledge of SA is down to the research I did before I bought BMN a few years ago, and I saw that the political situation at that time was THE major risk to my investment. In fact it was downright scary, an I became an avid reader of SA political news in order to protect my investment. But the investment case was compelling and got even stronger after the change of direction into vanadium and that's why I'm still here and still buying when I can.
Since Cyril came to power the political risks are much reduced altho they do still exist but, compared to the Zuma years, it's sunshine and roses time.
However, that's not to say there's no risk now. SA is no stranger to political killings so there's a low risk that Ramaphosa could be assassinated, but that risk is no different in SA to many other countries eg the good ol' USA.
A greater risk, to my mind, would be if the ANC failed to win sufficient votes for a majority in next years elections. In that case, they are likely to form a coalition with the EFF, a radical extreme left wing party who already appear to have some influence over the ANC. If that happens, who knows what may transpire, but I suspect that expropriation without compensation wouldn't be the peaceful and orderly process that Cyril wants, with all that entails.
However, Julius Malema, the leader of the EFF and Floyd Shivambu, his deputy, have both been publicly exposed in the last few months as being involved in serious levels of corruption and crime, and charges have been brought against them by the largest opposition party, the DA, so hopefully they won't be around at election time.
There are, of course, other risks but no more than in many other emerging countries. I hope that helps to set your mind a little more at ease.
Anyway, in other news, I see that we're now blue, so onwards and upwards! :-)