Berenberg rates HUM at 47p3 Jun 2020 17:06
Berenberg view: Following the difficult start to the year, the company made significant improvements throughout 2019 and reported its first profitable year for the business. Hummingbird had already reported several key financial figures such total group sales and net debt; however, it is positive to see earnings and profit come in better than our forecasts. We are also encouraged that production guidance is maintained; however, the company flagged continued cost pressures from COVID-19, which may increase AISC by USD100/oz for the year. While this is a slight negative, we believe the relatively high strip nature of the deposits at Yanfolila means that Hummingbird is likely to benefit from lower diesel prices in the form of cost tailwinds. In addition, given that we believe the gold price remains well supported for the year, we expect little impact on FCF generation potential. Overall, the deleveraging story remains intact, with a net cash position expected by the end of 2020 (we forecast net cash of USD24m for end-2020). Furthermore, the 2020 exploration programme is providing encouraging drilling results, which are expected to prove up underground resources at Komana East, along with targeting new greenfield deposits.
? We value Hummingbird on an SOTP basis, with a DCF valuation for Yanfolila and Dugbe.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0m09v1f1r87e8yt/Hummingbird_06-2020-03_Flash.pdf?dl=0