Member Info for tvh123

@RunS4 is bang on - the market has no interest in future plc at the moment. Given the little liquidity, I suspect there will be a few more opportunities to bank 10% gains buying under £3 and selling around £3.30 until a real catalyst appears

The CMA outcome was released on wednesday morning and this subsequently dropped below £3 so todays rise has nothing to with it either.

The next real catalyst is likely to be more detail on the following quote on the earnings call from Shargeel: "We are actively progressing options to realize value for shareholders from brands or assets that do not drive our strategy. I wanted to note that we are very focused on creating value, and I look forward to updating you when I can share more specific information."

Barclays Capital are just using swaps to hedge demand from their clients. So Barclays holds the voting rights, while the client receives the financial performance through the swap contract.

Https://owners.wise.com/news-releases/news-release-details/wise-europe

We are currently working with the Brussels prosecutor to respond to queries about our business, as we routinely do with regulators and law-enforcement authorities. His office's enquiries are still incomplete and no specific findings have been shared with us to date. As such, it would be speculative for us to comment on any allegations. We will continue to engage with the Brussels prosecutor's office if and when any specific findings are made available to us.

Wise Europe is established in Belgium, from where we serve the rest of Europe through the EU passporting system for financial services. Consequently, law enforcement requests throughout the EEA are currently directed to Belgium, a different set-up to those financial institutions that operate a branch or local entity network and where law enforcement requests would therefore remain with the respective authorities in each country.

All financial institutions are expected to respond to requests for information from law enforcement agencies and submit suspicious activity reports to the relevant authorities 一 these are a normal part of operations and are not, in themselves, indicative of non-compliance with anti-money laundering requirements or of any wrongdoing.

Market responded to the sensationalist headline

Total capitulation in a note that said nothing that wasnt publicly known. A gift!

From Bill Ackman's latest shareholder letter - articulates the market dynamics we see brilliantly...

The stock market has increasingly been characterized by a growing percentage of the market capitalization of

companies being held by effectively permanent owners, principally index funds. We believe that the growing index

ownership as a percentage of stock market float has increased the impact that short-term, highly leveraged investors

can have on price discovery as they now comprise a growing percentage of the market cap and daily trading of companies, and are important marginal buyers and sellers of a security. These shorter-term investors – which include so-called market-neutral and quantitative funds – use large amounts of margin, derivative, and total return swap leverage in their strategies. As highly leveraged market participants, these investors’ tolerance for mark-to-market losses is small, which contributes to stock price volatility as they can become effectively forced sellers when companies disappoint, even in the short term.

This phenomenon of massive short-term volatility in even the largest, most well-capitalized and most closely followed companies has only increased over the last two years. As a result, the stock market at times feels ‘broken;’ that is, stocks can trade in, what appears to us, a completely irrational fashion in the short term when a company fails to meet and/or exceed analysts’ or investors’ expectations. While short-term disappointments can be a harbinger of future underperformance, the degree of downward volatility in many cases appears irrational – well in excess of reasonably anticipated potential intrinsic value risk or impairment due to the potential disappointment. In many cases, the market has responded in a negative way to news that we viewed favorably, and with the passage of time, the initial negative market reaction has often proven to be an overreaction.

We believe that current market dynamics are due to the ever-growing percentage of capital controlled by highly-leveraged market participants who have extremely short-term objectives, and are incentivized or required to exit when certain stop loss triggers are hit due to margin and/or total-return swap leverage and/or risk limits, amplified by the reduction in float due to growing index ownership.

The market increasingly appears like a casino where money is wagered over the course of a day, hours, minutes or even seconds. This mismatch between stocks, which represent perpetuity interests in businesses that are inherently long-term assets, and their temporary ‘owners,’ creates growing opportunities for the patient investor with stable capital. Because of our permanent capital structure, the increasingly volatile market dynamics will likely continue to offer us occasionally extraordinary opportunities to buy the highest quality durable growth companies in the world at bargain prices.

Https://pressgazette.co.uk/marketing/future-leveragess-high-visibility-on-chatgpt-by-offering-geo-as-a-service/

Everyone seems to have forgotten Kevin's comments with the FY results:

"In the last few months we have launched a series of initiatives, with encouraging early performance. These span areas including monetisation through content creators, an evolution of our ecommerce proposition, and driving even more direct engagement with audiences.

In the age of AI, our trusted, authoritative and specialist brand content is highly visible for audiences across Large Language Models, and we have already started monetising our presence in this area. The opportunity is significant.

Based on my over twenty years' experience at Future, I am more confident than ever in the inherent value of our platform and proposition, and we are focused on unlocking long-term value for our shareholders."

I doubled my position today. Shorts are now playing a game of chicken.

So much noise and pontification.

What powers the AI tools? Data. So who has the pricing power? The owners of proprietary data and content. Im more than happy to take positions at attractive valuations until the wider market wises up.

Just trying to educate you on the mechanics of how share buy backs work.

I repeat, the likely scenario is DEC and Peel Hunt have agreed that Peel Hunt will only buy shares up to a price that equates to the average of the last x days. That sets an upper limit for the buy back.

Good luck.

The buy back is being run by Peel Hunt, completely independently of DEC. A price limit for repurchasing shares will have been agreed (e.g. 105% of the average market price). It's not some nonsensical conspiracy to prop up the stock price.

@mt150

The $10m contingent payment is based on the performance of the North America Business during the 2024 financial year (as stated in the RNS).

There are only 3 months of trading left and the full earnout will only be received if the North America business exceeds current market expectations. According to Cavendish, FY24 expectations are revenue of $24m and adjusted EBITDA of $4.8m.

The conservative assumptions and logic are all laid out in my post to arrive at a base case for what we can expect. Higher performance related payments and/or lower liabilities to settle / costs incurred could lead to a further $7m - $10m (i.e.2-3p per share)

Lets start again.

Net cash at 30 June was just over $19m. A further $4m was paid in September for Saturday Down South. $10m was received in October, $7.5m cash consideration is due shortly, plus a potential $5m earnout for the European business. Following today's annoucement, a further $18m is due (after transaction costs) plus a potential $10m earnout from the North American business.

Lets assume 80% of the earnout from the European business ($4m) and only 40% of the earnout from the North American business ($4m) is forthcoming. That's $58.5m. Lets say 10% of that plus any cash generated since June is lost on transition costs, outstanding liabilities etc. That's $53m available for distribution or around 15.5p per share at todays exchange rate

Forgot to include the $4m in deferred consideration that was paid in Septrmbrr for Saturday Down South. So cash available for distribution of at least $44m or 13p per share.

Net cash at 30 June was just over $19m. A further $7.5m cash consideration is due shortly, plus a potential $5m earnout for the European business. Following today's annoucement, a further $18m is due (after transaction costs) plus a potential $10m earnout from the North AMerican business.

Lets assume 80% of the earnout from the European business ($4m) and only 40% of the earnout from the North American business ($4m) is forthcoming. That's $52.5m. Lets say 10% of that plus any cash generated since June is lost on transition costs, outstanding liabilities etc. That's $47m available for distribution or around 14p per share at todays exchange rate.

Thanks gdog - just realised my error in the previous post. And yes, Ben Edelmen and the targeted nature of that attack was very different to what seems to be happening here over the last few months.

The worm will turn sooner or later, as it did just before Q3 results were announced. I am not one to look a gift horse in the mouth so have limit orders set down to £4.50.

Clamp down on what? It's very difficult to prove market manipulation, and a falling share price is not evidence of some grand shorting conspiracy.

Robinhood was fined due to the harm suffered by its customers due to system outages (that resulted from the meme stock mania). There was no cause to fine the hedge funds shorting Gamestop - they were short because the business a disaster.

It's within the Board's gift to arrest the fall - put their hands in their pocket and use some of the generous compensation they've been receiving to buy stock, and follow that up with delivering Q on Q CTV growth in Q4, and smash the very cautious revenue guidance they've offered.

The wild conspiracy theories are trotted out on all small caps when the price goes backwards. According to Fintel data, 0.2% of the float on the NASDAQ has been sold short.

And that's on top of the base salary increases they were granted. The compensation committee just aren't fit for purpose and Jones, Klinger Audit and Parnell all need to be given the boot

It gets worse, https://investors.tremorinternational.com/static-files/c1db9fcb-078b-480c-839f-8734c2f5dc45

In recognition of the special contribution of the executives to the U.S. Dual Listing process, a special IPO bonus in the event the U.S. Dual Listing is successfully completed, of $500,000 to each of Mr Druker, Mr Carmi and Mr Niri, subject to the discretion of the Remuneration Committee