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Repair work is done but fighting around khartoum preventing starting exports for the time being.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2581705-south-sudan-unable-to-restart-dar-blend-crude-exports

Plus our Nigerian MD has recently been participating in Nigerian power and infrastructure conference

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chapel-hill-denham_deliveringresults-chapelhilldenham-chapelhilldenhaminthenews-activity-7209557057794985984-vZxv?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Buying a power plant might not be as far fetched

Seems like 3 new companies have been incorporated yesterday

1) SAVANNAH ENERGY POWER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Company number 15803571

2) SAVANNAH ENERGY POWER LIMITED

Company number 15803657

3) SAVANNAH ENERGY POWER DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED Company number 15803828

Could we be buying a power plant the federal government in Nigeria are selling 5 power plants in Nigeria for circa $1.15bn in total of which one of the power plant being sold is the calabar one for circa $260m dollars. Bid winners to be announced soon I wonder whether we are buying the calabar power plant considering we supply gas to it already.

https://businessday.ng/energy/article/nigeria-seals-1bn-deal-on-five-power-plants/

I guess the more subtle question to ask at the AGM if anyone get the opportunity would be how confident is the company in successfully executing it's hydrocarbon inorganic growth strategy within the next 6 months..........................................................

Scotpak - 100% agree I am all for our current inflight business to be completed. I was more referencing if SS was not to complete than are there and other African oil and gas assets of size which can be successfully closed I don’t mean Just SPAs I mean closed as in with approvals.

Clearly African oil and gas M&A is proving to be a challenge and if inorganic growth is going to be part of our strategy than should they be broadening their horizons beyond Africa that’s all I meant.

But if all our inflight stuff successfully lands than I would be happy to just see that run smoothly for a few years and totally happy with that

Looks like the Gabonese government have completed the acquisition by finance from Gunvor looks like Vitol lost the battle of the traders. It was quite competitive as Vitol, Gunvor and Triagura wanted to finance

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-25/gunvor-helped-finance-gabon-s-deal-to-buy-oil-producer-assala?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_source=twitter&embedded-checkout=true

Fair play to the Gabonese government for closing this and getting the funds to complete.

Looks like Assala Gabon is now out the question for Savannah.

I wonder how many approval worthy deals are out there in Africa between stalled approvals and resource nationalism can’t be many if any.

Folks I can’t make the AGM as I have a work meeting. But can someone ask at the AGM if deals outside of Africa will be considered I understand it goes against our brand but clearly African deals are proving difficult to complete

As much as AI article suggests progress has been few and far between, I am hoping the reality on the ground is very much different let's not all jump the gun at the first instance, and trust the company to deliver either south Sudan or other operational updates that add significant value.

One would imagine IMF and World Bank favour our deal as it opens up transparency in the south sudan oil sector. However it remains to be seen the power and influence they have over the SS government and president kiir to approve our deal thus opening up greater IMF and world bank funding through oil sector transparency for south sudan.

Sadly I can't attend the AGM but the serious question around what is the strategy if the company complete all workstreams and don't receive government approval.

How long are they prepare to wait out or will they wait until they can complete another acquisition before walking away from south sudan ?

Reading the africa intelligence article doesn't seem like we have president kiir support.

"The international community's insistence on transparency is not going down well in Juba. This has been one of the main sticking points in Petronas's sale of its South Sudanese oil assets to British firm Savannah Energy (AI, 20/10/21). Salva Kiir is bitterly opposed to this $1.25bn deal, which requires some financial transparency from Juba."

Strained economy

Despite the US sanctions slapped on him in 2021, Bol Mel, one of the architects of the "cash for oil" deal with HBK, has remained within Kiir's inner circle. He is a frequent traveller to Dubai, where his wife lives, and has been staying at the city's opulent Jumeirah Beach Hotel since mid-May. An influential board member of the state-owned Nilepet and Kiir's right-hand man on a range of issues, including oil, he is still negotiating the HBK deal.

Concerned about the potential consequences of such an agreement on South Sudan's fragile economy, major financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are keeping a close eye on the situation. South Sudan, already dependent on these entities, is seeking a new disbursement of $250m from the IMF to help it cope with its economic crisis, on top of January's emergency injection of $114m.

In April, South Sudan's auditor general, Steven Kiliona Wondu, reported that that money had been spent opaquely. In May, the World Bank and the IMF established conditions for an eventual new loan, just as South Sudan is weeks away on defaulting on a $1bn debt to the Qatar National Bank (QNB).

Resisting transparency

The international community's insistence on transparency is not going down well in Juba. This has been one of the main sticking points in Petronas's sale of its South Sudanese oil assets to British firm Savannah Energy (AI, 20/10/21). Salva Kiir is bitterly opposed to this $1.25bn deal, which requires some financial transparency from Juba. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September, Chol, the then finance minister, even announced having made a counter-offer to the Malaysian company - with the support of Caltech Investment, a New Jersey-based firm with no apparent financing capacity - before backtracking.

South Sudan is now caught between a rock and a hard place. It is on the brink of bankruptcy, as 80% of its oil exports were cut off in February after the pipeline connecting Upper Nile oil fields to the Red Sea was damaged by the war in neighbouring Sudan (AI, 03/06/24). Faced with the risk of such an economic calamity, which could directly challenge his leadership, Kiir is looking for an exit strategy. This situation is being exploited by "Sheikh" Hamad and is of great concern to South Sudan's partners, especially the World Bank and IMF. Contacted by Africa Intelligence, government spokesperson and communications minister Michael Makuei did not respond to our questions, and Bol Mel could not be reached.

Misleading acronym

In December 2020, the Israeli Megiddo Financial Intelligence agency exposed "Sheikh" Hamad while investigating him as a potential 50% buyer of Beitar Jerusalem Football Club for $32m. The agency discovered that HBK Group consisted of companies purportedly operating in sectors such as cryptocurrency and renewable energy, but which in practice did very little. The network included the Arab Investment Development Authority (AIDA), whose initials seem misleadingly close to those of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA). The Israeli press published some of Megiddo's findings. These revelations sparked outrage in the royal cabinet, which reprimanded the "sheikh", accusing him of "sullying" the name of the ruling family.

With HBK, which could also be mistaken for a group owned by Qatar's ruling family, "Sheikh" Hamad has deceived several companies in Asia and Europe since 2019. In the United Kingdom, he co-directed two firms with Sencer Sekvet, a Turkish Cypriot who was sentenced to seven years behind bars for fraud in the UK in 2013. He also acted in connection with two Dubai-based Iranian businessmen brothers, Rahmatollah Bakhtari Musa and Hedayatollah Bakhtari Musa, whom US financial investigators suspect of providing oil services in violation of sanctions against Tehran.

False investments

All three are linked to several cases of alleged fraud. In 2019, AIDA falsely announced $5bn worth of energy investments in Bangladesh and, through an ad hoc company, STC-Energy, $2bn in Ukraine. Anastasiya Abramova, Hedayatollah Bakhtari Musa's wife - and alleged frontwoman - is Ukrainian and, via the Marshall Islands-registered Amar Offshore, is the sole beneficial owner of STC-Energy.

Abramova managed AIDA for a while and is linked to several financial vehicles established in the Marshall Islands, Cyprus, and Ukraine. Some of these are suspected by the US and Swiss financial watchdogs of being instruments of massive fraud. The Iranian-Ukrainian couple is, alongside Russian-Swiss financier Aleksei Korotaev (AI, 02/05/23), caught up in a case of alleged embezzlement from clients of Helin International, a defunct wealth management company now frozen in the UAE (AI, 08/05/23). Korotaev is still the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by Switzerland, which does not rule out doing the same for Abramova.

In Latvia, the Bakhtari Musa brothers targeted a small banking institution, the Baltic International Bank, which in March 2022 saw the majority of its shareholding fall into the hands of "Sheikh" Hamad. Nine months later, the Latvian Finance and Capital Market Commission (FKTK) decided to close the bank following a raid by special forces and an investigation into a series of financial malpractices and alleged laundering of suspicious Russian funds. Korotaev, Abramova and Hedayatollah Bakhtari Musa all declined to respond to our questions.

Spotlight | South Sudan

The secret story of the fake sheikh behind a €12bn deal with Salva Kiir's government

A preliminary oil contract signed by South Sudan with an obscure company based in the United Arab Emirates raises concerns about potential fraud. Behind this entity lies a man suspected to be implicated in international financial crimes.

On paper, it is one of the largest oil deals recorded in Africa during the last few years. At the end of 2023, South Sudan signed a preliminary contract with a small Dubai-based company called HBK DOP for a €12bn loan to be repaid in oil. The deal effectively gives the company a 20-year cut-price monopoly on all of South Sudan's oil, a commodity that accounts for 90% of the country's revenue.

Behind this set-up is a man who presents himself as a relative of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan (aka MbZ) even if the extent of his royal connection is just that his great-grandfather was a distant cousin to the federation's founder Zayed ben Sultan al-Nahyan. He is not actually a member of the ruling Zayed dynasty but comes from the Nahyan clan, who are very distant cousins. Moreover, none of his immediate family hold any official positions in the UAE government. He was born Adil Al Otaiba, after his mother Muza al-Otaiba, and was given permission to change his patronym, and he uses the new one in his business dealings. His ubiquitous use of the honorific "sheikh" is therefore widely seen as unmerited.

The name of the businessman's company is derived from the initials of his adopted moniker, Hamad Bin Khalifa Bin Mohammed Al Nahyan, suffixed with "DOP" for "Department of Projects".

He lives with his wife and four children in a modest residence in Abu Dhabi and seldom appears in town or attends Dubai dinner parties. His signature - as "Sheikh Hamad" - is found at the bottom of the three-page document ratified in December by South Sudan's then finance minister, Bak Barnaba Chol. That deal, whose final terms are still under negotiation, is being overseen by Benjamin Bol Mel, one of the most influential advisers to South Sudanese President Salva Kiir.

Embellished resumés

Juba seems not to have conducted much due diligence into HBK DOP, a mysterious company that barely exists (even its website is a work in progress), and behind which hides a multitude of businessmen with largely exaggerated CVs. These include Kenyan national Anwar Majid Hussein, who once moved in opposition leader Raila Odinga's business circles; a Malian self-styled banker, Yoro Mohamed Diallo; a Malian former minister; and a Greek lawyer.

In their business dealings, all of them flaunt dubious references and sometimes made-up job histories with fictitious companies. Contacted by Africa Intelligence, neither HBK DOP nor most of its associates responded to our inquiries.

Komakino - That's interesting so you believe that admission document and sign off are a joint event i.e come to the market all at once wrapped up.

On your point around wait it out as long as it takes is probably not that simple, one would imagine that SS government stalling can outlast AIM pressure to come to the market, So I still believe a choice will have to be made alternatively the only way they can truly wait it out is if they are advanced on another transaction and intend to complete that this year

Well one thing is clear we are not going to get an update on the SS Deal before the AGM. When we get to 28th June AGM it would be interesting to see the tone on the SS Deal clearly they will have to be careful as to what they can say but the tone will be interesting as to assess the likelihood of deal completing..............................

An interesting question for folks and I would be interested to gather thoughts from the Board if everything else is complete in the next few weeks except for formal written approval from government, do you think Savannah will publish an admission document or are they willing to walkaway from the deal after 20 months of progressing all other workstreams and not releasing an admission document ?

We know there is not a formal requirement to complete deal and release an admission document but it was out of preference that AK chooses not too ?

Looks like End of July for next update

17 June 2024

Savannah Energy PLC

("Savannah" or "the Company")

South Sudan Acquisition Update

Further to its announcement on 17 May 2024, the Company advises that its ordinary shares remain suspended from trading on AIM while it advances the various workstreams associated with completion of the proposed transaction and is working towards publishing an AIM Admission Document in Q3 2024. A further update on transaction progress, and associated matters, is expected to be made within the next six weeks.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SAVE/south-sudan-acquisition-update/16521535

Https://x.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1802059399411941704

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/south-sudan-under-pressure-to-disclose-oil-production-deals--4658790#google_vignette

Agreed tier nothing to get to excited about just yet we are still a long way away from this being resolved. Personally I see this going all the way to December 2025 and arbitration anything sooner in savannah's favour will be most welcome but i am not counting on it.

We should stick to activities we can control and let chad play out it's natural course

Highly likely untrue but here you are anyway

https://x.com/africanledger/status/1801838296512807344

5) Getting some additional renewable deals agreed would not be earth-shattering but would be nice to grow the pipeline in that respect and take us to 1GW+ in H2 2024.

6) Although highly unlikely, it would be nice to get some engagement from the Chad government in H2 2024, and one would assume an out-of-court settlement should be the best outcome for all parties involved, rather than waiting for an official ruling in 18 months especially as Government of the Republic of Chad has acknowledged SCI’s and SMIL’s right to compensation. We are claiming $1bn plus but if we get circa $500 million savannah should take the money and be done with it.

I think it's fair to say the past 18 months of suspension and the release of the accounts have shown the business is resilient, and we have probably got the worst of our problems out of the way. I truly believe the next 18 months is where we truly unlock ourselves.

Going back to when we come back to the market, I said it previously, and I will say it again: we come back when we complete an enlarged deal, whether it's South Sudan or another.

My one ask of the company is that I am willing to give more execution time if they are able to keep the engagement and communication flow going. I have to say the past 18 months have been poor in that respect, but I am hoping we have turned a corner in this area now.

Let's see what the next few weeks and months bring, but to start off with, we have the AGM in 2 weeks, which should be interesting. It will surely be a forum for investors to air their concerns and frustrations to date, but here's to hoping Savannah is able to provide the reassurance of its current in-flight and future strategy with conviction and poise.

It's a two-way relationship, and Savannah needs to hold up their end of the bargain now and come good, especially in the context of the patience and understanding of shareholders that they have had to date and probably will still require.