Member Info for TrustILie

Caution - you could be write resumption of exports will probably coincide with changes in ownership to JOC's, as it currently stands and in the absence of any credible information one would assuming it's almost as good as certain that CNPC will probably take over Petronas share of operations in the fields.

Brilliant article covering all reasons why the dal between Shell and Renaissance fell through, gives a great insight into what the Nigerian government is looking for and not looking for

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2024/10/16/shells-1-3bn-oil-assets-sale-not-in-waiting-room-as-fg-rejects-renaissances-bid/

Caution: I continue to conduct my own research using online and offline sources and my networks, building up my personal research on Savannah for reference and information. What I'm willing to share is that overall, I'm not worried about our growth story and truly believe we've gotten over the hump. Whatever price we come back at, even if it's materially lower than our suspended price as some doomsayers have alluded to, I'll view this as an opportunity and will be a buyer.

Regarding my posting activity, I haven't been as active for a few reasons:

1) I've been busy with work recently, limiting my posting time.

2) After observing some exchanges over the last few weeks, I've restrained myself from posting. Even positive posts could potentially turn this board into a forum for ugly exchanges, and people might think I'm driving a narrative. As a result, I've somewhat disengaged. I understand this isn't due to anyone's bad intentions but is purely driven by the long suspension period. I can only say: trust Savannah to do the right thing. The more patient we are, the better our chances of returning on a stronger and firmer footing—something all genuine shareholders would want unless, of course, your intentions differ, which people are entitled to have.

As for some positive news I'm willing to share for now: There was a brilliant bit of PR from the Nigerian gas minister this week, visiting the Accugas facility. If you look at the two latest Instagram posts on his account:

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, visited Savannah Energy's facility in Eket, Akwa Ibom State on Monday. Savannah Energy's Managing Director, Mr. Pade Durotoye, received Ekpo, briefed him on the company's operations, and conducted a tour of its gas facilities.

The Minister assured Savannah Energy of the Federal Government's support to enhance gas production, aligning with Nigeria's aspirations for increased domestic use and exports. Ekpo also emphasized the importance of a conducive business environment, expressing his willingness to partner with the company to achieve this goal.

There are two posts: one is a photo op, and one is a video. The video is particularly interesting. What stood out to me is when the minister says, "Today we are talking about CNG and LPG," and "On the legacy debt, we have gotten the approval of the president to repay the legacy debt. What's left now is how payment is made, which will increase investment and encourage producers to produce more gas."

It's clear that with the CPF completion, our Accugas story will only get bigger, and we are going through a step change in Nigeria. What's evident is that either through Accugas or another gas project in Nigeria, there is more to come in the country.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Gas minister instagram account - https://www.instagram.com/ekperikpeekpo?igsh=bms0YXpkMjNtcDI3

Seplat moving strongly as they are about to get sign off on there Nigeria Transaction somewhat 3yrs or so later. Seplat was around 85p when we suspended for south sudan deal over 100% returns since and on closing i can see it making it's way towards £3.

I truly believe our growth will path will be similar to seplat albeit we are circa 6 - 12 months behind schedule in our growth story this time next year, I firmly believe we will be a different beast as frustrating as it may be I am willing to give AK more time to deliver and get through the next few months if it means we can come back in good shape, if you are a proper shareholder than I am sure you will want the same, our patience now and going forward will be rewarded.

Zengas - Thanks for confirming on the debt position being roughly $423.2m if the $109.9m fx losses would have been received prior to 30 June 2024. We are in October now so it's likely that that will be received in H2 2024 so could have been received already or by close of year. Obviously it will only be reflected in the full year accounts next year.

Taking that $423.2m net debt number into account it's important to remember that $126.7m is related to Chad/Doba deal and a significant portion is non-recourse so $423.2m - $126.7m = $296.5m purely Nigeria related debt, this would be converted to long dated naira bonds should further increase liquidity. not to mention the USD roil revenues of the Sipec acquisition accelerating our net debt position

Interesting New Hire from cnooc international, predominately experienced in FPSO type projects could be looking at something offshore, would certainly be much more welcome than onshore projects.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/daryon-shahbahrami/

Savannah Energy reported H1 FY24 financial results yesterday evening. The release highlights the strong cash flow generation of its core Nigerian gas business, while emphasising progress around its ambitions for the Renewable Energy Division. FY24 guidance is unchanged. The company’s shares remain suspended, with management confirming that it remains in active discussions around a potential transaction in South Sudan. A further update on this is now due in early November. H1 FY24 results. Average gross production in Nigeria was 24.4kboe/d (down 4% YoY, but an 11% improvement on H2 FY23). “Total Revenues” were $124m (down 11% YoY) due to the phasing of gas deliveries under some GSAs and a differing customer mix. However, management has emphasised the “Total Income” metric, which was $233m (up 40% YoY) and includes “Other operating income” related to the re-billing of foreign exchange losses. FY24 revenue guidance continues to focus on the “Total Revenues” metric and is unchanged at >$245m. Adj. EBITDA was $92m (down 15% YoY) and also excludes “Other operating income”. Savannah generated operating cash flows before working capital of $166m (flat YoY), underlining the strength of its Nigerian gas business. It ended the period with net debt of $533m, a 13% increase since endFY23A, primarily due to the devaluation of Nigerian Naira cash balances. Steady oil & gas operating update. The gas compression project at Uquo remains on track to be completed during FY24 and within the $45m budget. Savannah is planning for further development activity, which could see additional Uquo gas wells drilled in FY25 and FY26. There is no new news on Stubb Creek, with the proposed $61.5m acquisition of the 49% non-operated interest it doesn’t own scheduled to complete before year-end. In Niger, Savannah is mobilising long lead equipment into the country in preparation for a planned four well testing programme at the R3 East development. Clear ambitions for Renewable Energy Division. Savannah has reiterated its target of having 1GW+ of renewable energy projects in motion by year-end, versus the current portfolio of c.700MW. The company expects to announce the entry into further projects in the coming months. It now has signed agreements for the IFC and the US International Development Finance Corporation to fund two-thirds of pre-construction development costs on its 250MW Parc Eolien de la Tarka wind farm in Niger.

Upcoming Catalysts: In Nigeria, the gas compression project at the Uquo CPF is on track to be completed in H2/24, enabling Savannah, through its Accugas midstream subsidiary, to increase gas production volumes in the years ahead. In H2/24, Savannah is expected to complete the Stubb Creek acquisition – paving the way for the commencement of a de-bottlenecking programme, which is expected to increase production by 135% to 4.7kboepd within 12 months of completion of the acquisition.

Savannah’s Nigerian business continues to deliver strong and consistent operating performance, with production in H1/24 averaging 24.4kboepd – a 3% increase compared with FY23 (23.6kboepd) and Total Income up 40% to US$233.4m (H1/23: US$167.6m). Following the termination of the Petronas South Sudan SPA, discussions continue regarding an alternative transaction structure for the assets, with Savannah due to provide a further update by or in early November. Savannah has also reported strong progress in the development of its renewable energy business, with up to 696MW of renewable energy projects in motion at period-end, and has hinted at potentially more announcements to come in renewables prior to year-end, putting the Company on target to meet its 1GW+ goal by the end of 2024.

South Sudan Transaction Ongoing: Following the termination of the original sale and purchase agreement with Petronas International Corp for the acquisition of its entire oil and gas business in South Sudan, Savannah remains in active discussions with the relevant parties regarding an alternative transaction structure for the same Petronas assets. Savannah will provide a further update by or in early November.

Solid H1/24 Performance: Average gross daily production increased by 3% to 24.4kboepd. Total Income increased by 40% to US$233.4m comprising Total Revenues of US$123.5m and Other operating income of US$109.9m related to the billing of foreign exchange losses incurred by Accugas as it converted historic Naira cash received into US dollars. Adjusted EBITDA, which excludes Other operating income, decreased slightly to US$91.6m but when included shows a 47% yoy increase to US$201.5m. Operating profit was US$152.3m, 130% higher than H1 2023. Profit from continuing operations was stable at US$166.3m. Net debt at the end of the period was US$533.1m (31 December 2023: US$473.7m), with the decrease in gross debt offset by the devaluation on Naira denominated cash balances.

Guidance Reiterated: Total revenues, opex and capex guidance for the year have been reiterated at “greater than US$245m”, “up to US$75m” and “up to US$50m”, respectively.

Material Resource at an Attractive Price: In H1/24, Savannah announced the acquisition of its JV partner in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field, increasing its economic interest to 100%. At US$61.5m, the acquisition looks attractively priced and gives Savannah total operational control over a producing asset that it knows well, where oil production can be rapidly increased at modest cost. It brings a complementary gas development asset into the portfolio that can support Accugas’s long-term midstream growth ambitions.

My assessment is the same scotpak in 12 months time it's a very positive outlook, we are over the hump period as I like to call it with CPF facility on track to complete in the next 8 weeks as they are in the commissioning phase it would be good to get some addtional gas contracts through in Q1 2025 to further accelerate our revenues.

Also I didn't realise that we were doing a four well testing programme in Niger, thought it was just a single well, so I wonder if they have increased the scope of the niger well test programme and now that the pipeline is operational they might expediate plans for Niger.

If the market believed the validity and the intention of the MOU that WCAT had signed for the size of company it's is I would have expected it to do multiples on that rns and it hasn't.

It doesn't take a genius to workout the the wildcat announcement is just a front to test market perception of there intentions, I would be more worried if the MOU was with someone like Perenco who are bigger out with than us, well capitalised, private so reporting rules are laxed and significant operatoration experience in africa.

Compensation riddle as Petronas exits South Sudan

September 20, 2024 JUBA

The Transitional National Legislative Assembly (TNLA) has reiterated that whoever buys out Petronas Carigali Nile Ltd (PNCL) should compensate the communities affected by the environmental pollution.

TNLA member Aisha Abdul-Salam on Wednesday tabled a motion on the exit of the Malaysian firm from South Sudan’s oil exploration and production before the release of an environmental audit.

The exit of Petronas before the audit has raised concerns with a parliamentarian questioning who would take the responsibility for those affected by pollution.

Abdul-Salam, who represents Melut County of Upper Nile Stat, said the people affected by the pollution needed to be compensated.

“I’m moving this motion so that our destroyed environment and the communities are compensated with regards to Petronas’s withdrawal. I recommend that the government comes up with a comprehensive environmental audit report,” she said.

The exit of Petronas, confirmed in a statement, comes as the UK-based Savannah Energy terminated its planned US$1.25 billion acquisition of its assets in South Sudan.

The SPLM member representing Gogrial West County, Samuel Lual Deng, said as rumors indicated that Nilepet will be taking Petronas’s shares, it has to consider compensating those affected.

“I want to say this motion came at a right time when the government is preparing to reopen the oil exploration. We are hearing that Nilepet will be taking the shares of Petronas, they need to be careful as to how to compensate those affected,” he said.

Oil companies operating in South Sudan have long been accused of environmental pollution that has gone unaddressed for years.

A range of incidents has resulted in oil spills, and limited research has been conducted, showing growing pollution risks on surface and groundwater, including drinking sources.

Civil society groups and environmental activists have long protested the lack of response to these developments. The responsible companies have failed to provide transparency and accountability to ensure safety standards and climate adaptation measures.

The Finance and Economic Planning Minister earlier this week announced the resumption of Dar Blend crude oil exports from Upper Nile State through Sudan.

https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/compensation-riddle-as-petronas-exits-south-sudan

As a reminder the commencement of gas production in OML 13 will unlock the accugas true potential and it will probably commence when the CPF facility is completed. The Ashurst article demonstrates that accugas will be handsome beneficiaries of any new additional gas production in the OML 13 licence and will tie into "Expansion of the existing Accugas Uquo Gas Plant"

6 Cluster development of OML 13 to support the expansion of Accugas Uquo Gas Plant 400

Cluster gas development of OML 13 with 2Preserves of ~5Tcf

Expansion of the existing Accugas Uquo Gas Plant

https://www.ashurst.com/en/insights/nigerias-energy-transition/

Interesting to read that OML 13 production will reach full capacity and commence by end of this year on the OML 13 licence by end of this year by NEPL and NOSL.

"During the visit, a representative of the NEPL-NOSL management noted that the company has production facilities with a capacity of 60,000 barrels of oil per day and 90 million standard cubic feet of gas per day."

With our CPF facility commencing shortly and our pipeline running through OML 13 licence one would have to imagine that we could quite a lot of the 90 million standard cubic feet of gas per day being transported through our accugas pipeline.

https://tribuneonlineng.com/fg-plans-support-for-nepl-nosl-for-increased-gas-production/

SOG - I believe the plateau number of 5,000 bopd is based on booking existing 2C to 2P which I recall being 33 million or so barrels. We can achieve a higher number but as you allude to 15,000 bopd or more however that may require to start an extensive drilling campaign and exploration on our acreage.

My guess is Savannah would preferably like to get to a plateau of 5,000 bopd production before they consider scaling Niger into 10,000 bopd or so barrels etc, ideally funding and future Niger growth from the 5,000 bopd cashflows.

Sudan is set to resume exports once again from south sudan in October. However it means nothing to us if we cant get a deal for the Petronas assets.

https://www.energyintel.com/00000191-7f87-dd10-af93-7faf3ec00000

Looks like Petronas officially filed the case on Friday 23rd August 2024. Interesting to see how this unfolds. I am guessing like any case there will be an emergency arbitration ruling and if South Sudan don’t stand off after this than it will go to the full case.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/cases/case-database/case-detail?CaseNo=ARB/24/36

Looks like Petronas is continue to sue South Sudan and is proceeding with its arbitration

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/08/26/malaysias-petronas-sues-south-sudan-over-abandoned-oil-fields/

Streets thanks for confirming I did remember you saying something post agm but couldn’t remember the detail, so your clarification was useful.

I think this update will be crucial in driving the sentiment for a lot on here and if there are material positive developments than that woudl be most welcome by all.

Rockyride and Komakino - I concur at the point of suspension chad was not reflected in the SP, it was when we were at 40p but the market had already sensed trouble with the deal so it had walked the SP back down. All things considering I think our low fair is 30p and our high fair value is 35p without any deal based on our current assets etc.......