Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
As for where we are on the value ladder, I always use to to compare Seplat share price with our share price as there use to be a broad correlation between the 2 companies prior to suspension.... The Seplat share price has hit an all time high this wee and 75% up since the price at our time of suspension.
I know it's not comparing apples to apples, and probably more like apples to pears, but considering the positive correlation I would imagine there might be some read across from that perhaps not as much as 75% but a small read across of 15% - 25%, also with the fact that with every passing month we reduce overall debt and build cash...........
Zengas - Great analysis as ever I personally would be happy with extended suspension if it means it allows the company time to bring a significant deal to market. I think everyone on here knows that what savannah is trying to do is once in a lifetime opportunity, and with these opportunities nothing is ever as clear cut and simple as mentioned by a few already accugas took a while and now it's a top performing asset with material upside. Andrew strategy is not wrong as everyone is looking to deal make in Africa with majors selling some tasty assets we just need a bit of luck to come our way and there is nothing like additional time to close deals to swing the odds more in our favour.
I am cognisant of the fact that a lot of private investors are frustrated on here but the prize is such that can only be executed with patience as I like to call it the "ZEN" mindsight..............................
Https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Victoria-Island-Senior-Compliance-Officer-LA/967565855/
https://careers.savannah-energy.com/job/Esit-Eket-Inventory-and-Material-Supervisor-AK/967562455/
Nigeria team continues to grow shows potential sign of the growth to come from accugas this year
Further details on Gabon government pre-emption rights................ $1.3bn a significant premium to what M&P offered nearly 100%...........
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012924-signal-to-investors-gabon-junta-goes-for-broke-with-13-bil-assala-oil-pre-emption
https://www.intellinews.com/gabon-seeks-1-3bn-funding-to-buy-assala-oil-company-ahead-of-france-s-maurel-and-prom-310103/
By the wording looks like we will help the Gabonese government pre-empt so perhaps a joint bid...............
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/01/30/savannah-energy-joins-the-race-for-a-share-of-carlyle-s-oil-assets,110153645-bre
Nicely put Kinkell, most people don't realise the value that the accugas asset will unlock this year with CPF completion. There is so much going right for the company still.
- Accugas will see material increase in volumes this year with CPF completion in a few months - No doubt in my mind
- Niger / Benin pipeline complete and on the cusp of commencing exports will mean a better plan for Savannah Niger programme.
- Should see some update on all ICC cases preferably H1 2024.
- Accugas debt re-structure - Hopefully some update in H1 2024
- Potential acquisitions south sudan or another
I truly believe based on organic growth during the suspension period and with every passing month reducing overall debt we should be fairly valued higher than our suspension price especially with whats to come with accugas in the next few months.
Could we go for Etinde assets with new age now that Perenco have pulled out.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BLVN/termination-of-transaction-jxcjggrtkhm10mm.html
Good find Porsche - I think they may progress but albeit slow, is it enough to issue an AD Doc by 1st Feb ler's see, but if there is genuine positive progress than another extension of roughly 2 months till 31st March may be the more likely outcome and more plausible................... Perhaps the wheels are slowly turning and slowly crank up but likelihood is some additional time is probably needed to fully grease all workstreams to come to market.
It looks like the minister of petroleum only returned to office last week so whilst we may have progress are we fully there yet remains to be seen.
https://twitter.com/puot_kang/status/1747906200128151721
Https://x.com/onyeka_chii/status/1748000313821262150?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Looks like as I thought Abia state could be a new market for accugas / savannah somebody else also commented on it on twitter see below
https://x.com/emmaoyoki/status/1747968609035366630?s=12
Another refinery in southeast Nigeria in vicinity of our accugas pipeline due to commence shortly. With all the developments happening in an around our accugas pipeline network. It's hard not to get excited about the potential accugas has in the short medium and long term. I vaguely remember at one point the company did mention that accugas has the potential to scale up to $1bn in revenues alone as a standalone asset. This year developments in the OML 13 licence area, with refineries coming on stream and all within reach of our pipeline network will truly appraise the unlock the value of accugas asset
https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1573996-fg-announces-date-complete-refinery-dangote-port-harcourt-begins-operations/
Chevron CEO has said the oil market is likely heading for a supply crunch 2025 Onwards. There is never a better time to secure oil acquisitions than 2024. If only we can bring home a material oil acquisition this year...................................
https://boereport.com/2024/01/16/market-to-be-short-oil-from-2025-onwards-occidental-ceo-at-davos/
Shell suspends red sea shipments indefinitely if things continue or escalate we could see $100 oil and stronger gas prices in Q1, the supply disruption is real it will be interesting to see how oil and gas equities respond to this in the next few days and weeks as supply concerns continue to mount.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/shell-suspends-red-sea-shipments-amid-fears-of-more-houthi-attacks-c7fa936d
After the commissioning of Dangote refinery looks like Port Harcourt refinery is also due to come online.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nigeria-seeks-operators-state-owned-port-harcourt-oil-refinery-2024-01-15/
Looks Like Shell has sold it's onshore Nigerian assets to Renaissance, a consortium of five companies for up to $2.4 billion. Renaissance is made up of ND Western, Aradel Energy, First E&P, Waltersmith and Petrolin.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/shell-agrees-sell-its-nigeria-onshore-oil-gas-business-2024-01-16/
Again from the list of names in the consortium it seems like african independents are always the preferred buyers for the sellers, as governments are likely to approve deals involving local independents and foreign independents. I still remain of the opinion that foreign independents will find it extremely hard to close deals in africa the real winners for african divestments from majors will be local African independents.
Let’s hope we have done some leg work at summit alongside being silver sponsors can see savannah applying for a few licences in upcoming bid rounds
https://energycapitalpower.com/oil-gas-bid-rounds-imminent-announces-libya-summits-finance-panel/?utm_content=278415192&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-3468678856
Interesting to see savannah energy tagged to this particular session by a linked in post from energy capital and power. Could we line up a renewable project in Libya ?
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/energy-capital-power_lees2024-oilandgas-energy-activity-7152280083725004800-ysav?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios
We are silver sponsors this week at Libya energy weekend summit this weekend . Let’s hope we are sponsors of actual substance and it means something in terms of partnerships rather than sponsors to just fill our time
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
https://x.com/energycappower/status/1746191920185966663?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw