Member Info for TrustILie

Looks like meeting with the president is near the corner with the request going to the very top expecting positive news on receivables in the next few weeks and months.

Any indication of potential timeline on any other deals, it's clear south sudan is off the table for the foreseeable future. Also was anything mentioned on additional gas contracts and the drilling plans outlined for H2 2025 ?

Scotpak - If you could get clarification on conversion of the rest of the usd debt to naira that would be great. Also pose the question why it's taking so long and how much is left to convert etc etc

Expecting strong reforms in the Nigeria Power sector with UK partnership.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2025/04/21/nigeria-uk-deepen-ties-to-boost-gas-sector-regulatory-framework/

They have already started paying some of the power sector debt

https://www.agcnewsnet.com/article/4141

Bodes well if they manage to clear half of the power sector and Gencos debt this year -

https://t.co/QZDceNsJdD

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6371601466112/will-nigeria-clear-4trn-debt-owed-power-generation-companies/

Https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/04/south-africa-can-mitigate-trumps-ire-through-economic-diplomacy-and-non-alignment

Personally I have changed what I will value Savannah here in from, I think the value isn't in acquisitions at the moment certainly not for the next 1-2 years.

I think where savannah is currently at in the life cycle the market will value more towards the following:

1) Recovery of receivables and net debt reduction.

2) re-structure of accugas debt

3) growth in Nigeria production and customer base.

4) progress in Niger towards production.

Genuinely feel the company should focus on the above 4 before going into any acquisitions they have proved nothing but a distraction over the last 3-4 years without having to show anything for it so far.

Yh recovery could be an issue, but we could potentially sell our award to specialist firms who buy such awards. I think rock hopper did something similar if i am not mistaken

Nice to see the chairman buying shares, though Savannah still has a lot of confidence to rebuild and significant ground to cover. Let’s see how the story unfolds over the next 12 months and whether they can execute on their plans. It’s a long road back, but one they might deliver on—though they may need to adjust their course slightly. Personally, I don’t see African acquisitions as a viable opportunity right now, given the regulatory environment and the growing theme of resource nationalization. A classic example is Tullow, which yesterday sold assets to the Gabon Oil Company, a state-owned entity. Similar situations occurred with Assala’s assets, Chad nationalizing the Doba assets, and South Sudan nationalizing Petronas’ assets.

It’s a recurring pattern. Therefore, I’d rather they focus on doubling production from Accugas later this year with the 80 mmscfd drilling program and explore getting Niger off the ground. If acquisitions remain their goal, they need to broaden their horizons beyond Africa. It’s clear the African acquisition strategy outside Nigeria hasn’t worked. If a few smaller assets come up for sale in Nigeria, that might be the best bet—especially since we’ve managed to close the SIPEC deal and understand Nigeria’s regulatory framework, making it easier to see through to completion.

Beyond Nigeria, however, there’s material uncertainty around deal completion. Skepticism will persist until Savannah proves otherwise.

Just goes to show how difficult it is to close deals and get regulatory approvals. We don't seem to be the only ones that struggle with deal closures. Even though the number of asests up for sale are plenty deal closures and regulatory approvals have become a massive hinderance for the industry.

If anyone is ever in touch with IR, i wonder if they could ask why would savannah continue to go after these deals when clearly there is a wider regulatory approvals problems from host countries on approving these deals i would love for Andrew to answer this question if I am honest and also will they consider pivoting for deals outside of Africa

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ENOG/termination-of-strategic-sale/16951467

Resource Nationalisation is not always the answer

One year after GOC's takeover, Assala Energy still without management

The Gabonese state-owned company is struggling to attract managers to Assala Energy capable of handling the new assets acquired last year. Added to this is an expected fall in returns from these licences. [...]

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/03/19/one-year-after-goc-s-takeover-assala-energy-still-without-management,110389569-art

Zambia copper market set for unprecedented growth amongst higher copper pricing Jubilee are perfectly placed I believe and we will be able to capitalise on this

https://nigeriansketch.com/new-exploration-expansion-projects-drive-africas-copper-market-growth/

Would it be worth going for the 10% held by total and the 5% held by Eni. The 30% went for $2.4bn so we we went for total and eni stake it would be 15% valued at $1.2bn or perhaps the 10% or the 5% separately would be $800m or $400m I am sure total and eni are also looking to offload from the onshore areas in Nigeria too

https://www.upstreamonline.com/finance/shell-wraps-up-2-4-billion-sale-of-nigeria-onshore-business/2-1-1792828?zephr_sso_ott=Ej725v

I for one am hoping our next acquisition is also in Nigeria, I think we should stick to a country we know best and have proven that we can get regulatory approvals. In Nigeria we are proven as we completed accugas and now sipec. Sometimes it's best to stick to the market the company knows best rather than going into unknown countries unless there is watertight regulatory agreements in place at the point of signing SPA for acquisitions. Andrew has mentioned there are approximately $16 billion worth of assets holding over 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) resources

currently on the market. In terms of my order of preference to do deals in countries, i would go as folows

1) Nigeria - Top Priority

2) Angola - Supportive oil and gas industry

3) Egypt

4) Tunisia

5) Ghana

6) Equatorial Guinea

7) Ivory Coast

I found the below quote interesting $35.1m + $2m = $37.1m. But we inherit Savannah inherits $19.5m of cash within SIPEC.

$35.1m + $2m = $37.1m. - $19.5m = $17.6m

$17.6m is not bad considering we get to increase reserves by over 30% and immediate production gain of circa 2,000 barrels plus increase in the next 12 month. These are the deals we should be going for incremental gains with solid metrics and on the cheap which avoids needless suspensions.

Fully debt funded. Cash consideration paid on completion was $35.1m (after adjustments for working capital), funded by drawing down on a new $60m Reserve Based Lending debt facility. Savannah inherits $19.5m of cash within SIPEC. A further $2m of deferred consideration is payable in eight quarterly instalments.

Savannah Energy+(SAVE, House Stock at 10p) Completes Nigerian asset acquisition Savannah Energy has completed the acquisition of SIPEC, owner of a 49% non-operated stake in the Stubb Creek field onshore Nigeria. The acquisition takes Savannah’s effective ownership of Stubb Creek to 100%. The transaction is already included in our 41p/share fair value, as outlined in our recent report Savannah Energy: A refresher as trading suspension ends (4 March 2024). As stated in that report, we estimate the acquisition was c.$150m accretive to our valuation. It adds existing oil production and undeveloped gas resources that could be distributed by Savannah’s Accugas subsidiary.

Deal background. In March 2024 Savannah announced two transactions to increase its effective economic interest in the Stubb Creek oil and gas field to 100% for headline consideration of c.$61.5m. The deals with Sinopec and Jagal Ventures add 46mmboe of net 2P reserves and 2C contingent resources (c.82% gas) and allow Savannah to proceed with its plans to materially expand oil production from the field over the 18 months following completion. It also increases its ownership of gas resources that can become the feedstock to fulfil Accugas’ existing long-term gas sales agreements in the medium term. The Stubb Creek field was converted to a 20-year petroleum mining lease effective 1 December 2023.

Fully debt funded. Cash consideration paid on completion was $35.1m (after adjustments for working capital), funded by drawing down on a new $60m Reserve Based Lending debt facility. Savannah inherits $19.5m of cash within SIPEC. A further $2m of deferred consideration is payable in eight quarterly instalments.

Driver for near-term revenue growth. Our financial estimates already incorporate the additional Stubb Creek stake from the end of Q1 FY25F. Savannah intends to expand gross oil production from 2.7kbbl/d in FY24F to c.4.7kbbl/d, which we assume is achieved in FY27F. The asset accounts for c.31% of our FY26F revenue estimate, up from c.10% in FY24F.

Doesn't mean much we are not a producer.......................................

Operational and Economic Factors

Infrastructure: Proximity to existing infrastructure (pipelines, processing facilities) operated by Santos-Beach and Bridgeport reduces development costs and time to first oil.

Drilling Timeline: Scheduled for March 2025, spudding imminent.

Cost and Funding: Gross drilling cost is AUD$2.8m (~USD$1.85m at 0.66 USD/AUD). Empyrean funds two-thirds (AUD$1.87m) for a 40% working interest, with Condor Energy covering the rest. The fixed-price AFE with Condor Energy mitigates cost overrun risks.

Commerciality: With a mean recoverable estimate of 6.4–12.6 MMBOE and oil prices around USD$70–80/bbl (March 2025 projection), gross revenue could range from USD$448m–$1,008m over the field life. After drilling, development, and operating costs, the net present value (NPV) would depend on production rates and cost efficiency, but the low entry cost (USD$1.85m gross) suggests a favorable risk-reward profile.

Expecting a strong bullish move considering it's grossly undervalued at the moment.

Geological Perspectivity

The Wilson River prospect’s geological setting is a key driver of its potential:

Location: Situated in the Cooper Basin, South West Queensland, Australia, a prolific hydrocarbon province with a long history of oil and gas production. Its proximity to producing fields operated by Santos-Beach (Cooper Basin JV) and Bridgeport Energy suggests a favorable petroleum system.

Structural Context: The prospect lies along a NW-SE oil migration pathway and shares structural orientation and features with nearby fields. This alignment with proven hydrocarbon migration routes increases the likelihood of trapping mechanisms being effective.

Reservoir Targets: Multiple stacked reservoir targets are identified, which enhances perspectivity by providing multiple opportunities for hydrocarbon accumulation. Stacked reservoirs reduce the risk of a single-target failure.

Seismic Mapping: The prospect is supported by a combination of 2D and 3D seismic data, which improves subsurface imaging and reduces geological uncertainty compared to relying solely on 2D data.

Resource Estimates: Prospective oil in place ranges from 8.7 MMBOE (million barrels of oil equivalent) to 37.4 MMBOE, with a mean of 21.3 MMBOE. Nearby fields have recovery factors up to 59% in prolific formations, depending on reservoir quality. Assuming a conservative recovery factor of 30–59%, recoverable resources could range from 2.6 MMBOE (low case) to 22 MMBOE (high case), with a mean of approximately 6.4–12.6 MMBOE.

Assessment: The geological setting is promising due to its location in a proven basin, structural analogy to producing fields, and multiple targets. The seismic data quality further de-risks the subsurface interpretation.

Chance of Success (CoS)

The chance of success is the probability of discovering commercially viable hydrocarbons. It depends on four key geological factors: source, reservoir, trap, and seal, plus operational execution:

Source: The Cooper Basin has well-documented source rocks (e.g., Permian coals and shales) that have generated significant hydrocarbons. The NW-SE migration pathway suggests hydrocarbons have migrated toward the prospect. High confidence.

Reservoir: Multiple stacked targets are noted, and nearby fields demonstrate producible reservoirs with recovery factors up to 59%. Moderate to high confidence.

Trap: The structural similarity to nearby fields and seismic mapping suggest a viable trap. Moderate to high confidence.

Seal: The Cooper Basin’s producing fields imply effective seals (e.g., shales or tight formations). No specific seal risks are mentioned. High confidence.