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Nigeria trying to stimulate gas sector by isettling historical debts to power generation companies
https://www.legit.ng/business-economy/energy/1581559-improved-power-supply-coming-fg-finally-pays-120-million-gas-suppliers-boost-electricity/
SS president to inaugurate nilepet office today
https://m.facebook.com/Nilepetroleumcorporation
https://x.com/patrickheinisc1/status/1763875514098356429?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Longshort - agreed on the Nigeria fx stuff I think naira will see a material appreciation in H2 2024.
Not still convinced we are on track to achieve deal closure in this suspension window so let’s hope for another extension and see the Q1 2024 results in early April to give us an update on the wider business
Zengas - To put it simply pulling out of the deal made more sense earlier, but with every passing month the deal becomes more favourable and tastier in terms of balance of payments so makes less sense.
It all comes down to south sudan government approval, I would imagine that Petronas and savannah want to see it through. I guess the question than depends on hard deadline approvals timeframe, as there comes a point where some sensibility comes into play.........................
Can petronas and savannah continue in stalemate on approvals for another 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 months, that's the question and it's safe to assume by the change of wording that savannah are not coming to the market without an admission document so definitely not an easy conundrum.........................
Longshort - In my mind I had set the 15th March as my expectation, one would expect if we don't get anything by than than the last 2 weeks of March are more about planning for further extensions that's how I tend to view each extension to be fair is if we don't have anything 2 weeks prior to deadline than we are pretty much in the same position in terms of progress.
Interesting to see the below, we know the export issues and as the eye radio article suggest they are progressing with repairs.
Something that caught my eye is the mention of Vitol, seems to me like Vitol are the principal trading house that market south sudanese crude, and I wonder if they played a key role in us striking an SPA with Petronas, they could be our financial backers and with a company like savannah operating south sudanese assets and increasing production they would be the principal benefactors in marketing addtional volumes if south sudan can increase it's export capacity to levels it was capable of doing previously
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022924-force-majeure-declared-on-south-sudans-dar-blend-crude-loadings-sources
Morning All - A new month and all is quiet in the Savannah front.
https://www.eyeradio.org/crude-oil-set-for-smooth-flow-as-pipelines-under-repair-amour/
Https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
I personally feel that both waring Sudanese parties need the pipeline revenues so they have already started to fix the oil pipeline infrastructure
https://twitter.com/RSFSudan/status/1761375911830503789
Tier - SS Government is in a dire financial situation so unless so dodgy transaction occurs there is slim chance of them purchasing the acquisition themselves.
A few articles below to stew on until savannah is able to pull the finger out and provide updates
https://sudantribune.com/article282734/
https://apnews.com/article/south-sudan-crisis-oil-red-sea-f8954810435083ade292f79ac08a7638
StreetsofGold - I am guessing the recent red sea troubles as a matter of fact would re-instate Petronas stance further for leaving. Obviously for someone like size of our company can extract significant value and is probably still a good asset to go for even with export interruptions especially if the balance of payment on closing is low with the significant amount of time passed since deal inception.
It clearly hinges on approvals being the main thing that slows progress or stops the deal from occruing.
Buffett is bullish on energy “ When the dust settles, America’s power needs and the consequent capital expenditure will be staggering”
https://www.forexlive.com/news/warren-buffett-capital-spending-on-americas-power-needs-will-be-staggering-20240226/amp/
Thanks Zengas - as ever appreciate your thoughts but at the same time the company could do a lot better with comms on such questions in my opinion, answers even as small as the one you provide for example go along way. I am hoping sooner or later Savannah are able to fully articulate the full value of the accugas asset
Zengas - One thing that will be interesting is how the company and market values third party gas reserves for example the gas that goes through our network from Amocon, the company did mention they see a lot of stranded gas assets that can be converted or utilised through our pipeline.
It will be interesting to see the book value of 2p reserves from third party licences or acreage and how they can value this or provide numbers to for example the gas that we get from AMOCON is licence OML 156, I couldn't find 2p reserve number for this licence online, but it would be interesting data point purely because if Amocon have significant reserves and the only way to cash in is through our pipeline than that gas effectively strengthens our 2p numbers albeit not our gas if that makes sense.
Any thoughts on this ?
Scotpak - agreed but clearly still plenty of deliberation ongoing still, one would think if Petronas and Savannah have kept it alive till now, neither parties will flake out. So effectively forcing the SS government to take a formal stance on the deal either through an approval or formal rejection.
#South_Sudan's Trade Minister and Ambassador meet Mark Fitzgerald, Vice President of #Petronas for Intl. Assets, in #Malaysia to discuss the company's activities in 🇸🇸. However, in December 2022, Petronas decided to sell its entire oil and gas business in 🇸🇸 to Savannah Energy.
https://twitter.com/PatrickHeinisc1/status/1762424020379505150