Member Info for TrustILie

Komakino - don’t think so you can’t be breach of your contract in one way but not another. Meaning if they are not get revenues that’s a breach of contract already and the contract is void already and ICC would view it the same you can’t pick and choose what elements of a contract you like and don’t

So I believe a transitional agreement is already in place between savannah energy and chad government which may not be public knowledge with the terms I highlighted in my previous post.

I believe there is a confidential agreement between Savannah Energy and the government of Chad.

Conditions included in the contract may be

Savannah Energy is to maintain its operations of the Doba oil endeavour.

A portion of the project's revenues will be granted to the Chadian government. (This makes up for the huge exit fee they wanted from Exxon for approve the sale, not a upfront payment but a portion of revenues in addition to there current share will make up for lose in exit fees.

Savannah Energy will handle all tax and royalty payments associated with the project.

The contract may have a specified duration, after which the government of Chad reserves the right to buy the project from Savannah Energy.

The agreement serves as a temporary solution that will enable Savannah Energy to continue its management of the Doba oil operation amidst an ongoing legal dispute with the Chadian government. The final verdict of the lawsuit will be the deciding factor on whether Savannah Energy retains the ability to run the project and gain from its revenues.

This would tie in with the article released through Africa intelligence that savannah energy were continuing to still pay salaries of chad DOBA employees. No company in there right mind would continue to pay additional salaries.

Interesting to see our CFO Nick Beattie taking part in The rise of renewables: Sharing lessons with the extractive sector 11:45–13:00 on 14th June. Looks like Andrew would normally take part in such events but that also coincides with the SSOP 2023 oil conference so he can’t make it.

https://eiti.org/eiti2023/programme

Savannah Energy clearly positioning itself in renewable with all the project its lining up and the exposure should hopefully help us finance our renewable project through debt.

I find it interesting that Savannah haven't posted about being a sponsor of SSOP 2023 on their social media. Looks like they want to control the comms timeline in relation to South Sudan entirely and don't want to give an impression about the deal. Just a small observation clearly Savannah want to control proceedings about how the market is appraised on south sudan.

If Savannah Energy Plc use the full $2.5bn debt they can easily get up to 150,000 - 200,000 bopd with reserves well in excess of 1bn+. With assumption that brent crude price will average above $70 and above for the foreseeable future we will reach £2 share price in quick time

Agreed Komakino - The nature of the assets that we are doing deals in i.e south sudan would always have contingency built into the contracts so clearly they must be pressing ahead with the deal and they would have more on the ground intelligence as to what the actual situation is than we ever would know through mainstream media. They clearly must be happy to proceed and must have contingent and clauses built in that protects our interest without comprising the deal.

Let's hope we close south sudan and move onto our next hydrocarbon deal Amni Energy deal ;)

Surely the timing of announcing us as gold sponsor for SSOP 2023 is a good sign ;)

https://twitter.com/energycappower/status/1658804808730411009?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

Agreed agadem relationship with IR was phenomenal. Don’t think they have ever responded to my emails.

Looks like another renewable company incorporated today - SAVANNAH ENERGY RTH LIMITED (14868334)

Morning All, A new week means new hope............ Has anyone been in touch with IR recently just wondered and if so what has there response been ? I have tried recently but no response back......

You could be right komakino, whether it forms part of the same admission document or whether a SPA follows straight after remains to be seen. However one thing is certain that they will be looking to replace the 20,000 Bopd of production that they would have got from chad doba field if they managed to complete the acquisition successfully of Exxon and Petronas share. So it wouldn’t surprise me if they are looking to cram more than 1 deal quite quickly in a all in one document to avoid future suspension. It also would not surprise me if they ask for an extension as well to complete more than one deal. It just saves the hassle of future suspensions. Obviously what I am saying is just based on my own hypothesis. But I believe missing out on DOBs production will make them go for another acquisition which will hopefully replace the lost opportunity in chad. Amni fits the bill as according to its website it’s production is circa 20,000 Bopd which fits what they initially went for in chad.

Who knows we could receive another SPA before the admission document as well……

Imagine if the admission document covers the Petronas South Sudan deal and Amni Energy deal. Than all price estimates will be out the window……………….

One can dream and certainly possible considering the amount of time the admission document is taking I believe they are perhaps trying to bolt on more than one deal as an all encompassing admission document so we avoid further suspension. The last thing they would want is to complete South Sudan and than be suspended for Amni energy deal as that would certainly irritate Many people. Amni production may not be as large but it’s reserves are huge and would highly likely make it another reverse takeover even post South Sudan. So they may be trying to complete a mega document with 2 monster deals in the same window.

If we do complete south sudan with a closing price between $700 - 800m or lower and with net debt in the region of 1 bn - 1.2bn dollars, than I believe we should have enough headroom and fcf to pursue Amni international let's assume that our max borrowing is circa $2bn we would still have capacity of $800 million for additional acquisitions, and given our success with accugas in Nigeria i would love to pursue amni international compared to other deals. Even though Nigeria has it's challenges it's far better than other regions like chad or south sudan, plus the risk of military coup in Nigeria is far lower than the likes of chad and south sudan.

Although the production is much lower since 2021 by the looks of the below article, but it's great to see an RBL facility so if we were to acquire Amni we would have access to the RBL as well so we should be able to use that to grow amni production and develop it's assets under the right stewardship.

https://www.afreximbank.com/afreximbank-signs-us635-million-reserve-based-facility-term-sheet-with-amni-international-petroleum-development-company-ltd/

Amni International production number I believe as of 2021 was circa 50,000 bopd and 200 million cubic of gas per day. The company reserves are estimated to be 500 million barrels of oil and 2 tcf of gas. So if we do complete amni international deal it will be as large as south sudan or even larger likely an all share merger, not sure when the website was last updated so production could be lower since 2021 if there was lack of investment in the fields.

Oil: CEMAC's Community Competition Council endorses the acquisition of Petronas by SHT

The CEMAC Community Competition Council met today to deliberate on the acquisition of Petronas by SHT. After a consensual deliberation, the Council issued an opinion in favour of the acquisition, which will be submitted to the final decision of the Chairman of the CEMAC Commission. Meeting in Douala, Cameroun, on [...]

Tchadinfos

ChadInfos

Published on 11-05-2023

The CEMAC Community Competition Council met today to deliberate on the acquisition of Petronas by SHT. After a consensual deliberation, the board issued an opinion in favour of the acquisition, which will be submitted to the final decision of the chairman of the CEMAC committee.

Meeting in Douala, Cameroun, the CEMAC Community Competition Council completed its technical work on Thursday, May 11, 2023. The decision will soon be approved. This acquisition is an important operation for SHT, which will be able to strengthen its position in Chadian oil management by becoming the majority, namely 60% of the Consortium, 59.82% of Totco and 53.77% of Cotco.

This decision follows the visit of the Minister of State, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, Secretary General of the Presidency of Cameroun, to Chad on April 23, as well as the Chadian government's announcement of this acquisition. This decision shows that relations between N'Djamena and Yaoundé are once again in good shape.

The acquisition of Petronas by SHT is also a nose in Savannah, which has entered into a tug-of-war with Chad regarding the purchase of Exxon Mobil's shares in the Oil Consortium. This showdown pushed the Chadian government to nationalise the assets of the American multinational.

https://tchadinfos.com/petrole-le-conseil-communautaire-de-la-concurrence-de-la-cemac-donne-son-aval-a-lacquisition-de-petronas-par-la-sht/

Personally if we could sell the Costco pipeline entirely and move on to acquire other assets that would be great.

Zengas - Apologies I am still a little sketchy on the detail and will try to do some more research on the 2 assets mention below, i believe the below if we pursue will be post sudan so if we press ahead with Amni Energy that deal will likely conclude in H2 and not H1 which would make me believe that it would be in addition to south sudan completing in H1. In terms of structure of the deal I do believe an all share deal is likely almost akin to a merger creating an enlarged company Savannah Energy Group, believe a likely cash / shares deal being the likely scenario being accretive to Savannah shareholders. Although like i said it's not unheard of savannah widening the net as you have previously reported us being interested in Eni tunisia asset and petronas egypt. So I thought I would post the ones below to demonstrate the kind of assets that we are potentially after in nigeria as well. Also i was more intrigued that we were not after nigerian assets given our success with accugas. In terms of the Amni energy acquisition i was told it really difficult to complete if we did genuinely pursued it as its abit like the the seplat deal in nigeria with the new presidency and conflicted interest it's hard or almost impossible to jump through the regulatory hurdles.

whether the 2 i mentioned below ever see the light of day only time will tell but for now our priorities remain with south sudan completing in timely manner with government approval. Amni Energy would be a dream deal after south sudan as it could easily take us to 150,000 to 200,000 bopd production per day in the 2 or 3 yrs with reserves well in excess of 1 billion

Sorry ignore the price quoted in point 1 of $1bn as he is unsure of the acquisition price but those are the 2 Nigerian assets we are interested in.

I don't have an official source so please don't slate me as I have heard it from someone in the african oil and gas space m&a that we are after additional oil and gas assets in Nigeria and potentially looking to acquire following assets:

1) An independent producing oil and gas company in Nigeria https://www.amni.com/ for circa acquisition price of $1bn

2) We are also looking to acquire OML 138 from Exxon not sure for how much - https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/what-we-do/energy-supply/crude-trading/usan

If this is true is this why the admission document is taking longer as we are looking at additional assets ? and they may form part of the admission document ? if this is true i can't see us acquiring 2 assets with $1bn + price tag simultaneously as it would sound highly unconceivable and even if possible who would give us $2bn of debt unless the Petronas south sudan acquisition is no longer feasible or the economic interest date of the south sudan acquisition means that the closing price is likely to be much lower so we can go for another 1 or 2 big one's ?

Again like i said i am not sure how trusted the source is so i am just putting it out there for discussion............

Zengas - I recall your analysis in comparing us to the likes of kosmos which I found very useful, i guess the major difference in success case between us and kosmos if the deal were to complete would be that Kosmos has a premium on it's valuation purely on the basis that it has a much broader geographical spread i.e west africa, north sea, eastern Mediterranean whereas Savannah is heavily focused on africa, I would love Andrew to do an oil and gas acquisition outside of africa just to bolster overall market perception of Savannah but I know he won't as we are purely an african oil and gas play for better or worse.