Member Info for TrustILie

zengas - thanks for posting. firstly they dispelled savannah for doba oil fields which is a territory they could force there hands in but now they are ****ed that savannah energy pipeline interest in cotco was independent of the doba fields and now they want to influence savannah holding in the pipeline interest however they are overreaching their hand here as pipeline runs through cameroon so cameroon has as much share if not greater with chad being land locked.

it seems to me that starting a dispute on the pipeline interest it's a stretch to far and also seems to me that the the pipeline is covered by cotco company by laws and not chad government laws so they can't nationalise the pipeline like they did with the oil field.

One thing that remains to be seen is if Savannah Energy Plc manages to complete acquisitions successfully and becomes a producer in the region of 150,000 - 200,000 bopd. How long before it will be independently allowed to operate until institutions look for a quick exit and approve a takeover. In any case if we are producing roughly 200,000 bopd and reserves of 1 billion with debt circa $2.5bn and 1GW + renewable projects in pipeline that I would accept no less than £2.50 per share

Personally not to worried about chad it will play out in its own time. If South Sudan deal completes we can easily go for another acquisition which covers the 11,000 Bopd and associated reserves that we are missing out on in chad doba fields in fact we can go for a larger asset to replace lost potential and till end up with the doba asset after tribunal

I wonder if we get results this week and a scheduled GM at the end of the month post SSOP 2023. If we get South Sudan government approval at the conference than all that is left is for GM approval for deal which can be done together with approving accounts

Let’s assume the following -

Gross production as of spa announcement - 153,200 Bopd

Petronas net share based on above gross number - 56,320 Bopd

Petronas net revenue - $1.2bn

Petronas net operating expense - $600m

Petronas South Sudan free cash flow - $600m

Closing price of acquisition circa - $500-$700m

Post acquisition numbers

Production circa - 100,000 Bopd

Net debt circa - £800m - £1bn

2p reserves circa - 350 - 450 mmboe

Combined free cashflow - £600m - £700m

Good update from Cotco / savannah. Confirming that chad claims are false and spreading misinformation.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SAVE/cotco-update/15984066?showDisclaimer=true

You would think that with the aggressive nature in which chad is moving that the ICC must expedite the case or at the very least provide a temporary injunction until a formal verdict is reached. If chad end up muscling in on DOBA like this that’s going to create a big problem for majors who want to divest as other countries May follow the chad rule book and nationalise assets forcefully without proper rule of law. Whatever happens to our stake in DOBA this case may become a case study for future disputes so how ICC act on this will be crucial for future investment climate in Africa and appropriate ownership and transfer of assets

Sounds like the admission document ready and probably been signed off by all parties involved. So probably a matter of timing now more than anything else.........

Accugas still has the potentially to generate monster revenues for us if we can get more untreated gas to flow through our pipeline. 600 MMscfpd - 145 MMscfpd = 455 MMscfpd of spare capacity of untreated gas through our pipeline. Hopefully this agreement is a blueprint of how we can use our pipeline network to increase the flow of untreated gas and try and maximise as much of our pipeline capacity as possible.

Sorry I believe there is a misconception that I may be overhyping our potential value on South Sudan Deal completion. I would like to clarify I am not and my comparison to Kosmos Energy was purely on the basis of discussion to show the level of disparity. I for one like everyone else on here can not ascertain what our true value is no one can and ultimately the market will decided what fair value is. I was merely trying to show differences. Agreed that Kosmos Energy have a better geographical spread and also LNG asset that is probably priced by the market at a premium. But that's something that savannah energy can also achieve within the next 12-18 months. It wouldn't surprise me if we go for a LNG project or get a stake in one.

Do I think we will be equivalent to Kosmos Energy straight away - No. Do I think we can achieve peer valuation over time, I think yes. I am not comparing apples to pears. I am just comparing Green apples with red apples, if I was to use that as an analogy.

SHT Purchases Petronas Stake in Doba - https://www.upstreamonline.com/energy-security/petronas-sells-chad-oil-assets-to-government-after-collapse-of-earlier-savannah-deal/2-1-1457426

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/053023-interview-chad-hits-out-at-exxon-and-savannah-energy-in-doba-oil-field-dispute

Funny thing is that post the South Sudan acquisition even if we don’t complete another acquisition we could have potentially 2x kosmos energy production, half net debt as kosmos and potential equal 2p reserves. So it will definitely be interesting to see how the share price will be priced by brokers and analyst if South Sudan deal does complete

Andrew knott has been confirmed as speak at the South Sudan oil conference 2023. Let’s hope this is the start of increased news flow as we head towards the conference date and beyond.

https://twitter.com/energycappower/status/1663196505770012672?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw

My dream company in the next 12 - 18 months. As follows

180,000 - 200,000 Bopd

2p reserves in excess of 2 billion.

Net debt $2.5bn dollars.

1.5 - 2 GW of renewable projects.

That’s my dream for savannah energy it is definitely possible and not completely out of question. Our current production is circa 50k Bopd as per q1 update, let’s hope we successfully close South Sudan and assume it adds another 60k Bopd takes our production to 110k. Net debt as per Q1 update was circa $400m let’s assume we close South Sudan at around $700m. That brings our net debt to $1.1bn. Let’s assume we have capacity to borrow up to $2.5bn that means we have room for probably another 100k Bopd worth of assets which we could acquire through acquisitions. So not completely impossible.

To put it all into perspective kosmos energy as per the q1 update have 60k Bopd and net debt of $2.1bn. We could reach similar debt levels through acquisitions but have production probably 3 times greater. Their current market cap is £2.4bn.

So I fully understand the aggressive nature of acquisitions that savannah energy is pursuing cause the value multiples speak for themselves. To put it all into perspective our suspended market cap was circa £350m.

If South Sudan acquisition or any acquisition of similar size comes through then we are in for one hella of a ride.

Great find, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Vermillion Energy farm into our licence and makes sense for them as they have the infrastructure close to our licence with lots of spare capacity, there recent increase in stake probably means that they have plans to develop nearby fields and drive value from corrib infrstaructure.

Personally if we are getting South Sudan government approval at the oil conference then I am happy to wait and list after the conference as that will provide a massive boost on re-listing price. I wonder if they were forced to this time get government approval before coming to the market and re-admission by institutional holders ? Perhaps so, I reckon the institutional holders must have been adamant to AK and say we can’t have another chad scenario where we got HM approval and completed the deal with Exxon without formal acknowledgement from chad government. So I believe this time round they may have been forced by institutional holders to get government approval prior to re-listing than the GM approval from savannah shareholders becomes a formality. This also ties in with what Agadem said when we were suspended in December, I believe after one of his catch ups he did mention that IR had informed him that savannah only wants to return to market once South Sudan government has approved the deal. I would say the next few weeks are probably the most exciting times in savannah energy plc history as a company. As the South Sudan deal has the ability to eclipse everyone’s expectation if we manage to get formal government sign off and approval

Thanks Porsche - Just an observation but the list of directors in this company has Todor Emilov TRIFONOV and if you look at all the list of companies that he is a director for savannah on is accugas and the funding arrangement for the chad exxon acquisition, so I wonder if this new entity relates to a hydrocarbon acquisition........

I am probably clutching at straws but just an observation

Savannah Tweeting about participating in Nigerian Oil & Gas Opportunity Fair (“NOGOF") 2023.

https://twitter.com/Savannah_Energy/status/1661656047709306880

Are they possibly hinting at a nigerian acquisition after the south sudan acquisition and deal completion..........

Seen as we are all waiting for South Sudan Oil conference by the looks of it, I hope this conference provides formal government approval and all regulatory approvals needed from south sudan. Last thing i want is that this conference just becomes a deal acknowledgment by the south sudan government rather than formal sign off. Than at least that way all that would stand in the way would be a admission document for re-listing and GM to approve the deal by the savannah shareholders.

Only reason I am questioning is that I always thought that a GM would be before the formal government sign off in terms of sequence of events but that may just be may lack of understanding on reverse takeovers and it could also happen the other way, hence the reason as excited as i am about the oil conference I am slightly cautious in my expectation that this is where we will get formal government deal approval.......

Thoughts from others highly welcome..............

It’s hard to tell on the revenue front so making educated guesses on information available. I believe they are currently mediating and try to find a solution that satisfies all parties, I understand neither want to continue with an ICC case as sometimes it takes years to reach an outcome so both are willing to negotiate, now where this negotiations will lead is anyone’s guess.

1) Either the chad government buy the assets of us completely

2) They re-negotiate the revenue sharing and terms where they get increase share of revenues

I believe that number 2 is the more likely outcome as I can’t see the chad government looking to fully take on operating the field as they still need to build a credible operating company something that doesn’t happen overnight.