Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Awesome day! Unlucky to those who got shook last week!
Every day we get closer to fair value here. I'm raising my glass of dom perignon I am currently sipping in a fancy ass hotel to us all who have hung in there.
But it's not over yet.....
It's the most ridiculous process ever. Put yourself in JPMorgan and other big banks shoes; why would you put a bid in for this company when you know full well that you will be able to buy the company for a song once the FDIC will place into receivership, at which point all the large banks like vultures can pick on the corpse, cherrypicking the best part and leaving the FDIC with the skeleton and deposit losses. This process literally dooms any bank that faces a short term liquidity crisis...there is absolutely no incentive for larger banks to take up the slack when the govt constantly bail out and practically give it away to larger players.
The system is utterly rigged to allow larger players to benefit here. Why the FDIC acts as a backstop I do not know. There should be no such thing as "too big to fail". In this respect, let nature take its course. That's fair! This way, no bank would ever be too big to fail, and the banking system would be far more decentralised. Small and many!
Jpm and Co must be drooling this weekend over the cheap assets they are about to pick up
Exciting stuff.
If it begins with a 2, I will 4 bag here and profits will be well into 6 figures. But keeping level headed, c£1.50 is still where I believe any opening bid will be. Anything above that will be a bonus.
Would be very nice to see this close above £1. But the real gains to be had are much more binary. When bid is announced, it will gap up instantly to within 10% of the bid price (Apollo are a serious player so bid will be taken seriously, minus a small risk reverse premium if any deal falls through from bid acceptance to deal completion).
Unless things leak (it tends to do so), best course of action is to hold out for word from apollo if you want to see this through.
From where I stand, it's a win win. Regardless of what happens, the company is worth much more than it is currently valued at. And the activist investors are the silver lining here if a bid fails to materialise. I for one will see this out, to whatever end.
Everyone knows what's coming here. The boom of the confetti cannon and the dusting of another few billion shares.
That's all this company knows how to do. And of course finding dust with said cash. They are really great at that.
If you know what's good for you, stay well away at least until the placing and closer to these flow results. This has a long way (and time) to drift yet. Low 30s and possibly 20s inbound.
120p wouldn't be accepted. It would be rejected instantly, activist investors will force THG to spin off and add value through sum of parts....that's if another bidder doesn't instantly trump such a low bid. Value will out here either through a PE buyer or otherwise.
150p sounds about right for any serious bid.
Not much to be said now really until apollo show their hand. Happy for this to plod around the 90s until we know more.
All to play for here; 150 ± 20p opening gambit is where my money's at, and steadfast in belief that payday is just around the corner.
Petition doesn't even make sense. If you want to be put on the share register, use a CREST account, not a nominee account. Of course that will cost you more...and quite right too.
Why do you think share dealing is so cheap? The logistics of someone owning a couple of shares of a company going on a companies beneficial ownership register, only for them to sell a few days later makes no sense whatsoever to anyone.
I'll take today's result whilst the IIs and PIs hustle and justle for position.
Surfs up. Eyes firmly on the horizon and prepared to ride those waves. I won't be bailing until a) the right wave comes along, or b) we cruise to shore with an offer c£1.50±20p
Redirons you are a fool. Since when has a share consolidation ever worked well for a company lol. Everyone is obviously aware of the physical meaning, but consolidation screams bad news and is usually followed by more mass dilution resulting in the share tanking back to pre consolidation levels. Thats what the poster meant by this, and can guarantee you a down day post consolidation because everyone knows consolidation = BAD. Been around far too long and never seen good come out of a consolidation. You are a complete novice if you think this share can consolidate and that's that. It will tank, I can guarantee you that.
Shareguru, grab a dictionary and look up a word for me. That word is context. Your lack of it in 88e and my affairs over at THG is amusing. Funny how you emphasise the down day yesterday over at thg, without the context of the massive rise the day before haha. Also share with us all the 10% rise today haha. Im up massively over there compared to you in this dog. Same story with 88E, and your head in the sand re previous failings and expecting all to be dandy this time around, and attempt to belittle anyone who dares ask why. That word again shareguru, CONTEXT. I hope your tiny brain can try to grasp that word and come back with an argument related to 88e and not my successes elsewhere. You can always tell the caliber of an individual by the response in the face of somebody with an alterior view....the less gifted upstairs among us always resort to personal insults and discrediting efforts. Keep searching shareguru, my posts go back since before you knew what stockmarket meant. Keep it professional, and 88e related.
Gman...I completely agree with you re the company having no choice but to dilute to keep the lights on. But my debate is shareholder value in this stock, and lack of. How many years now have we seen these silly presentations? Marketing fluff and no more. And your comment re 4p spike.....how many shares were in issue then vs today; I.e. what was the market cap then? Significantly less than what it is today. This share will never ever spike to 4p again; it would value the company at 800 million this time around! There is zero shareholder value to be had here, it has all been diluted away and will continue to be dliuted away. If this share does spike, sell into it immediately! It's the only value to be had here. Trade, rinse, repeat. That's what the smart money has done here for years.
Don't listen to the white noise of rampers here and get sucked into pretty company presentations which have time after time failed. Focus on your trade and nothing more.
Hahaha legend. He is like Tim Martin over at westherspoons on steroids.
He is taking a huge dump over the system as a leaving present. A final farewell fxck yoh to London markets and its participants.
Surely he wouldn't go on such a warpath without some sort of announcement to burn said pond scum?
MMs post on LinkedIn is telling. In fact, I have done exactly the same sort of thing before.
Just before I quit a job, i submitted a letter stating to management all the things that are very wrong with the company and outlining the reasons I left. This sounds very much like that, and it's definitely something you would do when on the cusp of being in a position you will no longer find yourself in shortly.
This will certainly cause a stir among any shorts tomorrow, and I am definitely feeling that was the intention of the letter. Stating a farewell to UK markets and an up yours to the shorts that have made his life quite miserable.
Let's say for a laugh that the miracle happened and 88e actually managed to drill a well that flowed (even though a stopped clock has been right more times), but an amusing thought experiment none the less....
Has anyone taken a look at the mcap recently? £100m! The level of dilution here makes a westherspoons pitcher look neat.
Here's a fun fact: this time last year there were approx 15.9bn shares in issue. Today there are 20.1bn shares. Going further back the magnitude of dilution really becomes apparent. Anyway, an approximately 30% annual dilution rate.....and for what exactly? Wheres SH cash gone over the years of this happening? Why hasn't anyone told this company that dust isnt worth anything yet?
Anyway, the point is, even if the well flows commercially, how high does anyone expect this to go? What sort of flow rates would they need to actually get this moving. The spikes of 2 - 3p days are long behind us now such is the magnitude of dilution. Realistically, even getting above 1p would be a stretch. If this company fails again...I would like to think the market would pull the plug. But you always have a couple of diehard fools that have invested so much time energy and money that they will never see the wood through the trees. That's the type of people the bod rely on to keep their salaries.
Results didn't do anyone any favours today as speculators now jumping ship.
This was always a long term plan for me, and for anyone who is considering a bid. Apollo won't care one bit about today's numbers; in fact it's more than likely that they were already privy to these results. PE will extract value by breaking off each division, binning the driftwood, streamlining and pocketing the gold.
Still very early days for any bid, but its strange all the talk of apollos interest being false and manufactured.
Still, who doesn't love a bit of excitement.
Going to see a lot of fun and games over the coming days/weeks. I have an average of around 50p so won't be budging from my position here until an offer is put in the table.
If this gets back into the 60s, I'll probably buy more. Bring on that horizon, whatever it is.
That being said, we all know PE have been sniffing around for a while, and this may force the hands of those lurking in the background who have been watching and waiting? If we get more than 1 interested party, things could get really start to get heated and very exciting.
Let's be sensible and rational here. Any offer will probably be c£1.50 +- 20p or so.
Of course results will play a very important part. It will give us an indication of how willing MM will be to sell, and how willing we are to approve the deal. I still believe we should go it alone as we are doing quite fine as it is.
That being said, MM has already rejected offers around the 1 and a half quid range, so surely apollo will bear this in mind. Plus there are green shoots from key growth markets re inflation peaking. I can't imagine the offer getting close to or surpassing £2 however, simply based on the VWAP of THG over the last 12 months.
But yes, exciting times. I for one am holding out for a price I have in mind I believe THG is currently worth to apollo. We have a little bit further to travel yet methinks.