Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
And scot, the market obviously doesnt agree with your analysis, and hasnt done so for years. Why do you think posting literally the same thing on here daily will change that? You are clearly frustrated in your belief that 88e is worth less, but lets examine that.
You just talk about tangible assets a company holds. Valuing a company goes way beyond that, and focusing on just tangibles alone is plain wrong. Even things like charisma of particular CEOs adds value to AIM companies! When do you ever hear the name of PANR's Director compared to, for example, the DW of old here. Yes he ramped, but his style got the right people excited and made them hand over hundreds of millions. This has value! Your view is far too one dimensional. You only care and talk about assets in the ground. The simple fact that you hear more about 88e than PANR could make 88e oil worth more. Whether you like it or not, you need to factor this into your valuation calculation under non-tangiables. If you dont consider this, you are missing a vital part of the valuation equation which i reckon goes some way to explaining why the market likes 88e's barrels more than PANR's.
Well, good to see no one is reiterating that this phase of the test is destined to be a duster. Wouldnt you say so olderwiser?
A few snipbits of olderwisers not so wise words over the last week that really didnt age very well at all;
"this RNS screams failure of the USFS to me, the wording is just so flat, this company spins up everything, so no enthusiasm means a poor result"
25th march: "Which means the well has already been shut in, so nothing is now returning to surface. There will be no flare for Dalton highway users to photograph"
"My opinion is that RNS is so lacking in enthusiasm, or the mention of oil flow, that it is a very poor result, and this RNS is the softener"
"Thats a funny one, I tend more towards fact than fantasy, can you not determine the difference. Catch up this coming Thursday"
"Reading and comprehending a 88e RNS is a skill, focus on what is not said, we will see soon enough"
Well come on now olderwiser, here we are on results day where you were adamant the USFS was a dud and telling everyone how you would be right come results. Dont be bashful. Care to explain your skillful analysis of the RNS's released by 88e, your comments re fake flare which obviously werent fake, and the 70bopd flow rate achieved vs your estimates of zero? Every analysis of yours was totally wrong. You completely misread the company and their new style.
Of course when you are ready. plenty of egg to wipe off your face yet.
Haha fake...righttt olderwiser. if you say so. Your name isnt Donald by any chance is it? Just man up and admit you were wrong and stop spreading misinformation based on nothing but your poor interpetation of data put in front of you. As this flare image was taken on 28th, it was likely from upper SFS. This image is as clear as day taken on the side of the highway, yet you decry this as fake news but more than happy to definitively state no flare from a crappy, grainy satellite image. Talk about picking and choosing pieces of information to suit your own narrative! How predictably unobjective and moronic.
As it has been pointed out, common sense suggests that if a fake flare image were to do the rounds, it would have most certainly done so at an opportune moment, namely when markets were open perhaps? But no, this particular person decided in his infinite wisdom to post a "fake" during the weekend when results for upper SFS will almost certainly be out before the chance to profit from said fake. Makes about as much sense as you do olderwiser.
Once again, your extrapolation of information leaves much to be desired. So let me walk you through the new line of thinking here as you seem to have problems with extrapolation...
Now, more likely than not, based on new information presented to us, is it more likely than not we are flaring gas? Answer: Yes!
As you were so adamant and fierce in pointing out last week that no flare = no oil, conversely now we have a flare, will we now be equally as fierce in the suggestion that we now have oil olderwiser?
Will you admit we have oil now, or continue with this bs FUD crusade of misinformation? Logically speaking, you have already admitted it given your no flare = no oil equation!
To see a flare is obviously a great sign of oil coming to the surface. The question is now, how well does it flow and in what quantity? Very best of luck to all, and hope come tuesday 8am we will all be sitting very pretty indeed.
What factually incorrect information OW?? The information handspring posted was factually correct! Where is the implication in that post where he referred to 88e injecting flare gas into the ground? Perhaps you should go get your reading glasses, or are we all missing something?
I'll tell you what is factally incorrect. You stating that there is no flare at hickory. Do you have a 24 hr infrared camera on the side of the dalton highway overlooking the hickory site??? No! So how can you lecture someone over misinformation when you base your so called "facts" on snapshot, grainy infrared images taken of the site that occured days apart?? If that is your data input, your output conclusions are not going to be very reliable are they?
So stop spreading misinformation regarding lack of flare at the site based on unreliable data and linking that piece of misinformation to conclude that there is no oil in the flowback.
The heard expecting a duster similar to those of time gone by.
Lets remember what happened when the heard expected gushers...and the results after. This sell off into results is a very positive indicator to me! I added into close.
No ramp up at all into results. Market very subdued. Certainly feels different than on the eve of results in times gone by here. As a contrarian, this is a good indicator for me. When everyone else has given up hope, BAM. They hit a home run.
Stocks make the most agressive moves upwards when the market is caught totally offguard. For once, the expectations here are at an all time low. Lets hope the company can finally bat the home run they so desperately need.
You cant help but think, given the history, the very fate of the company now rests with the results of this well. If this well doesnt flow, the Mcap will implode and will leave behind a brown dwarf type remenant of a company that will slowly dim as time passes until eventually, the light will go out.
We discussed this last night olderwiser; unfortunately for some reason our thread got removed/deleted. I thought we concluded that during testing, any flaring is likely to be intermittent short bursts. We also do not know the downhole oil/gas ratios, so we do not know the constant in the equation oil flow is proportional to gas flow, i.e by what factor is it proportional? The relationship is logarithmic.
So to state that lack of flaring means zero (or near zero oil flow), this is simply not true at all.
We also saw a document ftom the state of alaska posted by another member stating restrictions on flaring for longer than an hour (except for pilot light and emergencies). To purposely flare excess gas for long periods of time is illegal except for emergencies in the state of alaska.
In conclusion...we are not expecting to see a roaring dirty great flame from the flare stack for days on end during flowback. To suggest otherwise is just plain factually incorrect.
Yeah, fair enough Olderwiser.
I dont believe DW thought icewine would be a duster from the outset, and looking at the data, you could argue the probablity for good news was high hence the pre results ramping. In hindsight, this was a terrible idea. "Probability of good news" has meant nothing in the past, and pre results ramping based on probability of good news has lead to disasterous results. So based on history, logic would dictate the following where 88e is concerned:
- Ramp up from company into results = duster
- no ramp up = sucess?? (we never had this scenario before)
Probability of good news aside, i can only see it as a good thing that the company have finally learnt from their past mistakes of agressively ramping into results, which has lead them to dusters and disaster in the past. Has this leopard changed its spots? We can only know for certain when results come out.
And i would hardly call that a ramp where it clearly states in the bottom table 88e's share of resources. Even caling that a subtle ramp is a stretch of the imagination.
And look what happened in the past when 88e put a positive spin on things!
The fact they are remaining much more tight lipped and not being as rampy can only be interpreted as good. Let the results talk....then raise. What good would a rampy RNS do now regarding getting away a capital raise given the results are literally a couple of days away?? That would only benefit traders. The company have had months to ramp this to get away a raise, yet we havent seen any ramping at all. This is where your arguement falls over. We have seen a completely new RNS style throughout this campaign.
I dont see how you think a rampy RNS of the old DW days would be interpreted as positive! That would be history repeating itself.
Maybe they learnt their lesson from previous failiures Older. This used to get savagely ramped by DW back in the day if there was a sniff of oil. Look how disasterous that ended up. If 88e mentioned oil in flowback in some bombastic RNS, this would have got savagely ramped allowing traders to profit. Under promise, over deliver! Nothing wrong with a flat RNS...as long as they deliver the goods come results.
Mystic also has a point. PANR lending ther expertise would only happen if it was worth their efforts. I cannot see this backscratching happen if PANR expected a duster.
Cant believe i am saying this, but even putin is right on one thing. Getting caught up in RNS semantics is pointless, as there is no reading between the lines there. Its a straightfrward RNS detailing when results are expected. Nothing more, nothing less. Why would they mention any oil shows in flowback if results are to be released in a few days? That would be very rampy to me, and a massive sell signal.
There is one massive positive in that RNS!!!
The company have stated clearly the results will be with us by the end of this week. Before this release, we were all thinking that there could be a major delay in the release. Now that simply isnt the case. On AIM, knowing when news will hit without any major delay is very positive.
I expect the SP to react accordingly.
Yes igor. Nothing more sinister than that. If there were technical issues or serious disruptions, the company would be legally obliged to inform us.
But now we know it is happening. They spelled it out for us clear as day now, so the SP should now begin to move north in anticipation.
Yup, results for the first zone will definitely be next week as expected (Thu or Fri), with operations ending mid april with second zone results following. We all knew the deadline slipped a little, but a couple of weeks is immaterial.
So there we have it. Lets see how the market reacts to that, as now the company have put a definitive timeline on results for the first zone!
Now is the time to take your positions people! Now is the time to be in or out. Lets see what the SP does in anticipation of a definitive newsflow date.
You would think that to have any sort of credibility going forward (not that they have much going into this test given their track record), at least the first test zone needs to be complete by the end of march, which is effectively until Friday next week.
Given the last RNS on the 11th, i firmly believe first zone testing should be complete by the end of march, so hopefully we recieve an update next week. Lots of SP movement next week as it is surely the last full week before results come in, and many will be taking positions. Now would be the time for the speculative ramp up into results if there is to be one.
As for those commenting on 88e and its valuation and comparison to the likes of others such as PANR, for some reason unbenown, the market does price 88e at a premium like for like despite its past (which trust me, i am equally puzzled). But to say this valuation is inaccurate is also inaccurate in its own way as after all, the market dictates a value, and this premium valuation has remained for such a period of time now as it is safe to say that it has become normalised/baselined. It is illogical based on this to suggest that the SP will not increase if 88e does in fact flow commercial oil which will improve on this baseline the maket has given 88e. The SP will certainly move if they find commercial oil! However what i will say is that if 88e fail to flow commercial, perhaps the premium valuation "spell" would break, and valuation models such as Scots could come into play. Funny old things are stock markets, right or wrong doesnt really matter for long periods of time. It just is what it is...until it isn't.
A very exciting week ahead, and many will be firmly watching 88e for any signs of a breakout. If 88e do finally strike oil, then the SP will increase significantly. That I have no doubt about.
Good luck to all!
Still all to play for here! An uptick in derampers is a good sign for things to come. Holding firm here.
So what banditputin? Dont mock others misfortunes as what goes around usually comes around. At least shareguru had balls to sell his burger van. Heres hoping he will own his own fleet after 88e flows and gobs in your burger.
GLA, and filter the noise! not long now
As usual on AIM, the small PI does the heavy lifting and takes all the risk. Big business and end users get all the reward in a nice neat, derisked package without a care in the world regarding how many millions it took to get there. Thats just how the world here works.
As always, its all about timing. Holding an AIM stock is an utter mugs game and is not how this game should be played unless you want to keep your shirt.
Indeed. seen so many times oil fields that had oil in them which were commercial on paper, but low natural flow rates and fast tapering of these rates meant artificial lift was required. This costs millions of dollars, very high risk and lots of time. So many have come a cropper over this. "0.5million minimum"? i dont even know what that means. Was that the lowest flow rate seen throughout the testing campaign? what was the peak flow rate seen, and under what conditions, i.e choke size ect? Its odd that a more detailed explanation of these figures is always left out on HE1.
How sustainable is that flow rate even? We wont know until the EWS is carried out. You cannot blame the market for reacting the way it has.
My money is on a JV with Noble. It makes a lot of sense, both operate in the same area, both looking at the same data ect.
But yes, the scary part is the cost to bring to production. Early days, but the well doesnt flow naturally as well as we all hoped. Still, very early days and a ton of variables that need to become constants.