The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Well said Sefton.
The fact that share prices don’t necessarily reflect true value - well that’s the whole game, isn’t it? That’s why we’re here on a message board devoting our time to the story of PRD.
A lot of us here believe there could be a monumental share price vs value discrepancy to be taken advantage of right now.
An observation - as of yesterday, 91% of Spreadex clients were long PRD. For the vast majority of small caps this number is 100%, so the short interest is notable. I'm unable to get more detailed info other than the headline number (and unsure how to get the same from IG index, the other provider who covers PRD).
Today that figure is 100%.
I think this could be either:
1. Related to the placing (shares issued today), with forward selling via spread betting sites
2. Related to the bashers, who have now moved on
Thought I would share, may be of interest to some
SOU up 50% today on announcement of LNG deal
Nobody likes being 'down 300%' (copyright Excelsior), so it made me think of potential near term share price catalysts for PRD...
On the upside:
* LNG deal for Morocco, maybe something similar to that which SOU have agreed
* LNG deal for Ireland, as mentioned in last RNS 28/07
* T&T EOR deal, as mentioned in last RNS 28/07
* MOU-1 tested as commercial
* Updated CPR for MOU-4 with expected increase in target size and CoS
* Purchase of near-production well in another basin per RNS 19/07
* Positive T&T EOR update on Iniss-Trinity (we know it's delayed, but could still be cranking up to decent numbers soon)
* Terms of deal & timeframe for EOR on PS-1 with LOL, per RNS 04/06
Negative price catalysts
* MOU-1 deemed non-commercial (already in price?)
* negative T&T EOR update
A number of the projects are designed to bring in cash, which could remove the uncertainty around funding of MOU-4 drill programme (so doubly good for share price).
Risk-reward seems very heavily weighted to the upside.
Naming is all political.
Project rainbow wasn’t a great name, issues with appropriating the rainbow flag from the gay crowd.
Mag Mell is not just the name of the project, it’s the name of the subsidiary - I think they’re trying to sugar coat for the greens.
Anyway - I see that Sound energy have announced something this morning with LNG deal in Morocco.
highlandmatt,
He would already consider the share options as part of his holding, even though they relate to shares not currently in issue.
If he is selling shares to exercise options, then he is giving away his upside on the shares sold so that PRD can raise funds.
It may be dilution, but it's dilution we should have expected at some point (in a success case).
Agree - thanks to Jasper for doing the groundwork here. But I think it's important to tie this in with the company's cash requirements, something that was causing a lot of panic last week.
RP selling shares just to exercise his options wouldn't make much sense on it's own, but if the net result is additional cash raised by PRD, then it does. This is cash that might have otherwise had to come via an increased placing size along with increased dilution.
This is still speculation at the moment, but it would certainly explain things.
We should get an RNS in due course if these options are exercised. Not sure if the T&T criteria have been met yet.
"Evaluate opportunity to complete an existing well for gas production in another basin in Morocco."
Another basin? Is this one of the secret projects? This reads like we are looking to purchase an existing discovery elsewhere, presumably not in plans of current owner, and take steps to move it into production and sell the gas.
The tombola has stopped spinning and it's... precious and base metals in Kazakhstan:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EST/proposed-acquisition-of-gold-projects-suspension/15063809
two projects:
- 1 x gold
- 1 x copper, zinc, gold sulphide belt
https://www.dvkaz.com
Jagshemash
Cluelesstim,
They may be estimated numbers for T&T but it is in production now and they are the best we have to go on.
MOU-1 scoping study was hypothetical and conditional, so not really comparable.
In either case, an RNS on T&T progress would be nice.
£2m-3m from Innis-Trinity
Then you add in whatever is agreed for LOL’s Palo Seco field
Then you add in the next contract
And so on
It’s quite feasible PRD T&T will have annual recurring revenue of £10m+ in the next 12-18m
How much would you pay for that business?
I think de-risk is the key word here, and that any success was always going to require more drilling.
From RNS on 6th May:
"As previously guided, results from MOU-1 may potentially de-risk up to 1,823 BCF of prospective High Estimate gross recoverable gas resources in the Tertiary and in the MOU-4 Prospect to provide the basis for a further drilling programme, including appraisal and exploration wells, when the Star Valley rig becomes available again later in 2021."
From today's RNS:
"MOU-1 ... most importantly de-risked the pathway required for dry gas from a thermogenic origin to charge the primary targets in a prospective area of over 100 km². MOU-1 therefore further enhanced the CPR prospective gas resources assigned to the proposed MOU-2 and MOU-4 drilling targets whilst adding some additional potential shallow targets that had previously not been considered."
I'm no expert, but looking back over the recent RNS announcements things seems to be going to plan.