The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
In light of recent board activity I thought I was share some info from last July, on the day of the MOU-4 drill results.
In the public PRD telegram group a certain poster, called Captain Sensible, claimed to be invested in both PRD and CHAR and was quite dismissive of the MOU-4 results. He proclaimed them to be indicative of a duster ('no mention of gas').
I and a few others thought they were excellent (they were) and put our views forward, but a number of other posters backed up Captain Sensible who had 'demonstrated good industry knowledge' in the CHAR group.
This group of alleged joint-holders controlled the narrative from 7am onwards through to the market open.
I joined the CHAR telegram group (so I could see which PRD posters were also members there) and learned that Captain Sensible was a prominent CHAR investor, close to the board and generally waxing lyrical about the company (in contrast to the subtly negative views in PRD group). He referred to PRD as 'mickey mouse' within the CHAR group and was generally disparaging of PRD there. In my opinion he did not post anything to demonstrate he was particularly knowledgeable.
You will recall that a second RNS was issued 2 days letter clarifying the excellent results, together with an interview where Paul made angry reference to certain people undermining the company.
I don't know whether Paul was referring to the Telegram group or if he is aware what is posted there.
I don't know if this disinformation campaign had any effect on the share price.
The CHAR telegram group is now private.
I don't care about CHAR, but I care when PRD is under attack.
There is a certain LSE poster with a very similar posting history to Captain Sensible.
Can't make it, but recommend going if you can (I went to the Sept 2022 one). The management is a big part of the PRD investor case (one which divides opinion) and this offers the opportunity to speak candidly with Paul and Lonny after the presentations (away from restrictions of regulatory comms, ONHYM etc.)
* General Election in Ireland is set for March 2025.
* Eamon Ryan's DECC hope to conclude their review of PRD's successor authorisation for Corrib South in Q1 2024 and will be writing to the company shortly (as per Corporate update 26-Jan-24)
* The DECC extended Europa Oil and Gas's Inishkea West licence on 31 Jan 2024
"Ireland has taken us by surprise. We remain cautiously optimistic that we potentially have a partner for Corrib South in the event a successor authorisation is awarded. There is no guarantee that the conclusion of the GSRO DECC process would necessarily result in a positive outcome for the Company. Corrib South is a quality exploration asset adjacent to the Corrib gas field infrastructure and was formerly held by Shell under a Reserve Licence authorisation."
"will be published"...using a bit of poetic licence there. Exact phrase was "expected to be released". The first word of ITR is Independent, i.e. someone else is producing the report so PRD are unable to give a firm commitment.
* Predator have seemingly made a large onshore gas discovery in a favourable jurisdiction, with huge upside potential from Jurassic prospect not to mention the rest of the licence (all big and connected?). Flow testing expected to start in within weeks (for reals this time).
* Predator have made a typo in their latest operational update.
Focus on whichever of these you like
The raise proceeds were never directly allocated for drilling. The July 31st update discussed the possibility of using a debt instrument to fund CNG development (in event of successful flow test), which would then free up CNG cash for drilling instead.
Since this update we have closed T&T using the discretionary cash (excess of amount raised over amount required), which opens up a new finance option for the drill. This would be plan A if we can keep to timelines.
Other things which may have changed since 31/7 funding-wise:
- we are not testing as comprehensively as planned (for now)
- Afriquia MoU suggests a potential change to CNG funding plan (lower cash required from PRD)
- spaffed more money into the dessert (h/t Nige)
PG has reiterated the strong balance sheet in all recent comms. I think the plan will be to see how testing plays out then reassess - we seem to have options.
Wow, the bottom-feeding trolls have been working hard this weekend. What a miserable existence. Must realise this week is their last chance to attempt to get a lower entry before momentum starts to build for upcoming news.
Indeed the point I was making is that delays are built into the price for T&T too (and are the base case for my own expectations).
If T&T updates remains in line with guidance (re-entry of first well Q1/Q2 2024) then we have a timely route to self-finance, and the re-rate that would come with that.
"By the second half of 2024 TRex is expected to be generating significant positive cash flow from workover operations."
..and the plan is for that to fund Moroccan drilling. Will be great if this happens, but people are rightly sceptical of timelines being hit.
PG also makes the point that:
"There is a significant and diversified well services industry in Trinidad. Cory Moruga is an existing Production Licence that does not require additional regulatory approvals before value-generating operations can be executed."
i.e. we *shouldn't* get delays the kind of which we have faced in Morocco and for which we are all frustrated. Will follow T&T progress with interest. Meanwhile, some flow testing...
“The Company will maintain an opportunistic strategy with respect to potential sale or farmout of some project equity where market conditions are conducive to such transactions and the commercial terms are attractive. Given that the Company is well-financed to deliver all of its current near-term firm strategic objectives for its substantially de-risked oil and gas portfolio, any dilution of project equity would need to be a compelling value proposition for shareholders.“
AV,
I responded with a factual response to your fud the previous night about ‘100% sells’ as you seemed to not understand the way LSE tags trades. You also seemed to not understand my response as you repeated your false statement.
From this it is logical to assume you are both an inexperienced investor and a dimwit. This would also have been helpful to other board readers who can assign the appropriate level of attention to your posts, if they had been in any doubt.
Lots of opinions on this BB, some more useful than others. How about the views of Fox-Davies from latest broker note? Yes they are paid by PRD but they also have significant industry experience and are putting their reputation on the line publicly. They also have a direct line to the management team and can add a different insight. I think the latest one helps frame the latest updates very well (and I think PRD and/or FD should have promoted this note better - even a link on twitter to acknowledge it)
***
Our view
The share price momentum had stalled since the last placing, due to the continuous delays in the testing programme and the uncertainty about the actual start of testing.
We believe this operational update provides clarity on the timing of the testing programme and certainty that all is now in place for it to happen in timely manner.
This should reassure the market and de-risk the shares somewhat.
The announcement of the MOU with Afriquia is another de-risking event which removes any conceivable commercial risk on the CNG venture up to 50MMscfd and should add further impetus to the share price.
The flexibility around which party will bear the investment into CNG trailers is also a key feature of this agreement as it potentially shields Predator from this capital-intensive part of the business value chain.
Most importantly the transport and distribution of potential CNG production will be carried out by an entity with the relevant experience and expertise in the downstream sector. This will relieve Predator of a significant future operational burden to allow the Company to focus on its core strength of drilling and early stage project development where the scope to capture value in the exploration, appraisal and development cycle is highest.
We have revised the commercial risk ratings for the CNG assets in our sum-
of-the-parts to account for these announcements, with only a residual
commercial risk remaining. As a result, our Total risked NAV is broadly
unchanged at 37.4p (vs. 37.6p previously) and our 12-month target price
remains 35p (Figure 1 for revised NAV and Figure 2 for previous NAV).