Member Info for Trickymatters

Superb. Few extracts.

'If you have diabetes you have to have a test for kidney disease. You need to know. Whether it's a low risk, a medium risk or a high risk, you need to know. Because if you have chronic kidney disease there are drugs that can manage and reduce deterioration'...

'We are entering a new paradigm once we have lcd coverage'.

'Everybody wins- the insurance industry wins because they are saving the very expensive costs of dialysis, the government wins...the economy wins, patients and would be patients win... we win'.

'I can not see a reason why a health care insurer would not want to know the risk of the customer. This is the solution to managing preventative approaches to kidney disease. The adverse consequences are already evident.'

'We are working on educating physicians alongside big pharma'.

'I think we're in a win-win situation'.

' We should be looking at getting lcd coverage by September or sooner'

'the margin on $950 is very significant'

'A final LCD means we can service the entire Medicare population with kidneylx'.

Could be a planted story. Murdoch press are çorrupt. Could be real. Certainly taking there time agreeing the Ukef funds. Crossed fingers for you all. I bailed this morning because I suspected the delay was related to lack of certainty on interest rates and I noticed that Abingdon Health have got their pregnancy test in Boots today. Saliva test- should be very disruptive to current products. So saved from this slump by opportunism and pure luck. Don't think you'll have a blockbuster RNS tomorrow. Think you'll just get a denial. Which still won't tell you much.

I will buy back when the court hearing is scheduled. When IM is sold it should get et back on track. Courts are backed up. Useless, useless Tories cutting et to bits. GLA.

I'm in. Abingdon is looking really exciting atm. The saliva pregnancy test is brilliant for women. So much simpler to use. I'm sure it will sell really well. Should be a disruptive product within a few months. And a few years on the patent, could easily be dominating the market for pregnancy tests soon enough.

I will be tuning into the presentation. Can anyone share the link?

The sales launch was April 2024. Good level of sales in the first 3 weeks. Revenue closer to a million. Irrelevant though. What is relevant is that lcd final recommendation is expected in the 'near term'. That's when the offers for a takeover will come in as serious propositions. You can't sell much without getting lcd coverage. The US pays for it's healthcare through an insurance system. I am assuming everyone knows this including Paddyboy.

I think they'll tell us tomorrow when the lcd decision is likely. As they have suggested they will do in the notice of results. And about how new strategic partnerships will work. They have not told us who the bidder is. They have actioned and agreed suspension of the relevant takeover code with the FCA so they don't need to tell the market yet. I expect them to tell the market who the bidder is within days of getting lcd coverage. By which time I expect that new bidders will materialise.

My expectation is that they will tell us about their strategy, business partnerships, regulatory pathway and reimbursement expectations. All good.

Good call SB. AstraZeneca still campaigning on the danger of kidney diseases to world economies. They made 6 billion dollars last year on their leading drug treatment for ckd. Strong signals that RENX will get lcd coverage for the whole of the US. Then it will be game on. Or I guess I'll have to eat my hat ;)

You are right SB. They avoided consolidating their losses with debt through the recent fundraise. Which will go on if they go it alone. As you and I have both observed there are mixed messages about whether they want a sale or whether they intend to sell the product themselves. Not their core skills so that's why I think they want to sell. Being deliberately ambiguous. Bit obvious to those interested parties but not without merit as a bargaining chip for a small company positioning themselves to engaging with pharma giants.

I won't reference 'debt' again. I meant they're spending more than they're making. Lazy. Apologies.

I won't cry if they get £1.00. Neither will new bond holders? Unless some of them have previously invested, as you have, at much higher levels.

But realistically they should get £300 million. A big pharma with a high industry profile, manufacturing core skills or good outsourcing relationships will make a billion a year from the US alone. Add to this additional sales from ckd drugs already worth tens of millions to both AZN and TF and it's a valuable investment.

It's important to the US health insurance industry to get this right too. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed.

For us but not for the States. I can see Renx getting a lift on Monday without our day traders causing a bit of a drag.

Buddhabob, broker says £2.00. Ordinarily I'd say could go for £3.50. It's a finished and FDA approved product. If it gets LCD for which all the signals are very good, big pharma will make the most of first mover advantage. It will be worth billions and increase sales of their ckd drugs. But they're vulnerable because of the debt they have incurred in getting to this point as a small company. So they have some room to manoeuvre but not much. They will take £2.00 I think. Maybe a bit less.

It's going up in anticipation of lcd approval including Medicare and the whole US insurance industry. Imagine what will happen when it's approved. Market of 10 million at risk of chronic kidney disease, where the insurance industry have a vested interest in getting those at risk tested, because acute kidney disease is way more expensive and usually ends someone's working life if they can't get a kidney donor. 950 dollars per test is the approved price already agreed. FDA approved. US government contracting on behalf of public services and the US Veteran's already buying. LCD coverage is the last hurdle to first out of the box, comprehensive market penetration. Hold for a few months and you'll be well happy.

The price suggests a buy. Not showing in the tally so far.

Hope not. They have plenty of money to take them through to lcd coverage for the US health insurance industry. Expected coverage for 10 million people at 950 dollars a time. Might just be iis getting in, in expectation of a decision this month. Consultation ended March 23rd.

I've been investing in bio-meds for years. They have to clear all the ŕegulatory hurdles before they get sales. Sometimes new drugs for big markets get bought out at phase 3, rarely at phase 2. Big pharma are always happy for the little guys to take all the risk. And market makers/bond holders etc always make sure it's a bumpy ride for us too.

Diagnostics are no easier. They want a finished product with full endorsements. We're nearly there.

Be mad to sell now. It will multi-bag as soon as the LCD recommendation comes in. It's listed on Nasdaq. If it happens after hour trading hours it could be £1 the next morning.

SB, they can't sell much without the LCD. The rest is just skimming the edge of this market. LCD will set off the real penetration. Bit of a stand off going on. Bond holders behaviour is short termist. They don't care because they still have a hefty investment left anyway.

Blimey. £2 after averaging down. Maybe peaked too early there mate.

We're involved in a speculative activity. Everything is risky. I have made the averaging down tactic work for me. As SB has clearly explained the bond holders are converting their bonds by the looks of it. They're making profit right down to 20p. Not many buyers because RENX approach in the last significant RNS to position themselves as being prepared to go it alone is a mixed signal when they have also announced a bidder. I suspect that the bidder has put in an offer that Renx are not inclined to accept.

They are assuming that the talk of going it alone gives them more time for the enormity of the opportunity to kick in once they get recommended. They might get a couple of big orders straight off. But looks like a bit of a bluff to me. They don't have the scale to go large right now anyway. They're just trying to increase their bargaining power. Big pharma will be the ones who cash in. And any of us who are in at a low price like this obviously.

We'll get an update when the US insurance industry report on their decision. The consultation ended in the third week of March. We may have weeks to wait. We may have days. The current sp will soon be irrelevant. Not sure you'll get a great return from a £2 entry SB. I would take the opportunity to average down if I were you. The broker says it will go for £2.00. That's my assumption. Could be £1.50. They're vulnerable with their debt. Potential buyers will be quite aware of that. On the other hand potential buyers will be aware that there will be competition. Two of the biggest pharma companies in the world are in the space for chronic kidney disease. The insurance industry will back this and then you have a market of about 10million people in the US who will benefit from the early intervention available through this test. Ckd can be managed. Acute kidney disease is a personal tragedy that nobody wants. I expect it to be aggressively marketed by the insurance industry themselves. They don't want to endure the much more expensive consequences of acute kidney disease- dialysis, kidney replacements, kidney removal, early mortality when they don't have to. It's a lifesaver and it will help extend good quality of life for millions.

We're on the up.😊